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Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time Bitcoin whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 8422 updates and counting.

2026.09.18 14:53

Willy Woo: Bitcoin’s Fisher Transform golden cross points to a bottom, marking the 4th bottom signal in history.

Renowned crypto analyst Willy Woo analyzed Bitcoin’s (BTC) monthly chart using the Fisher Transform indicator, noting that the current golden cross on the metric marks the 4th bottom signal in history, with no false breakouts in the prior three instances. However, Woo emphasized this is not an immediate reversal buy signal; prices may first consolidate sideways before moving in their original trend. He added that during bull markets, the Fisher Transform has previously triggered a bearish death cross followed by a bullish golden cross, with the uptrend still intact afterward. Woo distinguishes between market tops and bottoms: At tops, long-term investor buying dries up, while speculative buying continues to push prices higher. The rally relies on momentum rather than sustained long-term holding support, leading to frequent false turning points. As such, Woo’s strategy is to reduce positions gradually instead of predicting exact peak levels. At bottoms, price drops create a buying vacuum as speculative investors exit. When prices fall to levels long-term investors deem valuable, buying resumes. With speculative activity limited, reversals are cleaner, making many technical indicators more reliable at bottoms than at tops. The Fisher Transform is a technical indicator developed by U.S. quantitative researcher John Ehlers in 2002. It first compresses prices and applies a mathematical transformation similar to normalization to make price distributions closer to a bell curve. This causes the indicator to spike or drop sharply near extremes, with more distinct turning points. Traders typically use golden crosses/death crosses of the indicator’s two lines to identify potential turning points, though the Fisher Transform signals a possible shift in price rhythm rather than an immediate reversal.

2026.09.18 14:31

VanEck: Bitcoin Could Rise to $100,000 Next Year, Supported by Fiscal Concerns

VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel told CNBC in an interview that Bitcoin could surge to $100,000 next year, as concerns over government debt and fiscal sustainability underpin its price. Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared to four years ago, a clear indicator that this cycle differs significantly from the previous one. Widespread over-indebtedness among global governments has helped Bitcoin maintain its resilience, he added. Sigel also noted that put options are trading at a substantial premium to call options, and the U.S. Treasury’s repurchase (repo) program has triggered a large wave of short covering, making the current time window favorable for Bitcoin bulls. Policymakers are unlikely to resolve unsustainable fiscal conditions, and further easing of market liquidity would provide an even stronger boost to Bitcoin. Discussions between VanEck and institutional clients including investment advisors and sovereign wealth funds show that these entities are all buying Bitcoin. VanEck also forecasts that the stablecoin market will continue to grow. While stablecoin regulation has been enacted into law via the GENIUS Act, banking lobby groups are still attempting to renegotiate the relevant arrangements. Earlier, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, which aimed to establish a regulatory and market structure framework for crypto assets.

2026.09.13 17:34

Analysis: The majority of investors who bought Bitcoin (BTC) in the past 3 to 6 months are reluctant to take profits at present, and have shifted to medium- to long-term trading.

Analyst Murphy says on-chain data can clearly reveal the trading sentiment of representative investors in the current phase. First, the group that bought BTC in the past 3–6 months has seen very little profit. In other words, most of those who bought at the bottom during this period are unwilling to take profits at current levels. These are the STHs (Short-Term Holders) closest to LTHs (Long-Term Holders). Traders not selling now are likely targeting medium- to long-term positions. Additionally, the group that bought BTC in the past 6–12 months has suffered significant losses, almost covering all tokens accumulated during the entire bear market. Many LTHs in this group are not genuine believers; they only became long-term holders passively after incurring unrealized losses. Thus, they are the most volatile group during every major dip or rally. From a macro cycle perspective, BTC will not fully enter its next phase until this selling pressure is gradually exhausted. Recently, Murphy published an article discussing why Bitcoin has struggled to break through the $82,000 level. First, STHs’ (Short-Term Holders) tokens are concentrated between $59,000 and $81,000. A break above $82,000 would trigger profit-taking from some short-term speculative capital, creating the first layer of selling pressure. Second, the most concentrated price range for LTHs’ (Long-Term Holders) tokens is exactly between $81,000 and $82,000. LTHs tend to exit when prices approach their break-even point, forming the second layer of selling pressure. The analyst notes that breaking through $82,000 is indeed a short-term resistance, as the market needs time to resolve divergences and absorb supply. Once the market regains momentum and successfully breaks through, the path ahead will be clear.

2026.09.13 01:58

AI investment boom squeezes stock and bond allocations; institutions say Bitcoin could become the "third leg" of traditional portfolios.

Swiss crypto asset platform Bitcoin Suisse stated in its 2026 Crypto Wealth Management Report that surging AI investments, rising government debt, and growing stock-bond correlation are eroding the risk-diversification ability of the traditional "stock-bond mix", further boosting the necessity of allocating to Bitcoin. The report projects that major U.S. cloud computing companies will exceed $800 billion in AI capital expenditure this year, potentially hitting $1 trillion by 2027. Bitcoin Suisse notes that AI investments are concentrated in a small number of tech firms, while related infrastructure construction is accompanied by large debt financing, which may further amplify concentration risks in investment portfolios. Backtesting of traditional portfolios by Bitcoin Suisse found that adding 1%, 2.5%, 5%, or 10% Bitcoin to portfolios consisting of stocks, bonds, gold, and money market assets improves both absolute returns and risk-adjusted returns. Specifically, when shifting bond allocations to BTC, the annualized yield rises from 6.2% (without BTC) to 7.2% with a 1% BTC allocation and 8.6% with a 2.5% BTC allocation. The report clarifies that Bitcoin is not a traditional safe-haven asset, but its scarcity and return drivers distinct from stocks and bonds are expected to provide a new source of diversification for investment portfolios.

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