Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Analysis: Bitcoin’s 365-day Sharpe ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, a metric that has repeatedly correlated with bear market bottoms historically.

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 28% year-to-date. Its 365-day rolling Sharpe Ratio once dropped to around -21, the lowest level since the end of 2022, and remains near -20 currently. The Sharpe Ratio gauges an asset’s risk-adjusted return performance. A negative value means investors have taken on higher volatility risk while actual returns are lower than risk-free assets like 10-year U.S. Treasuries. Against the current U.S. Treasury yield of approximately 4.45%, this metric reflects that Bitcoin’s risk-return performance over the past year has clearly worsened. However, CryptoQuant points out that historically, such extreme negative Sharpe Ratio levels often signal market selling pressure is nearly exhausted. Similar levels appeared near Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022, all followed by the start of a new upward cycle for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin address dormant for nearly 15 years shows unusual activity, tied to New York lawsuit over ownership of "sleeping bitcoins"

A Bitcoin address dormant for nearly 15 years recently processed its first transfer, sending 30 BTC worth approximately $1.88 million at current prices. Galaxy Research on-chain data shows the address, labeled "1KV47," had not moved any funds since receiving 30 BTC in August 2011, until it sent funds externally for the first time last Saturday local time. This address is one of 39,069 dormant Bitcoin addresses involved in a New York lawsuit. Plaintiff "Noah Doe" and two Wyoming-registered companies are seeking to claim ownership of Bitcoin in these long-inactive addresses under New York State’s abandoned property law. Sani, founder of analytics platform Timechain Index, noted this group of addresses holds roughly 3.7 million BTC, valued at around $234 billion, including an address widely believed to belong to Bitcoin’s creator Satoshi Nakamoto. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said activity in dormant addresses linked to the lawsuit has risen sharply recently: 31 addresses transferred 17,527 BTC in June, compared to just 5 addresses moving 4,834 BTC in February this year. However, the legal community generally views the lawsuit as having weak grounds. Last Friday local time, a defendant identifying as "John Doe 33" who claims control over one of the addresses filed a motion to dismiss the suit, arguing Bitcoin addresses are merely data strings and not entities that can be sued. Edwin Mata, CEO and lawyer at tokenization platform Brickken, stated that an address’s long inactivity alone does not prove asset abandonment. Under property law, establishing abandonment typically requires proof that the owner explicitly intended to relinquish their property rights; dormant addresses may stem from long-term cold storage, lost private keys, or holders choosing to hold assets long-term, so they do not sufficiently support the plaintiffs’ claims.

Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds, yet spot trading volume shrinks rapidly, with risks of long squeezes in derivatives accumulating.

Crypto analyst Murphy notes that as Bitcoin rebounded from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, its spot relative volume plummeted rapidly. A rebound unsupported by spot demand is unlikely to form the foundation of a trend reversal, often being merely a sentiment-driven recovery rally, so its sustainability demands close monitoring. On the positive front, the USDC/USDT exchange rate has retreated from 1.001 to 1.0006, signaling waning exit intentions and recovering trading activity. While major stablecoins on trading platforms still remain in net outflow, the outflow magnitude has continued to narrow, and this marginal improvement in funding conditions underpins the rebound’s continuation. However, the weakening of spot drivers means derivatives have gained relatively more weight. The 7-day average long premium for perpetual contracts has climbed steadily to $160,000 per hour, indicating taker buy orders have persistently pushed perpetual contract prices above spot levels. Open interest has declined somewhat but remains significantly higher than levels in February this year. The current long premium is still within a normal range, but as the rebound persists, the risk of a long squeeze will keep building. Once open interest rebounds again, fierce battles between bulls and bears will trigger faster and more violent volatility—a hidden risk that requires advance attention.

The crypto market posts a minor recovery, with Bitcoin holding steady above $63,000, and total crypto market capitalization rising 1% over the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, the cryptocurrency market has seen a minor recovery, with Bitcoin holding steady above $63,000 and Ethereum briefly crossing $1,800. The total crypto market capitalization has risen 1% over the past 24 hours, now standing at $2.249 trillion. BNB briefly broke through $590, while SOL exceeded $80. Leading altcoin gainers include: ALICE up 15.2% in 24 hours; TRB up 13.3%; RESOLV up 10.85%; PUMP up 8.7%; and tokens previously listed on Binance’s monitoring list such as TLM, VANRY, and SYN surged over 20%.

