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Glassnode Warns: Bitcoin Faces 'Absence of Buyers', May Drop to $52,800 if It Falls Below $58,500

2026.08.18 20:19:57

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode says the Bitcoin market is in a "highly contracted" state, with selling pressure from sellers easing but buyers yet to enter noticeably. BTC is currently fluctuating mainly between $63,000 and $68,700, with market trading activity dropping to its lowest level since 2019. Glassnode data shows the 30-day Seller Exhaustion Constant has fallen to its lowest level since 2013, though a historic market bottom signal has not yet been confirmed. If BTC breaks below $58,500, the next support level could drop to $52,800. Crypto analyst CryptoBusy notes that the current degree of seller exhaustion is approaching levels seen in previous bear market bottoms, though deeper sell-offs have occurred in historical cycles, meaning Bitcoin may still need to release more selling pressure to complete market clearing. Michael Terpin, founder of Transform Group, predicts Bitcoin could bottom around $57,000 in October, and views complete seller exhaustion as a key signal for the end of the bear market. However, there is no consensus on market bottoming among analysts. Some analysts point out that only 2 of Glassnode’s 10 capitulation indicators have been triggered so far, putting BTC’s potential bottom at between $49,000 and $53,000. Analysts also add that before ETF inflows and spot trading volumes show a clear recovery, it is not enough to confirm the market has entered a sustained accumulation phase. Glassnode further warns that leveraged traders have already bet on a market recovery, but current on-chain and market data have not sufficiently supported this expectation.

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