Analysis: $1.8 Trillion 'Panic' Could Trigger 30% Volatility in Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been trading sideways recently, with markets closely monitoring surging global bond yields. Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, noted that Bitcoin’s recent volatility is at an all-time low, suggesting extreme price swings could emerge in the coming months. Historical data shows that in similar scenarios, Bitcoin’s median absolute price swing over the subsequent 60 days is around 30%. Global bond yields have surged sharply this week: the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002, the 20-year yield notched a new high since 2006, and the 10-year yield reached its highest since 2007. Markets attribute the rise in long-term yields to factors including widening U.S. fiscal deficits, rising costs for AI infrastructure, high oil prices, and monetary policy uncertainty. Yardeni Research stated that while the market is not yet in a "panic" state, it is closely monitoring whether so-called "bond vigilantes" will reassert control over the market. Bitunix analysts pointed out that market focus has shifted from whether the Federal Reserve will raise or cut interest rates to long-term U.S. Treasury yields, energy prices, inflation risks, and global risk premiums. Additionally, Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, said it is not ruled out that Bitcoin could experience another sharp drop in the coming months, even falling to the mid-$50,000 range. If historical patterns hold, the market may need to go through a final "panic-driven liquidation" to confirm the real bottom of this cycle.