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Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time Bitcoin whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 8425 updates and counting.

2026.08.23 14:24

Bitfinex: Bitcoin's current rally is primarily driven by spot demand and short covering, with profit-taking emerging as the biggest risk.

Bitcoin has recently rallied to a multi-month high, with Bitfinex analysts noting the current upswing is driven primarily by spot buying and short covering rather than new leveraged funds, giving it longer staying power than a typical short squeeze. As all investors who bought bitcoin over the past five months are currently in unrealized profit, the key risk to the current rally comes from profit-taking flows into trading platforms. Bitfinex identifies the U.S. Treasury’s August 19 announcement to expand its long-term bond repurchase program as a major catalyst for the recent price action. The early stage of this rally was indeed fueled by short liquidations. On the same day, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $297.6 million in inflows. However, subsequent price gains were driven mainly by spot buying. Looking at positioning, while bitcoin prices rose 10% to 11%, open interest (OI) increased by only around 4%, indicating spot demand and short covering are the primary drivers, with leveraged funds playing a limited role. Bitfinex points out that the $68,000–$69,000 range is a key current support level, near the average cost basis of bitcoin buyers over the past five months. Holding above this level will keep those investors in profit, reducing selling pressure from previously trapped positions during rebounds. On the funding front, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day inflow of $606.29 million on August 20, the largest daily inflow since May 1, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for roughly 82% of that total. Bitfinex says if this inflow persists for a week, it will further strengthen the market’s demand structure. However, Bitfinex warns that the biggest current risk is a surge in profit-taking bitcoin flowing into trading platforms, which could trigger the largest sell-off since 2026. Analysts add that if real yields rise back to levels that previously pressured bitcoin below $65,000, macro factors could quickly impact the market.

2026.08.22 16:07

US Treasury repurchase operations unexpectedly pushed Bitcoin’s price up 25%, triggering $4 billion in short-position liquidations.

After the U.S. Treasury expanded its long-term U.S. Treasury bond repurchase operations, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from a 19-year high of 5.34% to around 5.19%, while Bitcoin rose roughly 25% in several days, briefly topping $79,000. Around $4 billion in cryptocurrency short positions were liquidated during this period, further amplifying the rally. The U.S. Treasury had earlier announced it would raise the size of its longest-dated Treasury repurchase operations from $2 billion per operation to $4 billion. Analysts noted that this operation is not equivalent to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE); its main function is to improve the liquidity of older bonds and optimize the debt structure, but the market views it as a policy support signal for long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Analysts believe the key driver of Bitcoin’s recent rally is not the repurchase operation itself, but the market’s prior over-concentration of short positions. As long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, short sellers were forced to cover their positions, triggering a powerful short squeeze. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of around $650 million this week, and Trump once again urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, further boosting market risk appetite. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, said the key now is whether Bitcoin can hold its 200-day moving average around $69,000 and turn it from resistance into support. Market participants also warned that if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield re-breaks above 4.7% and the 30-year yield approaches 5.3%, Bitcoin’s current breakout could face renewed tests. Bitcoin has now broken above its 200-day moving average and continues to rise; the next phase of the market will focus on whether it can sustain its rally in a high-yield environment.

2026.08.22 09:02

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates recommends allocating to Bitcoin and gold to hedge risks, warning that a U.S. debt crisis is approaching.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said that as U.S. debt pressures continue to rise, investors should reduce bond allocations and hedge risks with non-government-issued assets like gold and Bitcoin. Dalio recently noted that portfolios can allocate around 10%-15% to gold and hold "a portion" of Bitcoin to mitigate debt crisis risks and boost long-term returns. He believes that as the global debt cycle enters a critical phase, non-sovereign currency assets like Bitcoin may benefit. Dalio pointed out that the U.S. government is projected to collect about $5.5 trillion in revenue this year, with $7.5 trillion in spending, leaving a fiscal gap of roughly $2 trillion. Meanwhile, U.S. interest payments are expected to nearly hit $1 trillion, and about $10 trillion in debt faces refinancing pressure. He warned that if fiscal policies are not adjusted, a U.S. debt crisis could emerge "in roughly the next three years (plus or minus two years)." As debt servicing pressures mount, the government may be forced to accept higher interest rates or rely on central bank balance sheet expansion to buy debt, which would erode currency values and drive up inflation. Recently, U.S. long-term Treasury yields have risen to multi-year highs, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of the long-term U.S. Treasury buyback program, but markets view this measure as only providing short-term support, not solving structural fiscal issues. Driven by a weaker dollar, improved liquidity expectations, and safe-haven demand, Bitcoin recently broke through $77,000, posting one of its strongest weekly gains since 2023. Dalio stated: "Non-government-issued monetary assets, such as gold and Bitcoin, are expected to perform well." These remarks have further strengthened market attention on Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, with investors viewing it as a key asset to hedge against currency devaluation and long-term fiscal risks.

