Viewpoint: Bitcoin short-term holders return to the profit zone, with potential selling pressure on the rise.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a post that as Bitcoin’s price rebounds sharply, the proportion of short-term holder (STH) supply in profit has surged from 26.1% on August 17 to 74.9%, meaning nearly three-quarters of short-term holders who were previously in the red have returned to profitability. Meanwhile, the net trading platform flow of short-term holders turned positive from negative, rising to 28,600 BTC on August 24 and breaking through the key level of 25,000 BTC. Data shows that as the average realized profit of short-term holders turns positive, the amount of BTC they transfer to trading platforms has increased significantly, indicating rising potential selling pressure. If this indicator remains above 25,000 BTC while Bitcoin’s upward momentum slows, the risk of short-term profit-taking and distribution pressure in the market will further increase. The analysis points out that the rapid rebound in the profit proportion of short-term holders, paired with the simultaneous rise in inflows to trading platforms, reflects a coexistence of market recovery and potential selling pressure. If the profit supply proportion rises further above 90% while price momentum weakens, the risk of local overheating in the market will rise; conversely, if trading platform flow falls back to near zero and the profit supply remains above 50%, it is more likely that the market will enter a relatively healthy consolidation phase.