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Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time Bitcoin whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 8425 updates and counting.

2026.08.20 18:39

Short-term Bitcoin holders transferred 44,300 BTC to centralized exchanges (CEXs) yesterday, marking the largest profit-taking activity recorded so far this year.

Crypto analyst Darkfost wrote that Bitcoin notched its largest single-day gain since February 2026 yesterday, surging 7.1% in 24 hours. The rally pushed Bitcoin’s price above the cost basis of short-term holders (STHs), triggering massive profit-taking among STHs. Data shows short-term holders transferred over 44,300 BTC to trading platforms yesterday, marking the largest profit-taking volume since 2026. Currently, the STH cost basis stands at roughly $67,100. After Bitcoin broke above this level, some previously profitable holders began moving their assets. Darkfost attributed the rally to multiple factors. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant previously announced the U.S. would expand its long-term Treasury repurchase operations by double, driving a sharp decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Later, Trump spoke at a dedicated crypto industry meeting at the White House, stating the U.S. is considering purchasing large amounts of BTC, urging Congress to pass the Clarity Act, and expressing his wish to facilitate Hyperliquid’s entry into the U.S. market. The market remains divided on whether these policy statements are mere discussions or the U.S. government’s genuine intent to become a global crypto hub. Currently, as Bitcoin attempts to break through key resistance levels—including the STH cost basis—the on-chain behavior of short-term holders continues to warrant close monitoring.

2026.08.20 12:27

CZ: Bitcoin Still Follows Its Four-Year Cycle, Crypto Sector Enjoys Most Policy-Friendly Period Yet

At the SALT conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, CZ commented on the Bitcoin "super cycle" thesis he previously proposed at the World Economic Forum in Davos, noting the claim has not yet materialized. According to data, the market still follows a relatively strict four-year cycle and is currently in its bear market phase. However, as total market capitalization expands, price volatility will narrow, similar to the fluctuation patterns of large companies like Amazon and Facebook. When discussing the U.S. regulatory environment, CZ said this is the most industry-friendly period in his 12-year career, adding that the U.S. regulatory framework sets a global example, with many countries’ securities laws and exchange regulatory structures referencing the U.S. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is accelerating alignment with U.S. regulatory approaches to advance relevant legislation. Additionally, CZ touched on the portfolio of his investment firm YZi Labs, stating that roughly 70% of its capital is allocated to core crypto and blockchain sectors, about 20% to AI, and the rest to fields like biotechnology. YZi Labs uses its own capital, free from external limited partner (LP) return cycle constraints, and prioritizes projects’ positive impact and founding teams’ execution ability over purely financial return models. Regarding Hyperliquid, CZ noted a common industry misconception that as a Binance shareholder, it would only uphold CEX stances, but he entered the industry because he believes in decentralization. If KYC-free platforms like Hyperliquid can enter the U.S. market in a compliant manner, it will open doors for the entire sector, enabling more Perp DEXs and decentralized services to reach U.S. and global users, while U.S. consumers will gain better liquidity and pricing. This will not only benefit Hyperliquid itself but also international centralized exchanges including Binance.

2026.08.20 11:34

Glassnode: Bitcoin remains in the "capitulation phase", and the current rally should be viewed as a partial rebound during the bottoming process.

Glassnode released a report at 12:00 AM this morning, noting that Bitcoin’s on-chain structure remains in the "capitulation phase". The cost base of short-term holders has dropped to around $68,500, lower than the real market average of approximately $75,800. Meanwhile, the relative unrealized loss in this cycle peaks at roughly 25%, significantly lower than the over 60% level seen during capitulation phases in previous cycles. This indicates that the current market loss is relatively mild but more dispersed, potentially requiring a longer period to complete the clearing process. Glassnode also stated that the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio currently stands at 0.75, while historically this metric typically falls below 0.5 before seller exhaustion occurs, meaning genuine seller exhaustion has not yet emerged. The firm further emphasized that until this metric breaks back above 2, any price rally should be viewed as a local rebound rather than a fundamental shift in market trend. Additionally, the 30-day directional premium in the perpetual contract market turned sharply negative during the recent sell-off, but has since rebounded significantly and returned to positive territory. This signals that leveraged traders are once again willing to pay a premium for long exposure, and speculative risk appetite has improved somewhat. However, in contrast to the improvement in the perpetual contract market, the Coinbase Premium Index remains consistently negative, indicating that meaningful demand has not yet returned to the U.S. spot market.