South Korean Bitcoin treasury firm Bitplanet has reached a partnership with Antalpha, with plans to introduce mining equipment worth 15 billion South Korean won.

South Korean bitcoin treasury firm Bitplanet has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with U.S.-listed company Antalpha, planning to introduce 15 billion won worth of bitcoin mining equipment and launch full-scale mining operations this month. Future bitcoin output will be recognized as operating revenue and managed as long-term financial assets. The first-phase equipment is projected to generate over 7 BTC monthly, totaling more than 80 BTC annually. The mining rigs will be deployed in overseas regions with competitive electricity costs, including Oman and Paraguay, adopting an overseas hosting and joint venture operational model.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s AHR999 bottom index drops to 0.32, approaching its historical low.

Analyst Gaah published an analysis noting that Bitcoin’s AHR999 index has fallen to 0.32, approaching its all-time low. The metric gauges the deviation of Bitcoin’s current price from its long-term fair value and is widely used to develop dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies. When the AHR999 index is below its "buy zone", it is typically viewed as a favorable long-term allocation opportunity, helping investors avoid chasing high prices during rapid rallies. Bitcoin is currently in a phase of bottoming out and attempting to reverse the bear market trend, with its overall risk-reward ratio now showing notable appeal.

Cooling Fed interest rate hike expectations drive Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold to extend their rally.

After Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that inflation risks are easing, markets are betting the U.S. Federal Reserve will delay further interest rate hikes, pushing up prices of Bitcoin, gold, and silver. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has held steady for now; traders expect the greenback to remain strong ahead of the release of the Fed’s FOMC meeting minutes, as they wait for more monetary policy cues. According to HTX market data, as of press time, Bitcoin’s spot price is $63,640.1, up 0.93% in 24 hours; Ethereum’s spot price stands at $1,786.6, with a 24-hour gain of 0.4%. Per Bitget market data, spot gold trades at $4,172.2, a 1.21% increase in the last 24 hours.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has fallen into an extremely negative range, a level that historically often corresponds to its bottoming phase.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that Bitcoin’s (BTC) Sharpe Ratio has once again dropped below -20, entering extremely negative territory. While it has recovered slightly recently, historically this level typically aligns with periods of extremely bearish market sentiment. The Sharpe Ratio gauges investment returns relative to volatility and risk; a negative value indicates the current risk assumed outweighs the returns generated. As of press time, Bitcoin has posted three consecutive quarterly losses, with a 16.1% decline in the latest quarter. These extremely bearish phases often persist for weeks or even months, and are frequently accompanied by the formation of a new market bottom, paving the way for a subsequent market rebound. That said, this indicator reflects long-term trends and is not suitable as a short-term trading signal.

Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, potentially signaling another BTC purchase.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates on the Bitcoin Tracker, stating, "Bitcoin is digital energy." Following past patterns, Strategy typically discloses news of increasing its Bitcoin holdings the day after such related announcements are released.

Current funding rates on major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges show that bearish momentum for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) is easing, with market sentiment remaining neutral to slightly bearish.

According to Coinglass data, current funding rates on major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) crypto exchanges show that the bearish sentiment for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has weakened compared to earlier, but most platforms have not yet formed sustained bullish signals. Specifically, BTC funding rates on multiple platforms hover around the 0.0100% benchmark line, reflecting an overall neutral-to-weak pattern. For ETH, funding rates on multiple platforms have risen above the 0.005% threshold, with ETH’s long sentiment recovering slightly stronger than BTC’s, though no broad bullish signal has emerged yet. BlockBeats Note: Funding rates are fees set by crypto trading platforms to maintain the balance between perpetual contract prices and their underlying asset prices, typically applied to perpetual swaps. They function as a fund exchange mechanism between long and short traders; platforms do not collect this fee, instead using it to adjust the cost or return of holding contracts to keep contract prices aligned with underlying asset prices. A 0.01% funding rate is the benchmark. A rate above 0.01% indicates widespread bullish market sentiment, while a rate below 0.005% signals widespread bearish sentiment.

Michael Saylor: Bitcoin's "hard consensus" acts as its immune system, making it difficult for poorly conceived protocol changes to pass.