2026.08.21 19:56

Crypto whale sets 10 major targets: Bitcoin won’t rise continuously, with a medium-term target of $100,000 by March next year.

Whale "Set 10 Big Goals First" posted on X that he has reopened short positions at $76,000, noting the logic is straightforward: "When I opened long positions around $63,000, my stage target was originally $74,000. I still maintain the bull market has returned, and this judgment hasn’t changed. However, I’ve always believed this cycle should be a volatile upward trend, and so far, I haven’t seen enough signals from macro and market structure to support such a trajectory." He has now reduced the vast majority of his short positions. "This isn’t because I’ve changed my judgment, but to control risks. If prices continue to rally sharply here, $82,000 and even $84,000 are possible, so there’s no need to bet my entire position on my judgment being 100% correct. If the daily close is firmly above $80,500, I will admit this trade is wrong, close all positions, and step back for a while. If prices fail to hold here and turn weak again, I will consider adding back the short positions I reduced." The whale reaffirmed his mid-to-long-term outlook on BTC: "I remain bullish on BTC in the medium and long term, but being bullish long-term doesn’t conflict with short-term bearish trades. This short position is a bet on a pullback during the uptrend, not a return to the bear market. If I’m wrong, I will admit the mistake above $80,500. I still believe BTC will hit $100,000 by March next year."

2026.08.21 11:27

Analyst: Bitcoin’s current rally is fueled by a short squeeze, with future market performance still requiring real demand to underpin.

Bitcoin surges past $75,000, hitting a three-month high. The rally was primarily driven by the U.S. Treasury’s announcement to expand the scale of its long-term U.S. Treasury bond liquidity support repurchase operations. The Treasury had earlier stated it would at least double the size of these operations for long-term nominal coupon securities with maturities of 10 to 30 years. Additional factors boosting market sentiment include the SEC’s latest crypto regulatory proposal and a White House meeting between Trump and crypto industry executives. The sharp rally has triggered massive short liquidations. Data from Coinglass shows that Bitcoin’s rise on Wednesday led to over $2.75 billion in BTC short positions being liquidated. In the past 24 hours, an additional $783.2 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated, of which $747.7 million were short positions. However, analyst Shawn Young believes the current rally may be overinterpreted by the market. He noted that the crypto market is “assigning far more significance to the U.S. Treasury’s intervention measures than their actual impact,” adding that bond market changes are forcing shorts to cover quickly rather than improving Bitcoin’s macro fundamentals. U.S. Treasuries are still competing with Bitcoin for marginal capital, and the current rise is largely driven by the market’s previously overcrowded short positions. He called Bitcoin’s break above $70,000 “premature.” Zeus Research analyst Dominick John said short liquidations could still push prices higher in the short term, but as forced buying fades, future moves will need to be supported by real spot demand, liquidity conditions, and macro fundamentals. He added that the key for the market’s next phase is whether new capital can enter, turning this short squeeze into a sustained uptrend. Additionally, smooth passage of the Clarity Act in September could serve as an important catalyst for further crypto market growth.

2026.08.21 10:23

Bitcoin rose 16.66% in two days, its market cap rebounded to $1.5 trillion, and the broader cryptocurrency market continues to recover.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has surged sharply for two consecutive days, with a cumulative gain of 16.66%, bringing its market capitalization back to $1.5 trillion. The broader cryptocurrency market has rebounded. Following a flurry of positive remarks on the crypto sector from US President Trump this Wednesday, the first meeting of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee was held this Thursday, with numerous crypto giants and executives in attendance, whose remarks further boosted the market. Meanwhile, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that even if the US Congress fails to pass the Crypto Market Structure Act (the Clarity Act), the crypto industry will still obtain market structure regulatory rules. Selig noted that the CFTC can establish a market regulatory framework either by formulating rules or promoting legislation. He added that the CFTC is currently evaluating multiple crypto regulatory proposals, but will continue to monitor the progress of the Clarity Act. The bill is currently stalled in the US Senate, with a procedural vote expected in mid-September, though it remains uncertain whether it can secure enough votes ahead of the US midterm elections. Selig said legislation is "the most reliable approach," but the CFTC already holds substantial regulatory authority under existing laws. If Congress ultimately fails to pass the relevant bill, the CFTC will leverage its existing authority to enact regulatory rules.

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