Energy markets’ crack spreads expand to a record high, Bitcoin may face new pressure.

As crude oil prices pull back, refined product prices continue to climb. The U.S. diesel-crude oil crack spread has surged to $102.20 per barrel, hitting an all-time high. Disruptions to global energy supplies from the Iran and Ukraine conflicts have tightened diesel supplies, while the ongoing agricultural harvest season has boosted demand for fuel for farm equipment like tractors, further driving up diesel prices and potentially passing those costs to inflation via food, transportation, and heating expenses. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices have broken through the downtrend line formed since their April peak, signaling the end of the four-month downward trend. Should oil prices rise further, market inflation expectations could reheat. Energy prices and inflation risks, paired with government debt concerns, are pushing up yields on U.S. Treasuries and other developed-market bonds, raising the opportunity cost of holding risk assets like Bitcoin and potentially limiting BTC’s upside potential. However, a weaker U.S. dollar is still providing some support for Bitcoin. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 99.29 on Monday, hitting a two-and-a-half-month low and breaking below its prior uptrend line. Currently, Bitcoin is being influenced by multiple factors including oil prices, bond yields, and the U.S. dollar’s movement, with the macro environment showing clear divergence.