Michael Saylor stated in a post that Bitcoin's "Hard Consensus" serves as its immune system. Transaction fees determine the price of block space, nodes are responsible for formulating network strategies, miners build blocks, and holders express their choices through capital allocation. Saylor noted that any protocol change must secure overwhelming community consensus to be adopted, meaning flawed ideas are weeded out before they can become harmful modifications to the protocol.

Dave Portnoy, founder of Barstool Sports, stated he will hold onto Bitcoin even if it goes to zero, admitting he has repeatedly misjudged the timing of his Bitcoin trades.

Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy recently told Fox Business’ *Varney & Co.* that he will not sell his Bitcoin holdings even if the cryptocurrency drops to zero. He told host Stuart Varney, “I’m holding on forever, even if it goes to zero,” adding that he would rather “go down with the ship” this time than repeat his past mistake of selling only to see prices surge afterward. Portnoy admitted he bought Bitcoin at a high near $100,000 and is now sitting on millions in unrealized losses. He confessed that his Bitcoin trade is “the biggest mistake I’ve ever made,” noting that every time he sells, prices skyrocket, and every time he buys, prices drop. Notably, Portnoy has a history of controversial moves in the meme coin space: In February 2025, he launched the GREED token on Pump.fun, bought 35.79% of its total supply, then dumped all his holdings at once, causing the token to crash 99% while he pocketed around $258,000 in profits. After facing backlash, he released GREED2 and JAILSTOOL in succession, admitting during a live stream that he “did consider a rug pull, and might still be thinking about it.” He has also been involved in the collapse of the LIBRA token, which was endorsed by Argentine President Javier Milei: he bought $4.5 million worth of the token, later recovering $5 million in compensation. Earlier, he settled a lawsuit related to SafeMoon for $20,000.

Institutions: Bitcoin's decoupling from U.S. stock market trends may only be temporary.

Despite the U.S. stock market hitting successive new highs, Bitcoin has underperformed so far this year, but asset management firms Hashdex and Charles Schwab both believe this divergence will not persist long-term. Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage noted that current market capital is flowing more into themes like AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate trading rather than digital assets, a reflection of shifts in capital allocation rather than a deterioration of the crypto sector’s fundamentals. He pointed out that stablecoin trading volume in the first half of this year has already exceeded the full-year 2025 level, the size of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) has grown by over 60% year-to-date, crypto network transaction activity has also hit an all-time high, and the divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuations has reached a historic high. Meanwhile, Jim Ferraioli, Head of Digital Assets Research at Charles Schwab, holds that Bitcoin’s current trajectory still aligns with historical cycles following previous halving events. He explained that Bitcoin typically takes over a year to rebound above the production cost of inefficient miners, which currently stands at around $95,000, while the market’s average cost basis is roughly $80,000 – meaning the price may face ongoing selling pressure from investors exiting losing positions during a rebound. Ferraioli noted that while the "four-year halving cycle" is not an absolute rule, this pattern has profoundly shaped investor behavior. As the Bitcoin market matures, the magnitude of volatility in each future cycle may moderate somewhat.