2026.08.20 07:46

Key takeaways from Trump’s crypto-friendly remarks: He disclosed that the U.S. government has discussed accumulating a "significant amount" of Bitcoin, vowed to end the "war on crypto" entirely, and urged the prompt passage of the Genius Act.

U.S. President Donald Trump met with executives from crypto and fintech firms including Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, Gemini, and Chainlink at the White House’s Roosevelt Room on Wednesday local time, delivering a speech in support of cryptocurrencies. Trump said his administration has “completely ended the war on cryptocurrencies,” noting the industry is thriving, and the U.S. must retain its “undisputed leadership” in areas such as Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, prediction markets, and artificial intelligence, while committing to becoming the “world’s crypto capital.” He added that the U.S. government has discussed accumulating “significant quantities” of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, claiming crypto assets “have greatly eased pressure on the U.S. dollar.” Meanwhile, he urged Congress to pass a “fair version” of the Clarity Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) promptly, arguing this would keep the U.S. ahead of China and other countries. Trump also noted that the SEC Chair is working to bring Hyperliquid to the U.S. market in a compliant manner, and highlighted policy achievements including the signed Genius Act (stablecoin legislation), strategic Bitcoin reserves, and the ban on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

2026.08.20 05:43

Bitcoin tops $69,000 for the first time in two months, lifted by U.S. SEC crypto rule proposals and expanded U.S. Treasury repo operations.

The crypto market has rallied, with Bitcoin briefly topping $69,000 for the first time in two months, while Ethereum rose roughly 19% to reclaim the $2,200 mark. The rally was driven primarily by two policy announcements. The U.S. Treasury Department said it will at least double the size of its long-term Treasury repurchase operations, raising the single-auction cap for 10–20 year and 20–30 year Treasuries from $2 billion to $4 billion. The measure takes effect September 9 and will run through the end of the current refinancing quarter. The Treasury stated the move is intended to provide additional liquidity support to the long-term Treasury market. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a new regulatory framework for crypto asset issuances, aiming to create an exemption pathway for certain crypto offerings tied to investment contracts. Under the proposal, eligible issuers can raise up to $5 million over four years, or up to $75 million annually, if they meet disclosure requirements. Fueled by these positive policy developments, the broader crypto market saw broad-based gains, with major assets including Solana and XRP surging over 5% in the past 24 hours. Market analysts noted that while the Treasury’s expanded repo operations differ from traditional quantitative easing, they could still improve liquidity in the long-term bond market, fostering a more favorable environment for risk assets. Additionally, VanEck has previously stated that Bitcoin’s correction phase may be nearing its end, with historical cycle data suggesting the cryptocurrency could be entering a potential accumulation phase. Crypto-related stocks also rose in tandem: Fold Holdings jumped nearly 20%, BitGo and American Bitcoin gained around 15%, and Bitcoin asset reserve firm Strategy and Ethereum asset reserve firm Bitmine rose roughly 10%.

2026.08.20 01:40

Analysis: This round of Bitcoin rally is driven by factors including rising optimism over crypto regulation and the expansion of US Treasury repo operations.

