Analysis: Bitcoin's long positions have remained stable recently, while short positions have continued to decrease.

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Market forecasts show that July’s headline PCE will rise 0.1% month-over-month, with its year-on-year growth rate falling from 3.7% in June to 3.6%. Core PCE is expected to climb from 0.1% to 0.2% month-over-month, while its year-on-year rate holds at 3.3% — marking the 65th consecutive month above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. Notably, price increases in the AI industry chain, higher stock market valuations driving portfolio management fees, and rising energy costs due to Middle East tensions could all act as potential drivers of core inflation. Goldman Sachs estimates the stock market valuation factor alone may contribute roughly 0.11 percentage points to July’s core PCE month-over-month growth. What draws even greater market attention is that the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) plans to fully revise its PCE calculation methodology by the end of September. Going forward, adjustments may be made to price calculations for categories including computer hardware, stock portfolio management, and legal services, with possible historical data revisions that could complicate the interpretation of inflation figures. Currently, divisions over the Federal Reserve’s September policy path are intensifying. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 59.9% probability the Fed will hold interest rates steady in September, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike has risen to 40.1%. The market is also awaiting this week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to seek the latest signals from Fed Chair Powell on inflation and future interest rate policies.

Insight Beating AI Flash News: Sources familiar with the matter disclosed that Moonshot AI is in negotiations with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google regarding revenue-sharing agreements, under which the three major U.S. cloud computing giants would host its Kimi K3 model. Insiders said Moonshot AI is seeking up to a 30% share of revenue from Kimi K3-related services on Microsoft Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud, with terms largely aligned with those it provides to large clients using its open-weight models. Currently, Moonshot AI has already signed similar deals with some smaller cloud platforms. If the negotiations are concluded, the agreement could mark the first major model revenue-sharing collaboration between a Chinese AI company and a leading U.S. cloud computing firm. Meanwhile, Alibaba is also working to establish a revenue-sharing mechanism with key users of its new open-source AI model.

Beating AI News Brief: Jiyuan Ludong, founded by former head of Huawei's Pangu large model Wang Yunhe, has completed a new round of financing, with a valuation of several hundred million U.S. dollars and cumulative total financing exceeding tens of millions of U.S. dollars. The round was led by Honghui Fund. The company's core product is Routing Harness, which enables agents to automatically select and switch between different models during operation. Its OpenSquilla project has gained around 6,400 stars on GitHub; its multi-model API platform now has 54,000 users, with daily token calls exceeding 500 billion. In evaluations released by Jiyuan Ludong, a domestic multi-model combination outperformed Fable 5 on the DRACO research task, at approximately one-third of Fable 5's cost. Wang Yunhe's next plan is to train his own models, leveraging real tasks, model selection data and user feedback accumulated from the Harness, to advance from "helping agents pick models" to building Agent-Native Model capabilities.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the seventh consecutive trading day on Tuesday, raking in $314 million in a single session, pushing their cumulative net inflows for August to $3.03 billion—just $390 million short of the October 2025 monthly inflow record. With recent sustained capital inflows, the year-to-date net outflow gap for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has narrowed by more than half from its previous peak to $2.26 billion, while their total net assets rose to $99.05 billion, with cumulative net inflows hitting $54.36 billion. If the current trend continues, August is on track to be the strongest month for capital performance since October 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs also posted net inflows for seven straight trading days, attracting $179.8 million on Tuesday, with cumulative net inflows of roughly $1 billion over the past seven sessions. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $78,880, down approximately 2% over the past 24 hours after briefly breaking above $80,000 earlier; the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen from 74 to 65, though it remains in the "greed" zone.

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With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections entering the 10-week countdown, the Democratic Party currently leads by roughly 6 percentage points in generic congressional ballot polling, and markets are starting to assess the potential impact of its retaking control of Congress on financial markets. Analysts believe that if the Democrats take control of Congress, the U.S. could enter a "divided government" scenario, with major legislation potentially mired in prolonged political gridlock. Ed Mills, an analyst at Raymond James, noted that market volatility over the past two years has stemmed more from executive actions than legislation. If Trump faces congressional checks, the White House may advance policies—especially tariff measures—via more frequent and aggressive executive orders, which would heighten market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the U.S. debt ceiling has emerged as another major risk on Wall Street. Markets expect the U.S. government could hit the roughly $41.1 trillion debt ceiling by mid-2027. TD Securities warns that if the Democrats control Congress, they may use the debt ceiling to force the Republican Party to make policy concessions. A debt ceiling standoff could push up U.S. Treasury yields and intensify market volatility, with short-term Treasuries facing selling pressure as the "default trigger date" approaches. Additionally, if election results are delayed for a long time due to vote counting or legal disputes, markets could see a repeat of "election chaos," driving up risk aversion and boosting volatility. Analysts note that what Wall Street needs most right now is a clear, predictable election outcome.