Bitcoin broke through $63,000 this morning, erasing all losses from the end of June, with XRP leading gains among major cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin rose above $63,000 earlier today for the first time in two weeks, up roughly 3.6% from last week and nearly erasing losses from late June. The rally unfolded during thin trading volume for the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with low liquidity widely seen as amplifying short-term volatility. Among major cryptocurrencies, XRP gained 5.3% to reach $1.18, notching a nearly 10% weekly rise and lifting its market cap to around $73 billion, overtaking USDC to become the fifth-largest crypto asset. On-chain data shows XRP holders’ average losses have hit an extreme historical level, leading some traders to view this as a sentiment reversal signal. Ether (ETH) climbed 3.2% to approximately $1,793, with a weekly gain of ~11.5%; Dogecoin (DOGE) rose 2.6%; Solana (SOL) added around 13.2% week-over-week, extending the broader rebound trend. Analysts attribute the rally to Federal Reserve officials signaling easing inflation pressure, weaker non-farm payroll data, and short covering, with Bitcoin bouncing rapidly from below $60,000 to above $63,000. The market’s future trajectory will hinge on upcoming U.S. inflation data and the return of institutional liquidity after the holiday.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows for the eighth consecutive week, marking the longest such streak in history.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a cumulative net outflow of roughly $527 million over the four trading days ending July 2, marking their eighth consecutive week of net outflows and setting the longest weekly outflow streak since the product category launched. While the sector recorded a single-day net inflow of $221.72 million on July 2, ending a prior streak of 10 consecutive trading days with total outflows of around $2.71 billion, the overall weekly outflow trend remained unreversed. Among the products, Fidelity’s FBTC saw a single-day net inflow of $165.96 million, while ARKB (from ARK and 21Shares) posted a net inflow of $91.84 million. In contrast, BlackRock’s IBIT logged a net outflow of $40.43 million that day, marking its 11th consecutive trading day of redemptions, with total outflows reaching roughly $2.2 billion. Separately, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a weekly net outflow of $13.67 million for the week ending July 2, extending their streak of weekly net outflows to eight consecutive weeks and matching the all-time longest outflow streak. However, the sector has posted net inflows for two consecutive trading days, with BlackRock’s ETHA notching a $29.74 million net inflow on July 2. Meanwhile, U.S. Hyperliquid ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $4.32 million, the lowest single-week inflow since their launch in mid-May, a sharp slowdown from the prior week’s record $111.36 million net inflow.

Analysis: Long-term holders’ holdings hit an all-time high, potentially signaling Bitcoin’s current cycle has bottomed out ahead of schedule.

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten stated that Bitcoin Long-Term Holder (LTH) holdings have hit an all-time high. This metric has historically coincided with market cycle bottoms, suggesting Bitcoin could bottom earlier in this cycle compared to previous ones. Per Glassnode data, long-term holders hold approximately 14.7 million Bitcoins, an all-time peak, indicating veteran investors retain strong confidence in holding the asset. Klippsten believes this trend signals the market bottom may arrive sooner. However, not all share this view. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, previously noted Bitcoin may bottom between October and December 2026. He explained that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)’s mNAV (market value relative to Bitcoin reserves net asset value) typically bottoms roughly six months ahead of Bitcoin; currently, the metric stands at 0.72, near the 2022 bear market low of 0.7, leading him to project this cycle’s Bitcoin bottom will land in the $42,000 to $44,000 range. Separately, Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, warned that if the U.S. CLARITY Act fails to pass this year, Bitcoin reserve firms like Strategy may continue deleveraging, adding further downward pressure to Bitcoin prices. Galaxy Digital has also lowered the probability of the bill being enacted by 2026 to 50%, citing a limited time window for the U.S. Senate to advance related legislation before its August recess.

Bitcoin falls below $59,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $59,000, posting a 2.80% decline over the past 24 hours.

Dubai-based private bank Goldman Lampe announced it purchased approximately €120 million worth of Bitcoin during a market dip.

Goldman Lampe Private Bank, headquartered in Ras Al Khaimah, UAE, announced it has capitalized on the recent crypto market pullback to acquire approximately €120 million worth of Bitcoin. The bank claims to be the world’s first financial institution to launch cryptocurrency time deposit products. Its board chairman stated that this dip investment aims to strengthen institutional holdings and solidify the bank’s leading position in the integration of traditional private banking and crypto assets. Founded in 1934, the bank’s core businesses include private banking, wealth management and gold trading.

Bitcoin currently has a $4.4 billion supply overhang, with weak institutional demand weighing on its rebound prospects.

Although Bitcoin has recently stabilized near $60,000, its rebound outlook remains dim. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin ETFs have sold off 71,600 BTC this month, worth over $4 billion, marking the largest single-month redemption in history. Meanwhile, enterprises and digital asset custodians have only added 7,500 BTC to their holdings. Combined with daily new mining supply, the net gap reaches roughly 77,000 BTC (valued at around $4.4 billion), creating a notable "supply glut". Against this backdrop, Strategy (MSTR), the largest Bitcoin-focused digital asset firm, announced a Bitcoin monetization plan on Monday, authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin, primarily to build a $2.55 billion USD reserve to cover preferred stock dividends and interest expenses. Analysts note that if capital flows do not turn positive and institutional demand fails to recover, any price rebound is likely to be short-lived. The only factor currently supporting Bitcoin is the long USD positioning in the foreign exchange market. Elsewhere, UK regulators have cut the capital buffer requirement for stablecoin issuers from 2% to 1%; the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen to -0.90, its lowest level since late 2022, challenging the "carry trade" theory; and global oil prices are seeing their largest quarterly decline since 2020, with markets focusing on the progress of US-Iran talks.

