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Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time Bitcoin whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 8425 updates and counting.

2026.08.25 23:40

Bitcoin surges to a peak then drops below $80,000, with gold also retreating in tandem as market attention turns to PCE data and NVIDIA’s earnings report.

Bitcoin surged to $81,265 on Tuesday before pulling back, dropping as low as $78,111 and falling back below the $80,000 threshold. Gold weakened in tandem: spot gold fell nearly 2% to $4,605 per ounce, after hitting $4,697, its highest level since mid-May. Market trends show that the decline in U.S. Treasury yields no longer continued to drive gains for Bitcoin and gold, instead leading to a divergent pattern: U.S. stocks rose, while cryptocurrencies and gold weakened. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.5%; meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond fell below 5.2%, approaching its lowest level since August 7. Analysts note that recent moves in U.S. Treasury yields remain a key driver of the crypto market. The U.S. Treasury Department earlier expanded its long-term Treasury repurchase program to ease upward pressure on long-dated yields, but amid the current inflation environment, the Federal Reserve’s room for interest rate cuts remains limited. Markets currently price in a roughly 61.9% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in September. In the short term, market focus is shifting from Treasuries to the U.S. July PCE inflation data and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Nvidia’s post-market earnings report on Wednesday could also act as a new catalyst for volatility in risk assets.

2026.08.25 19:20

Bitcoin’s weekly RSI shows bullish divergence, market analysts reassess whether the bear market trend is over.

After Bitcoin rallied sharply by around 25% last week and briefly broke above $80,000, the market remains divided on the direction of its current trend. Technical indicators show Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 58.3, its highest level since the all-time high of $126,200 hit in October 2025, and it has formed a bullish divergence similar to that seen during the 2022 bear market bottom: prices had been making lower lows, while the weekly RSI formed higher lows. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, notes that weekly-level bullish divergences are highly valuable for judging long-term trends and cycle inflection points, with similar signals in the past often followed by further price gains. However, short-term indicators show signs of overheating: Bitcoin’s daily RSI has climbed to 82.93, its highest level since November 2024. Some traders are cautious about short-term pullback risks, but some analysts argue that it is not uncommon for RSI to stay above the overbought threshold of 70 for extended periods during historical bull markets. Additionally, Bitcoin’s two-month Stochastic RSI recently formed the expected golden cross, a potential bullish signal for a trend shift. However, this indicator only hit a low of 4.81 this time, failing to drop to near-zero levels as seen in signals before historical bear market bottoms, so the market still needs further observation to confirm whether this rally marks the official end of the macro bear market.

2026.08.25 19:09

Bitcoin short squeeze reappears: Futures open interest falls to a five-month low, and the market’s leverage structure has become healthier.

Bitcoin has surged rapidly from around $62,000 to near $80,000 recently, marking its second-largest weekly gain in nearly five years. However, unlike previous rallies that came with massive leveraged capital inflows, open interest (OI) in Bitcoin-denominated futures has instead continued to decline in this cycle. Data from Glassnode shows that as of now, BTC-denominated futures OI stands at approximately 587,600 BTC, down from 645,800 BTC on August 14 and hitting a near-five-month low. Analysts believe this rally is driven more by short covering and short liquidations rather than a concentrated influx of new leveraged long positions. During this period, billions of dollars in short positions were liquidated, triggering a notable short squeeze that further pushed Bitcoin above $80,000. Meanwhile, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts remains below 10%, indicating that overall bullish leverage in the market is not overly crowded. Additionally, open interest in crypto margin futures has dropped to a historic low of around 52,000 BTC, accounting for just 11% of total market activity. The rising share of cash margin helps mitigate the cascading risk of "collateral shrinkage—forced liquidations—further price declines" during market downturns. Overall, current low participation in the derivatives market and a healthier leverage structure suggest this Bitcoin rally has stronger sustainability.

2026.08.25 17:14

Analysis: Bitcoin’s moving average alignment remains bearish, with a key resistance level of $83,200 (the 365-day Simple Moving Average, SMA365)

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that after a pullback, Bitcoin has reclaimed its short-term holder cost base of roughly $68,200. Meanwhile, with rising trading volume, the price has broken through the SMA200 (200-day simple moving average) level of around $69,000 and SMA111 of approximately $67,500. A large number of holders who bought recently are back in profit, easing the selling pressure from short-term holders who were in the red. However, Bitcoin’s moving average alignment still maintains a bearish structure: SMA111 sits below SMA200, and both are lower than SMA365’s roughly $83,200. This indicates the current move is merely a strong short-cycle recovery, not a confirmed reversal of the broader trend. The most critical upside resistance is the SMA365 level at $83,200. If the price stalls and pulls back at this level, the existing bearish structure will hold; if it can effectively reclaim it, this could mark the first serious evidence of a trend reversal. Key downside support lies in the $67,000 to $69,000 range, which encompasses both the short-term holder cost base and the dense zone of SMA111 and SMA200. As long as the pullback holds this range, short-term holders remain profitable, and the price stays above the moving averages, the market structure still holds upside potential; a break below would resume downside risks. The current market is leaning positive but has not yet fully entered a high risk appetite mode.

2026.08.25 15:27

Analysis: Bitcoin's 'new whale' cohort has taken profits exceeding $1.2 billion over the past three days, as markets await a balance in selling pressure.

