Analysis: Bitcoin is in the "extreme discount" zone of the Rainbow Chart, with its downward deviation surpassing that of the previous bear market bottom.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a post that Bitcoin is currently trading in the lowest range of the Rainbow Chart model — "basically a fire sale price". This represents an extreme discount relative to the cryptocurrency’s long-term price trajectory, and is not merely a measure of how much Bitcoin has declined. The Rainbow Chart model compares Bitcoin’s current price to its long-term trend, so the gap reflects the market’s deviation from historical patterns. The volatility-adjusted Z-Score now stands at -2.293, the lowest reading since 2016 and lower than the -1.979 recorded at the 2022 bear market bottom. This metric accounts for volatility differences across distinct market cycles, meaning the current downward deviation from the model is more severe than that seen at the last bear market’s trough. Bitcoin is now in an extreme discount zone, with the volatility-adjusted Z-Score hitting a 10-year low. This signals significant undervaluation relative to the model, but it does not alone confirm the final market bottom. Extremely low valuations point to a potentially attractive entry range, though a market reversal would need separate confirmation. Note: The Z-Score is a widely used standardized statistical metric that quantifies how far a data point lies from the mean, measured in units of standard deviation.