BlackRock deposits approximately $344 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum with Coinbase Prime.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, BlackRock's address deposited 4,984.56 Bitcoin (valued at approximately $295 million) and 30,725 Ethereum (valued at approximately $48.58 million) into a Coinbase Prime address, totaling around $344 million.

Michael Saylor’s First Public Statement Following MicroStrategy’s New Policy: Stronger Credit, Stronger Equity, More Bitcoin

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor delivered his first public remarks after the release of the "Digital Credit Capital Framework": "Stronger credit, stronger equity, more Bitcoin." Saylor’s declaration appears to explain the motivation behind the launch of the framework—specifically, the strategic logic of achieving more Bitcoin holdings by strengthening credit and equity structures.

Sources: At least one sovereign wealth fund is adding to its spot Bitcoin holdings on the dip.

MidChains CEO Basil Al Askari stated that "at least one" sovereign wealth fund is adding to its spot Bitcoin holdings amid the price downturn, while another sovereign wealth fund may begin buying in the coming weeks. He noted this sends a very clear signal to other institutions that might still be on the sidelines, as they view these large funds as leaders in the asset class. MidChains is a regulated cryptocurrency trading platform based in Abu Dhabi, backed by sovereign wealth fund Mubadala. Prior to founding MidChains, Askari worked in the private equity team of Mubadala Capital, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, and held roles in GE Capital’s commercial finance teams across the US, UK, and UAE, with extensive experience in financial investment and operations.

Spanish coffee chain Vanadi Coffee adds 10 Bitcoin to its holdings, bringing its total Bitcoin position to 223.

According to monitoring by BitcoinTreasuries.NET, Spanish coffee chain Vanadi Coffee has added 10 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 223 Bitcoin.

So far this year, ETFs have recorded outflows of 100,000 Bitcoin, with the outflow rate hitting an all-time high.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost cited data showing that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net outflow of over 100,000 BTC in 2026, marking the largest annual capital outflow since the ETF’s inception. Additionally, since the October 2025 peak, the ETF has seen a cumulative outflow of more than 160,000 BTC.

Analysis: Long-term holders hold 16 million Bitcoin, with the market approaching the late stage of the bear market.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated in a recent post that Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV ratio has fallen to 1.24, near its three-year low, signaling BTC is approaching the cost base of long-term holders. Currently, the average cost for LTHs is roughly $48,400, while BTC trades at around $59,000, meaning the average unrealized profit for long-term holders has narrowed to about 24%, with a roughly 19% gap from their cost line. Adler added that long-term holders have not engaged in significant selling: LTH holdings have reached a new all-time high of approximately 16.1 million BTC, and the spending metric remains at a low level, indicating the recent price drop is primarily a market correction rather than capitulation selling by long-term holders.

Binance will conduct wallet maintenance on the Bitcoin network.

Per an official announcement, Binance will conduct wallet maintenance for the Bitcoin (BTC) network at 09:00 UTC+8 on July 1, 2026. To support this maintenance, Binance will suspend Bitcoin (BTC) network deposits and withdrawals starting at the same time. The maintenance is expected to take 1 hour, and deposits and withdrawals will automatically resume once it is completed.

Tom Lee: Cryptocurrencies are high-volatility assets, and macro headwinds are pressuring Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine – which holds Ethereum’s largest treasury – stated in a post that cryptocurrencies are a high-volatility asset class, with multiple macro headwinds currently weighing on Bitcoin and Ethereum. These headwinds include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act, AI FOMO, and private credit’s impact on capital flows. Still, he noted that bullish factors for the crypto market persist: tokenization is a mega-trend, crypto operates as a downstream segment of AI, money is becoming digital and software-based, and current market sentiment is extremely poor, possibly near the "pain peak".

CZ comments on MicroStrategy: The company’s asset structure is overly complex, but he views Michael Saylor as a "steadfast Bitcoin supporter".

