Analysis: If Bitcoin falls below $49,400, long-term holders will face overall losses, and selling pressure has now reached its lowest level in the cycle.

According to U.S. officials, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other key aides discussed a scenario with Trump in the Oval Office and Situation Room: Even if the U.S. maintains its blockade and continues military operations, Tehran may still choose to resist, extending the conflict beyond the end of Trump’s term in January 2029. This assessment stands in sharp contrast to Trump’s public comments on Wednesday, in which he insisted the war would end “immediately” after the November midterm elections, as Iran “can’t hold on much longer.” The conflict is now in its seventh month, with 18 U.S. service members killed. Vance signaled last week that the conflict could drag on, saying he is uncertain when hostilities will end and refusing to provide “artificial timelines” that could be exploited by Iran. Signs of long-term war preparations are mounting. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has labeled the maritime blockade and sanctions strategy “Operation Economic Orphan,” framing it as an alternative to large-scale military operations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has extended the deployment of some U.S. troops in the Middle East through 2027; the Pentagon plans to prolong air defense deployments with no set withdrawal date, and a third Marine Expeditionary Unit is set to deploy to the region this fall. Brookings Institution Iran expert Suzanne Maloney argues that the maritime blockade is unlikely to produce decisive results in the near or even medium term, noting its only realistic application is tied to a long-term siege plan. International Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez points out that Washington can continue to pressure Iran at a manageable cost, while Tehran can shift most of the pain onto its own people. “All parties are paying a price, but neither side’s leadership has paid enough to accept the other’s terms.”

Last week, the European Commission adopted an enabling act expanding the Central Contact Point (CCP) framework—previously applicable only to e-money institutions and payment institutions—to Crypto Asset Service Providers (CASPs). This allows member state regulators to require locally operating crypto trading platforms and other such entities to designate local contacts. The revised CASPs are integrated into the anti-money laundering (AML) and compliance regulatory liaison network, giving regulators a fixed on-ground point of contact within their jurisdictions and strengthening information sharing and law enforcement cooperation.

Apple today unveiled its first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, alongside Chinese mainland pricing for its new iPhone lineup: the iPhone 18 Pro starts at 9999 yuan, the iPhone 18 Pro Max starts at 10999 yuan, and the iPhone Duo starts at 15999 yuan. At current cryptocurrency prices, the iPhone Duo’s price equals 0.025 BTC. Estimated Bitcoin prices of previous iPhone launches are as follows: iPhone XS Max – 0.169 BTC, iPhone 11 Pro Max – 0.107 BTC, iPhone 12 Pro Max – 0.068 BTC, iPhone 13 Pro Max – 0.024 BTC, iPhone 14 Pro Max – 0.056 BTC, iPhone 15 Pro Max – 0.045 BTC, iPhone 16 Pro Max – 0.019 BTC, iPhone 17 Pro Max – 0.010 BTC, iPhone 18 Pro Max – 0.016 BTC.

Renowned DeFi researcher Ignas notes that the current crypto-meme narrative relies on trading volume and transaction fees, not fundamentals. Once trading volume shrinks, dividends, buybacks, and token burns immediately decline, reducing traders’ incentive to hold, which usually leads to selling pressure. Coinbase’s trading volume hit $547 billion in Q4 2021, falling to $145 billion a year later—a roughly 74% drop; for meme tokens, a 50% cut in trading volume can trigger a market cap decline of over 95%. Uniswap’s trading volume has already started to fall. The same logic applies to established DEXs like ZCAT, STONK, PONS, INDEX, SHROOM, CASHCAT, and RAY, which use transaction fees for buybacks: once volume dries up, their incentives vanish. Robinhood Chain’s weekly fee revenue was roughly 73% of Uniswap’s UNI token burn revenue last week, indicating market enthusiasm persists—but all projects are tied to one core assumption: that people will keep trading. Trading interest will only last until traders stop making profits or grow fed up with losses. Extrapolating full-year returns from current fee revenue is essentially predicting the market will never cool down—a ridiculous proposition.

According to GMGN data, the on-chain meme token Bundle Cat (BUN) on Robinhood has surged to a market cap of over $37 million, hitting an all-time high, with a 24-hour gain of 38% and trading volume of $1.5 million. Bundle Cat (BUN) is the mascot of Mosh and its first experimental token. Mosh is an experimental token issuance framework not yet fully launched on Robinhood Chain, and Bundle Cat (BUN) serves as its first test run. Mosh is a protocol layered on the Robinhood Chain launch platform, centered on the fair launch narrative of "community lockups + AI market making". Note: This token is not a finalized governance token, and its official endorsement remains unconfirmed. Investors should exercise caution. BlockBeats reminds users that most meme tokens lack practical use cases, are highly volatile, and require careful investment consideration.

According to EmberCN’s monitoring, a trader spent $200,000 buying LAPTOP tokens last night, only for the value to plummet to just $700 a few hours later. The trader added to their position in the early morning, spending $49,000 to purchase 24,367 LAPTOP at a price of $2 per token. LAPTOP has now fallen to $0.8 per token. The trader currently holds 25,286 LAPTOP, with an average cost basis of $9.8 per token, resulting in a 92% unrealized loss of $227,000.