Analysis: Why Bitcoin Can’t Break Through $82,000? Concentrated Gameplay Between Long-Term Holders, Short-Term Holders and Whale Groups

Analyst Murphy published a report explaining why Bitcoin is struggling to break through the $82,000 threshold, noting clues can be found in its coin holder distribution structure. First, Short-Term Holder (STH) coins are concentrated between $59,000 and $81,000 (marked red in Figure 1). A break above $82,000 would put all STHs in profit, prompting some short-term speculative funds to take profits, creating the first layer of selling pressure. Second, Long-Term Holder (LTH) coins are distributed across the entire price range, but their most concentrated price peak lies exactly between $81,000 and $82,000 (marked blue in Figure 1). Not all these LTHs are true "HODLers"—some are investors who got stuck in positions and became long-term holders passively, and may exit when prices approach their break-even points, forming the second layer of selling pressure. Additionally, this price level is also a hub for super whales: the group of whales holding over 100,000 BTC has two clusters near $40,000, with the rest concentrated between $78,000 and $82,000. The analyst believes there is indeed short-term resistance to breaking $82,000, as the market needs time to resolve divergences and absorb supply. Once the market regains momentum to break through, the path ahead will be clear.