In an interview, CZ stated that Strategy’s preferred stock STRC structure is "too complicated", noting that "it took many attempts to understand STRC". The product relies on Bitcoin as underlying collateral, creating a structural contradiction: while Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation thesis may be valid, its volatility makes it a challenging base for leverage instruments. CZ also emphasized he is not commenting on founder Michael Saylor’s credibility, describing him as a "firm Bitcoin supporter".

Glassnode: Bitcoin temporarily stabilizes at $60,000, the market lacks confidence and shows a clear defensive posture.

Glassnode’s weekly market summary notes that Bitcoin’s current overall trend is defensive: the spot market is in a consolidation phase. Trading activity has increased, but net selling persists, with liquidity mainly used for distribution rather than accumulation. Deleveraging in the derivatives market continues, as traders lean toward downside protection rather than directional bets. Funding rates remain relatively low, reflecting overall market caution. For institutional activity: U.S. spot ETFs are now in overall unrealized losses, with persistent net outflows, and institutional investors are reluctant to add positions. Despite still-high trading volumes, capital flows are dominated by exits. Overall, Bitcoin is currently stabilizing near $60,000, but spot order flow, derivatives positions, and institutional demand all remain defensive. A significant return of buyer confidence is required for a sustained recovery. The market is still in a phase of structural adjustment and capital contraction.

Following MicroStrategy’s announcement of its new plan, Bitcoin initially rallied then pulled back, and is now once again trading below $60,000.

Following the announcement of Strategy’s "Digital Credit Capital Framework", both MSTR and STRC posted notable rebounds. Meanwhile, Bitcoin saw a volatile move: it hit a one-hour high of $60,700, up 1.31%, before pulling back. The cryptocurrency is now back below $60,000, trading at $59,914.75.

He Yi on "freezing Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin after anti-quantum upgrade": This is not CZ’s original idea; his intent is to spark broader discussion.

Recently, CZ stated in an interview that if Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin addresses remain untouched long after Bitcoin’s anti-quantum upgrade, the associated Bitcoins should be frozen. The remark has sparked widespread debate in the crypto community. In response, He Yi noted: "The threat of quantum attacks is a core argument many in the mainstream community use to claim the Bitcoin network is not viable long-term. Addressing quantum attacks is also one of the key focuses of current discussions in the Bitcoin community. Over the years, the Bitcoin network has remained robust despite hard forks—when problems arise, we solve them. Entrepreneurs have always turned impossibilities into realities. The point CZ raised is one of the existing proposals within the Bitcoin community, centered on how to counter hacker attack threats. This time, he simply brought a topic being debated in the Bitcoin community into a mainstream interview for discussion."

Strategy did not buy any Bitcoin last week.

According to an official announcement, Strategy did not sell any Bitcoin last week. It currently holds 847,363 BTC, valued at $54.98 billion, and faces a loss of over $12.9 billion.

MicroStrategy is poised to halt its decline, Bitcoin accelerates its recovery, surging over 1% in the past hour.

Following the announcement of Strategy’s Digital Credit Capital Framework, both MSTR and STRC have posted notable rebounds, and are expected to halt their declines and stabilize on the back of this positive development. Meanwhile, HTX market data shows Bitcoin is currently trading at $60,668.35, with a 1.31% gain over the past hour.

Interpretation of MicroStrategy's New Plan: Board Authorizes Bitcoin Sales Under Three Scenarios

Strategy today launched its "Digital Credit Capital Framework," establishing a Bitcoin monetization plan and two $1 billion repurchase plans. Under the framework, the board of directors has authorized Strategy to sell Bitcoin periodically for three core purposes: 1. US dollar reserve replenishment: Generate up to $1.25 billion in additional proceeds to boost its US dollar reserves, which currently stand at approximately $2.55 billion (including unsettled proceeds from partial ATM sales). 2. Preferred stock dividend and interest payments: Use Bitcoin sale proceeds for dividend or interest payments when this is more cost-effective than issuing new shares or pursuing other financing, or to replenish reserves after such payments are made. 3. Repurchase support: Fund the aforementioned preferred stock and common stock repurchase plans, including covering related taxes and transaction fees. Important restrictions apply to all three use cases; any Bitcoin sales exceeding the specified purposes or amounts require additional board approval. The framework has no fixed expiration date, does not mandate the sale of any Bitcoin, and the company may modify, suspend, or terminate it at any time. BlockBeats believes this plan is essentially an authorization mechanism, functioning like a toolkit for management to monetize Bitcoin when cash is needed—such as paying high preferred stock dividends, replenishing reserves, or repurchasing shares to support the stock price. Against the backdrop of the crypto bear market, this is a flexible liquidity management strategy Strategy has been forced to adopt, though its core strategy remains long-term Bitcoin holdings and amplifying its exposure to Bitcoin through financial instruments.

