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PlanB: Bitcoin price has fallen below mining costs, future market performance hinges on a rebound in mining difficulty.

2026.09.17 21:04:43

Renowned crypto analyst PlanB released a chart comparing Bitcoin’s network mining difficulty and price, noting that investors should wait for Bitcoin’s mining difficulty to rebound. The chart shows that as of September 16, the network’s total mining difficulty stood at around 127T, with Bitcoin’s price clearly trading below its production cost band. Between 2024 and 2025, the two metrics rose largely in tandem; in 2026, mining difficulty shifted to sideways movement and even dipped briefly, while Bitcoin’s price led the decline. PlanB argues that mining difficulty is a more accurate reflection of Bitcoin’s market price at this stage than models like S2F (Stock-to-Flow) and the power law, as it closely correlates with miners’ computing power and BTC production costs. He also emphasized that this is not an immediate buy signal, but rather a key metric to monitor miners’ production cycles: if mining difficulty rises again, it may signal miners ramping up operations, further confirming a market bottom; if difficulty continues to decline, the market remains in a deleveraging phase.

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