Lookonchain APP

App Store

Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time Bitcoin whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 8425 updates and counting.

2026.08.18 20:19

Glassnode Warns: Bitcoin Faces 'Absence of Buyers', May Drop to $52,800 if It Falls Below $58,500

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode says the Bitcoin market is in a "highly contracted" state, with selling pressure from sellers easing but buyers yet to enter noticeably. BTC is currently fluctuating mainly between $63,000 and $68,700, with market trading activity dropping to its lowest level since 2019. Glassnode data shows the 30-day Seller Exhaustion Constant has fallen to its lowest level since 2013, though a historic market bottom signal has not yet been confirmed. If BTC breaks below $58,500, the next support level could drop to $52,800. Crypto analyst CryptoBusy notes that the current degree of seller exhaustion is approaching levels seen in previous bear market bottoms, though deeper sell-offs have occurred in historical cycles, meaning Bitcoin may still need to release more selling pressure to complete market clearing. Michael Terpin, founder of Transform Group, predicts Bitcoin could bottom around $57,000 in October, and views complete seller exhaustion as a key signal for the end of the bear market. However, there is no consensus on market bottoming among analysts. Some analysts point out that only 2 of Glassnode’s 10 capitulation indicators have been triggered so far, putting BTC’s potential bottom at between $49,000 and $53,000. Analysts also add that before ETF inflows and spot trading volumes show a clear recovery, it is not enough to confirm the market has entered a sustained accumulation phase. Glassnode further warns that leveraged traders have already bet on a market recovery, but current on-chain and market data have not sufficiently supported this expectation.

2026.08.18 15:59

Analysis: If Bitcoin falls below $49,400, long-term holders will face overall losses, and selling pressure has now reached its lowest level in the cycle.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released an analysis showing on-chain data that Bitcoin’s long-term holder cost base stands at $49,400, with a current price multiple of 1.3x. Bitcoin has spent 78 consecutive days in the low-risk zone between the long-term holder cost base and 1.5x that level, where the 1.5x threshold corresponds to a price of roughly $74,100. Long-term holder supply currently sits at 16.35 million BTC, just 58,000 BTC below the all-time high of 16.41 million BTC recorded on July 30. Only two days of supply decline have been seen in the past 15 days, indicating the group’s selling frequency has nearly hit its lowest level. The analyst noted these two signals together point to: valuation remaining low relative to the long-term holder cost base, and long-term holders showing almost no sustained selling signs. He emphasized this combination is a “constructive supply structure” but does not alone constitute an independent signal that a new rally has begun. Current conditions show long-term holders as a whole are still in unrealized profit (price is roughly 30% above the cost base), and the market remains in the lower end of its historical valuation range. However, for a new uptrend to unfold, further confirmation from both demand and price sides is needed. If the price falls below $49,400, long-term holders will collectively shift into unrealized loss, entering a lower-risk zone from a valuation perspective, but meaning significantly rising pressure on long-term holders from a market condition standpoint.

2026.08.17 21:32

Analysis: Bitcoin spot liquidity weakness and ETF outflows are weighing on the market, but slowing capital outflows show initial signs of stabilization.

Glassnode’s Bitcoin Market Pulse Report notes that Bitcoin rebounded slightly after pulling back from the $65,000 level over the past week, but remains in a clear range-bound pattern overall. Spot trading volumes and on-chain transaction throughput have continued to contract, reflecting weak market liquidity and low participation. Derivatives markets are also cautious: leverage has expanded moderately, but aggressive trading in perpetual contracts has consistently leaned toward sellers, indicating more aggressive distribution activity. Positive funding rates signal bullish sentiment remains intact, while the options market continues to price downside protection, with premiums still high relative to realized volatility. Institutional demand has weakened in tandem: spot ETF volumes coincide with net outflows, aggregate holdings are near cost basis, leaving regulated investors with limited unrealized profit potential, and institutional accumulation has stalled temporarily. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a large portion of Bitcoin supply in loss, and realized losses consistently outpacing realized gains. The report also points out that the pace of broader capital outflows has begun to slow, an early sign that selling pressure may be stabilizing. The overall market structure remains caught between persistent short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient long-term holdings. Weak spot liquidity, soft institutional capital flows, and elevated realized losses all point to continued consolidation, while slowing outflows suggest the market may be approaching a more balanced state ahead of its next directional move.