Analyst: Bitcoin’s first "bottoming" signal has emerged, but this does not mean the end of the bear market.

Crypto analyst Moreno published a note stating that the Bitcoin market is now showing the first clear signs of a deeper market clearing phase. When Bitcoin’s UTXO profit/loss ratio is at a high level, most UTXO blocks remain profitable, typically reflecting the market still holds large unrealized gains and signals high profit-taking (distribution) pressure. Conversely, when this ratio falls to a lower range, overall profit levels contract, losses widen, and the market enters a deeper clearing and reset phase. The current reading fits this pattern. The ratio has now dropped into a range that has historically coincided with Bitcoin’s market bottoming phases, though this does not mean the market has completed bottoming. To confirm a stronger bottoming signal, the 365-day moving average needs to decline significantly further — a sign the market’s long-term profit structure is undergoing a full reset, not just a short-term oversold condition. In other words, Bitcoin may still face additional downward pressure before exiting its current bear market phase. Short squeezes and temporary rallies could still occur, especially if short positions become overly crowded. However, unless the overall profit/loss ratio establishes a sustainable improvement trend, these upward moves should not be viewed as a structural market reversal.

Recently, over 550,000 Bitcoin have flowed into deposit addresses of Binance and OKX, marking a new high since the 2023 bear market.

Crypto Quant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that as Bitcoin recently dipped below $60,000 again, a large number of investors have transferred their Bitcoin to exchanges. Data shows more than 220,000 BTC flowed into deposit addresses linked to Binance’s hot wallet, and over 330,000 BTC entered OKX-related deposit addresses, totaling over 550,000 BTC—marking the largest such inflow this year and the highest level since the 2023 bear market. Typically, when users plan to sell Bitcoin, they first transfer funds to deposit addresses before aggregating them into the exchange’s operational wallet. As such, this massive inflow reflects panic among some investors after Bitcoin tested the $60,000 threshold, with increased potential selling pressure. However, the data does not mean all these BTC have been sold; it only signals a rise in exchanges’ selling willingness.

Grayscale: Bitcoin bear market has two evolution paths, still bullish on crypto assets in the long term.

According to Grayscale’s latest research report, Bitcoin has pulled back more than 50% from its October 2025 peak of roughly $125,000, dropping below $60,000. The report frames this decline as a cyclical correction within Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend, not a reversal of its long-term trajectory. Grayscale notes that Bitcoin’s recent downward pressure stems from multiple factors: expectations of a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy, uncertainty over the legislative prospects of the CLARITY Act, balance sheet strains at crypto firm Strategy, and investor concerns about potential security risks from quantum computing. Notably, after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated hawkish Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, markets have shifted from pricing in interest rate cuts to expecting hikes this year—undermining Bitcoin’s investment thesis as an asset hedging against currency devaluation. Two core scenarios shape Bitcoin’s outlook: In the baseline case, if the CLARITY Act passes the Senate smoothly, Strategy improves its balance sheet, and the Fed pauses rate hikes, Bitcoin may have neared the bottom of this cycle. In the pessimistic scenario, if the bill fails to pass this year, digital asset firms continue deleveraging, and stubborn inflation forces the Fed to raise rates, Bitcoin prices could fall further. Still, given this bull run has been relatively moderate and institutional demand is more solid, this pullback is not expected to replicate the roughly 80% peak-to-trough decline seen in historical cycles. Grayscale added that it remains bullish on the long-term growth prospects of public blockchains and digital assets over the next decade.

