Viewpoint: Bitcoin has not hit a new high in nearly a year, and the historical pattern of quickly rallying to new highs after halving is now failing.
2026.09.13 22:41:44
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin has not hit a new all-time high in nearly a year. As of now, it has been roughly 342 days since the last all-time high, approaching a full year. In previous cycles, Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high shortly after a halving, but this cycle’s pace has slowed. The next halving is expected around April 2028. Additionally, the interval between the previous cycle’s peak and the next all-time high has been shrinking: 1,180 days between 2014–2017, 1,094 days between 2017–2020, and 849 days between 2021–2024. Based on this trend, Darkfost inferred that if the shortening trend continues, even though Bitcoin has taken a year to break its prior all-time high this cycle, the new high may arrive faster than in previous cycles—there is no need to wait until 2028 under the old template of hitting a new high immediately after a halving. The cycle template is becoming less relevant, but the interval between new highs is shrinking and a new high is inevitable.
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