2026.08.16 09:47

Harvard’s endowment fund discloses holding $2.21 billion worth of SpaceX shares, while its Bitcoin ETF holdings remain unchanged.

Harvard University’s endowment fund’s latest 13F filing shows that as of June 30, its holdings of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) remained at 3.0446 million shares, valued at approximately $101.4 million — matching the exact number held at the end of the first quarter, ending two consecutive quarters of reductions. Harvard had cut its IBIT position by 21% in Q4 2025, followed by a 43% reduction in Q1 2026. Currently, IBIT accounts for roughly 2.4% of Harvard’s disclosed $4.26 billion U.S. equity portfolio. Its gold-related product holdings are worth more: as of the end of Q2, its combined positions in the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) and SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) total approximately $171.2 million. Harvard previously liquidated its BlackRock spot Ethereum ETF holdings worth $86.8 million, and added no new Ethereum-related positions in the second quarter. Harvard’s largest holding is SpaceX, with 12,935,100 shares valued at $2.21 billion, making it the largest single stock position disclosed in the filing. The total U.S. equity assets Harvard disclosed in this filing are approximately $4.3 billion, meaning SpaceX’s stake accounts for 52% of that total. Among other institutions, Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council each maintained their IBIT positions unchanged at 14.7219 million shares and 8.2187 million shares respectively, for a combined value of approximately $764 million. JPMorgan Chase increased its IBIT holdings from roughly 8.3 million shares to 10.4 million shares; Morgan Stanley cut its IBIT position from 17.3 million shares to approximately 16.5 million shares, a 4.5% reduction.

2026.08.15 22:22

Analysis: Bitcoin is in the "extreme discount" zone of the Rainbow Chart, with its downward deviation surpassing that of the previous bear market bottom.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a post that Bitcoin is currently trading in the lowest range of the Rainbow Chart model — "basically a fire sale price". This represents an extreme discount relative to the cryptocurrency’s long-term price trajectory, and is not merely a measure of how much Bitcoin has declined. The Rainbow Chart model compares Bitcoin’s current price to its long-term trend, so the gap reflects the market’s deviation from historical patterns. The volatility-adjusted Z-Score now stands at -2.293, the lowest reading since 2016 and lower than the -1.979 recorded at the 2022 bear market bottom. This metric accounts for volatility differences across distinct market cycles, meaning the current downward deviation from the model is more severe than that seen at the last bear market’s trough. Bitcoin is now in an extreme discount zone, with the volatility-adjusted Z-Score hitting a 10-year low. This signals significant undervaluation relative to the model, but it does not alone confirm the final market bottom. Extremely low valuations point to a potentially attractive entry range, though a market reversal would need separate confirmation. Note: The Z-Score is a widely used standardized statistical metric that quantifies how far a data point lies from the mean, measured in units of standard deviation.

2026.08.15 15:13

Cboe applies to the SEC for approval of the first U.S. 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

The Cboe BZX Exchange, a unit of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe), has filed a rule change application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch the U.S. market’s first 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Per the filing, Cboe plans to list ETFs including 3x Bitcoin ETFs, 3x Ethereum ETFs, and 3x leveraged ETFs for gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas. These products aim to deliver 3x the daily returns of their underlying assets by holding futures contracts from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) or the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), with cash and cash equivalents serving as collateral. The proposed ETFs will operate as "commodity pools" regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than the traditional ETF structure overseen by the SEC under the Investment Company Act of 1940. As leveraged products do not meet the exchange’s existing general listing standards, Cboe is required to file a special rule change application with the SEC and plans to concurrently submit an S-1 registration statement under the Securities Act of 1933. Cboe stated that this structure will provide an additional federal regulatory layer. The funds will be issued by Volatility Shares LLC and operated under VS Trust. Market analysts note that 3x leveraged ETFs are primarily targeted at short-term trading and professional investors, and are not suitable as long-term holding instruments. Previously, Volatility Shares had launched 2x Bitcoin and Ethereum strategy ETFs in the U.S., while Europe saw the launch of the first 3x and inverse 3x Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products last year.