According to Bloomberg, as industry executives gather at the White House and market regulatory optimism builds, Bitcoin broke through a months-long trading range on Wednesday, surging as much as 8% to around $69,500—its largest gain since March and the highest level since early June. Trump is expected to hold meetings with executives from firms including Coinbase, Payward, and Blockchain.com. Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at IG, said the rally toward $70,000 was triggered by short covering, signaling a recovery in buyer confidence, though whether the momentum can hold and push to challenge the $75,000 level remains a key test. Bitcoin also reclaimed its 100-day and 200-day moving averages on Wednesday. Data from Coinglass showed the sharp rise triggered over $1 billion in liquidations within an hour, with total liquidations reaching roughly $1.5 billion over the past 24 hours. On the regulatory front, the U.S. SEC this week proposed exempting certain digital asset issuers from securities registration requirements to support early-stage and fundraising-stage companies. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would at least double the size of its liquidity-supporting repo operations for 10- to 30-year Treasuries, pushing U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar lower. Joshua Lim, co-head of markets at FalconX, noted that the market has been flooded with sell orders over the past weeks, but Bitcoin held firm in the $60,000 range, which subsequently shifted market sentiment and narratives. Data from Deribit showed Bitcoin options positions are concentrated near $60,000 put options and $70,000 call options.

2026.08.19 23:03

Strive CEO: Bitcoin could see its strongest macro tailwind in history over the next 5 to 7 years, as a weakening U.S. dollar will significantly benefit Bitcoin.

Strive CEO Matt Cole stated in a recent post that he has believed for over a decade the US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a structural downtrend, and may now be approaching a larger-scale decline phase. If this outlook holds, the macro environment for Bitcoin over the next 5 to 7 years could be more favorable than any period in its history. Cole noted that over the past roughly 45 years, the DXY has generally formed lower highs and lower lows, while the continuous expansion of US federal debt and fiscal deficits, plus rising risks for long-term US Treasuries, also fundamentally support this view. He pointed out that policymakers will ultimately face a trade-off between higher real interest rates, tighter financial conditions, and lower real interest rates, maintaining liquidity, and a certain degree of currency depreciation. Cole added that Bitcoin’s previous major rallies all coincided with sharp US dollar weakness, including in 2017 when DXY fell from around 103 to 88, 2020 to 2021 when it dropped from ~103 to 89, and 2025 when it retreated from ~108. His baseline assessment is that the US dollar may enter a new multi-year decline over the next 3 to 7 years, with DXY even potentially testing its 2008 low of around 70. Cole also mentioned that the US Treasury Department announced today it will at least double the size of its liquidity support repurchase operations for 10-year to 30-year US Treasuries. He argued that if the dollar ultimately sees a genuine long-term structural breakdown, Bitcoin’s macro tailwinds over the next 5 to 7 years could be significantly stronger than any period in its history.

2026.08.19 01:14

Bitcoin’s volatility falls to a cycle low, as traders shift to AI stocks and prediction markets.

Bitcoin’s recent volatility has dropped to multi-year lows, with its 30-day realized volatility standing at around 42%, compared to the S&P 500’s roughly 18% — marking the narrowest gap in volatility between the two assets on record. The market is stuck in a stalemate between buyers and sellers: sell-offs by corporates and mining firms cap upside gains, while deleveraging and ongoing accumulation by long-term holders limit downside declines. As Bitcoin’s volatility eases, some short-term traders have shifted their risk appetite to assets like AI stocks, tokenized equities, stock perpetuals, and prediction markets. A NYDIG study notes that short-term traders tend to chase volatility, narrative momentum, and upside potential, with “traders targeting 5x or 10x returns” now having options including Bitcoin, Nvidia, gold, stock perpetuals, 0DTE options, and sports event contracts. Data shows that monthly trading volume of traditional asset perpetuals on crypto platforms has surged more than fivefold from $52 billion in January to $268 billion in June. Meanwhile, South Korean retail traders have clearly shifted from cryptocurrencies to AI-related stocks, with trading volumes on major South Korean crypto exchanges falling by up to around 80% year-over-year. CoinDesk points out that the Bitcoin market is currently more like in a “dormant” state, with falling trading participation, shrinking market depth, and regulatory uncertainty combining to suppress volatility. If U.S. crypto regulation makes substantial progress, the macro environment shifts, or a new market narrative emerges, the current low-volatility regime could be broken, and thinner liquidity may further amplify price swings.

2026.08.18 22:58

Bitcoin mining companies are accelerating their shift toward AI, with AI/HPC contract mining firms commanding significantly higher valuations than pure-play mining companies.