CryptoQuant analyst Moreno noted that Bitcoin’s "new whale" group has realized over $1.2 billion in profits over the past three days, marking the largest profit-taking event in the group’s history. Of this total, roughly $614 million was earned on August 20 alone, the highest single-day profit on record. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has rebounded above the short-term whale realization price of around $68,900. On August 23, BTC traded near $77,700, approximately 12.8% higher than the total cost basis of these "new whales". In prior months, some large whales that recently accumulated Bitcoin were sitting on long-term unrealized losses. This rally has completely reshaped their position structure, giving previously trapped capital a sudden opportunity to exit at break-even and lock in substantial profits. The current trend thus constitutes an important demand test. If BTC can hold steadily above the whale cost basis of around $70,000, while profit-taking gradually returns to normal levels, it signals that new demand is effectively absorbing distribution pressure, laying a foundation for the rally to continue. Conversely, if profit-taking remains elevated and the price falls back below this cost basis, the rally may be closer to a "break-even exit rally", with previously trapped holders turning into fresh selling pressure above. The market has now regained profitability; what remains to be proven is whether it can absorb the pressure unleashed by this profit release.

2026.08.25 15:06

Strive CEO reiterates that the Bitcoin bull market has only just begun, and his long-term belief has never wavered.

US bitcoin treasury firm Strive (ticker: ASST) CEO Matt Cole has once again reaffirmed that the bull market has only just begun. He stated that while ASST’s stock hit a bear market low in February 2026 and external sentiment was extremely pessimistic, Strive’s team’s long-term conviction never wavered. “We clearly recognize the value of our bitcoin holdings,” Cole said. Executives and directors have been buying additional stock with their own capital, and some directors have joined the company full-time. This highly aligned internal conviction and execution capability laid the foundation for the performance delivered in the subsequent six months. Strive will not forget the steadfast shareholders who supported the company during its toughest times. Now, with the stock surging and market sentiment running high, the team’s core focus remains unchanged: the bitcoin bull market has only just begun, and we will continue to go all-in. Yesterday, Cole published a lengthy bullish article on bitcoin, citing the bitcoin/gold ratio chart. He pointed out that bitcoin has broken through against both the U.S. dollar and gold, signaling the end of the bear market and reinforcing that the next cycle will be the strongest in history. Cole believes three converging forces are creating an unprecedented favorable market environment for bitcoin: the long-term weakening of the U.S. dollar, rising demand for scarce assets in the AI era, and the re-strengthening of the BTC/gold ratio. According to market data from BIT (bit.com), Strive’s U.S. stock price nearly doubled in the past week, breaking above $20. Strive announced yesterday that it purchased 1,110 bitcoin last week at an average price of approximately $73,409, a significant increase from its prior weekly purchase volume. As of August 21, Strive holds a total of 21,356 bitcoin, plus 505,000 preferred shares of Strategy STRC (with a fair value of about $48.57 million) and roughly $171.9 million in cash.

2026.08.24 20:13

Strategy announces the launch of the 'USD Cash' flexible liquidity tool, bringing its U.S. dollar reserves to $5.1 billion, while its Bitcoin holdings remained unchanged last week.

Strategy today announced the establishment of a dedicated U.S. dollar liquidity pool named "USD Cash" under its Digital Credit Capital framework. The pool will be used for general Bitcoin financial company purposes, including purchasing Bitcoin, paying preferred stock dividends and debt interest, repurchasing common or preferred stock, repaying convertible bonds, and increasing U.S. dollar reserves. The company emphasized that its existing USD Reserve policy remains unchanged, continuing to be exclusively used for supporting preferred stock dividends and outstanding debt interest payments. USD Cash, as a complementary tool, grants management more flexible capital deployment capabilities to respond faster to market changes and price dislocations in Bitcoin or the company’s securities. As of August 23, the USD Reserve balance stood at $5.1 billion, while USD Cash’s balance was $1.59 billion. Both figures include expected cash proceeds from sold but unsettled at-the-money (ATM) shares. During the week of August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18,261,118 common shares of MSTR solely via at-the-market follow-on offerings, generating net proceeds of $2.0065 billion. Of this amount, $136.4 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred stock, $300 million was added to the USD Reserve, and the remainder was allocated to USD Cash. As of August 23, the company’s Bitcoin holdings totaled 840,447 coins, with a total purchase cost of $63.36 billion and an average purchase price of $75,385. No Bitcoin transactions were executed during the week.

2026.08.24 16:34

Viewpoint: Bitcoin short-term holders return to the profit zone, with potential selling pressure on the rise.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a post that as Bitcoin’s price rebounds sharply, the proportion of short-term holder (STH) supply in profit has surged from 26.1% on August 17 to 74.9%, meaning nearly three-quarters of short-term holders who were previously in the red have returned to profitability. Meanwhile, the net trading platform flow of short-term holders turned positive from negative, rising to 28,600 BTC on August 24 and breaking through the key level of 25,000 BTC. Data shows that as the average realized profit of short-term holders turns positive, the amount of BTC they transfer to trading platforms has increased significantly, indicating rising potential selling pressure. If this indicator remains above 25,000 BTC while Bitcoin’s upward momentum slows, the risk of short-term profit-taking and distribution pressure in the market will further increase. The analysis points out that the rapid rebound in the profit proportion of short-term holders, paired with the simultaneous rise in inflows to trading platforms, reflects a coexistence of market recovery and potential selling pressure. If the profit supply proportion rises further above 90% while price momentum weakens, the risk of local overheating in the market will rise; conversely, if trading platform flow falls back to near zero and the profit supply remains above 50%, it is more likely that the market will enter a relatively healthy consolidation phase.

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