2026.08.14 23:03

Analysis: Bitcoin's short-term panic sentiment has eased, with the $60,000 to $70,000 range emerging as a key battleground.

Glassnode stated in a report that Bitcoin’s native options market remains generally sluggish overall, with implied volatility (IV) and skewness continuing to narrow, while positions are gradually concentrating around key strike prices, making the options market structure more distinct. Data shows Bitcoin’s short-dated IV has continued to decline, with the 1-period at-the-money (ATM) IV dropping to around 26%, while the 6-month tenor remains at roughly 39%. The term structure has steepened further, indicating traders’ low expectations for short-term price volatility, while still pricing in longer-term uncertainty. Demand for downside protection in the market has weakened, and overall option positions are no longer as defensive as they were previously. On the gamma exposure front, negative gamma is primarily concentrated in the lower $60,000 range, while positive gamma has gradually shifted to around $70,000. This means BTC is more likely to see larger price swings during downward moves, while upward approaches to the $70,000 level may be stabilized by market maker hedging. The options market’s defensive posture has eased somewhat, though it has not yet entered excessive complacency. The decline in implied volatility and skewness reflects easing short-term panic, while the concentration of gamma and strike positions indicates that the $60,000 to $70,000 range remains the key zone for Bitcoin’s next directional move.

2026.08.14 22:52

Morgan Stanley significantly increased its holdings of Circle to 8.32 million shares in Q2, and added to its positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Morgan Stanley’s latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shows that as of June 30, it held approximately 16.5 million shares of BlackRock’s IBIT, a 23% increase from the 13.4 million shares held in the first quarter. However, due to a decline in Bitcoin prices during the quarter, the position’s market value fell to $549 million from $667 million, a roughly 18% drop. During the same period, Morgan Stanley also held 2.57 million shares of MSBT worth around $43.3 million, and increased its holdings in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, and Fidelity’s FBTC, with FBTC positions rising nearly 38%. For Ethereum-related assets, its holdings of ETHA surged approximately 202% to 4.6 million shares, while its stake in Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF rose by around 26% to 5.1 million shares. Additionally, Morgan Stanley established new positions in Grayscale’s Solana Staking ETF and Fidelity’s Solana Fund, with respective market values of roughly $4.25 million and $2.26 million. In terms of individual stocks, Morgan Stanley’s holdings in Circle (CRCL) jumped from approximately 1.46 million shares to 8.32 million shares. It also expanded positions in crypto mining and infrastructure firms including Cipher Digital, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and Bitdeer. Conversely, it trimmed its Coinbase stake by around 550,000 shares, cut holdings in CleanSpark by more than 3.1 million shares, and liquidated its entire position of roughly 8 million shares in Bitfarms.

2026.08.14 22:31

JPMorgan boosted its holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Q2: its stake in IBIT rose by 25%, while its position in ETHA increased more than threefold.

JPMorgan Chase’s latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reveals that as of June 30, the firm held approximately 10.4 million shares of BlackRock’s IBIT—up roughly 25% from the 8.3 million shares it held in the first quarter, with a disclosed holding value of around $356 million. Over the same period, its position in BlackRock’s ETHA rose from roughly 267,000 shares to about 1.17 million shares, an increase of more than three times and exceeding four times its prior holding size. The filing also disclosed small holdings in XRP-related investment products for the first time, including 181 shares of Grayscale’s XRP product and 113 shares of Bitwise’s XRP ETF. Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, pointed out that this 13F covers 18 investment management entities under JPMorgan, with some positions potentially linked to client trades or inventory management. Since 13F filings do not disclose short positions, it is impossible to assess JPMorgan’s net exposure or directional views on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) solely based on these long positions. Separately, JPMorgan cut its holdings in multiple Bitcoin mining companies during the second quarter. Randin noted that as some mining firms expand into AI and high-performance computing, their status as proxy assets for Bitcoin prices is weakening.

← Prev Page 9 / 169 Next →

Popular tokens

BitcoinEthereumHyperliquidSolanaTRONBNBTetherAaveXRPPepeFartcoinOndoJupiterUniswapBonkPendleEthenaArbitrumAvalancheLidoChainlinkPolygonDogecoinCardano