As Bitcoin prices fall and mining yields remain under pressure, Bitcoin mining firms that have pivoted to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (AI/HPC) are securing higher valuations and more stable revenue outlooks. Over the past year, shares of TerraWulf (WULF), IREN, and Cipher Digital (CIFR) have all more than doubled, while MARA Holdings (MARA), which pivoted to AI later, saw its stock drop around 40% over the same period. Bitcoin’s mining hash price has now fallen from roughly $63 per PH/s in July last year to about $31.8, prompting an increasing number of mining firms to shut down equipment. The Bitcoin network’s hashrate has also declined from 1.14 ZH/s to approximately 900 EH/s, a drop of around 21%. Data from CoinShares shows that as of the first quarter of 2026, the average enterprise value multiple for mining firms with AI/HPC contracts stood at roughly 12.3x, while pure Bitcoin mining firms had a multiple of just 5.9x. Over the same period, the total value of AI/HPC contracts signed across the industry has reached about $70 billion. Recently, mining firms’ AI transitions have accelerated further. Last week, Riot Platforms signed a 20-year lease agreement with Anthropic, valued at around $9.1 billion. The market believes that the truly scarce assets of mining firms are not Bitcoin itself, but low-cost power, data center infrastructure, and large-scale computing operation capabilities—resources that can be repurposed for high-growth computing businesses like AI. However, pure Bitcoin mining still has room for recovery. CoinShares estimates that if Bitcoin prices return to their all-time high of roughly $126,000 hit last October, the hash price could rebound to around $59 per PH/s, and mining firms’ profitability is expected to improve significantly.

2026.08.18 21:55

Analysis: $1.8 Trillion 'Panic' Could Trigger 30% Volatility in Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been trading sideways recently, with markets closely monitoring surging global bond yields. Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, noted that Bitcoin’s recent volatility is at an all-time low, suggesting extreme price swings could emerge in the coming months. Historical data shows that in similar scenarios, Bitcoin’s median absolute price swing over the subsequent 60 days is around 30%. Global bond yields have surged sharply this week: the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002, the 20-year yield notched a new high since 2006, and the 10-year yield reached its highest since 2007. Markets attribute the rise in long-term yields to factors including widening U.S. fiscal deficits, rising costs for AI infrastructure, high oil prices, and monetary policy uncertainty. Yardeni Research stated that while the market is not yet in a "panic" state, it is closely monitoring whether so-called "bond vigilantes" will reassert control over the market. Bitunix analysts pointed out that market focus has shifted from whether the Federal Reserve will raise or cut interest rates to long-term U.S. Treasury yields, energy prices, inflation risks, and global risk premiums. Additionally, Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, said it is not ruled out that Bitcoin could experience another sharp drop in the coming months, even falling to the mid-$50,000 range. If historical patterns hold, the market may need to go through a final "panic-driven liquidation" to confirm the real bottom of this cycle.

2026.08.18 21:44

Citigroup plans to launch Bitcoin custody services within the year, enabling institutional clients to hold the cryptocurrency alongside their traditional assets.

Citigroup plans to launch Bitcoin custody services later this year, enabling institutional clients to hold BTC alongside traditional assets such as stocks and bonds via its newly unveiled Custody+ platform. The exact launch date remains unannounced. The bank stated that Custody+ is designed to boost the efficiency of services including custody, settlement, foreign exchange, and cash management, with initial support for Bitcoin. Citigroup’s custody business currently spans over 100 markets, with a proprietary custody network in 62 of those regions. Once BTC custody is rolled out, institutional clients will no longer need separate independent crypto custody providers, as they can manage both traditional assets and Bitcoin uniformly through Citigroup. The firm added that its new system has already achieved real-time processing for more than 80% of relevant custody events, cutting processing time by up to 92%, with 96% of such events completed within two hours. As the U.S. regulatory landscape improves, large financial institutions are accelerating their entry into the crypto asset custody sector. The Bank of New York Mellon launched crypto asset custody services for some U.S. clients in 2022, while firms including Fidelity Digital Assets and Coinbase have also deployed institutional-grade digital asset custody offerings.

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