Recent whale liquidation threshold: If Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fall below $58,000, a certain whale's $16.3 million long position will be liquidated.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, an address (0x9311) on Hyperliquid holds a heavily leveraged long position on Bitcoin. Currently, it has opened a 40x long position of approximately 272.7 BTC, with a nominal value of around $16.3 million, at an average entry price of roughly $60,519, and a liquidation price of $57,640. Bitcoin is currently trading at $59,720, and this long position has an unrealized loss of about $210,000 (-50%). The whale’s liquidation line is only ~3.5% (roughly $2,085) away from the current price, making it the BTC address with the closest liquidation level among all whales holding tens of millions in positions on Hyperliquid. If Bitcoin falls another ~3.5% from current levels, breaking below $57,640 (the $58,000 threshold), this $16.3 million long position will trigger forced liquidation. Amid Bitcoin’s continued weakness in recent trading, the address added to its losing position to average down its entry cost. The latest addition occurred on June 29, when it opened additional long positions at $59,347; the position has been gradually built up since June 24 via thousands of trades. HyperInsight Bot is now live. Add @HyperInsightBot to your TG group and set it as an admin (enable message sending permission) to automatically sync on-chain news.

Bitcoin falls below $59,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $59,000, with a 2.04% decline over the past 24 hours.

Yilihua: July and August will be the best time to buy the dip, and this will be Bitcoin’s final major pullback.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yilihua stated, “This marks the third wave of decline since 1011. Per wave theory and cycle patterns, this will be Bitcoin’s final major downturn. The key factors driving Bitcoin’s bottom price that everyone is concerned about are US stocks and MicroStrategy. It remains unclear whether the Federal Reserve’s CPI concerns will shift expectations for interest rate cuts or even hikes, which could trigger sustained pullbacks in US equities. Additionally, past bear market tails often witness black swan events or major blowups, which have not materialized this time and require close monitoring. Calculated based on Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000, a 60% drop would reach $51,000, while a 66% decline would hit $43,000. Either way, July to August should be the final window—both the best time to buy the dip and the most worthwhile trading opportunity in the next three years.”

Samson Mow asserts that Bitcoin has reached its bottom, as analysts’ views on the market outlook have grown increasingly divergent.

Jan3 CEO Samson Mow today asserted that Bitcoin has reached its bottom. His core argument is that Bitcoin hit its then all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving, an anomaly indicating the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated, rendering historically reliable timing patterns no longer applicable. “Even if you believe in the cycle, you should conclude that it has accelerated.” However, the market is far from reaching a consensus: Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes the bottom is more likely at $55,000, with a time window between August and October; BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bearish, predicting Bitcoin will hit roughly $40,000 within six months; senior analyst James Van Straten notes that Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average, with on-chain data suggesting the $50,000–$54,000 range could be the next key battleground. Since 2011, every major Bitcoin bear market has only confirmed its cycle bottom after falling below its realized price, and this signal has not yet emerged in the current cycle.

Galaxy CEO: MicroStrategy has evolved into a key confidence signal for the overall Bitcoin market, with $59,000 serving as a critical support level.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin’s recent decline is a "confidence collapse triggered by Strategy". The issue extends beyond Bitcoin’s price itself: concerns over Strategy’s financing model are spreading across the market. As the world’s largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin, Strategy’s stocks and senior securities have become key metrics for traders to gauge Bitcoin market risk. Earlier, the company’s Bitcoin flywheel effect came under pressure, with its stock once trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings—meaning its years-long reliance on the "issuing stock at a premium to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases" model is now facing challenges. Novogratz bluntly noted that STRC (Strategy’s ticker) is trading weakly, and it should have held steady around $100. Currently, Strategy’s annual dividend obligations have risen to roughly $1.2 billion, and shrinking cash reserves have cut the dividend coverage period to just about 14 months. On the macro front, Bitcoin also faces pressure. Novogratz summed up the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin": hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening US dollar are suppressing demand for risk assets. Technically, the $59,000 to $60,000 range has become a critical support level for Bitcoin; a break below could open downside space to $45,000. Novogratz also admitted the current situation is complex, with an equal 50/50 probability of a rebound or deep correction. ETF outflows, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the market’s fragile sentiment. Today, Strategy’s balance sheet health, STRC’s price performance, and cash position are no longer just company-level issues—they have evolved into a confidence signal for the entire Bitcoin market.

Michael Saylor has once again released updates for his Bitcoin Tracker, potentially signaling another round of BTC accumulation.

Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, has once again shared updates on Bitcoin Tracker, remarking, “We are gonna need more charts.” Per historical trends, MicroStrategy typically announces increases to its Bitcoin holdings the day after such statements.

Bitcoin may record a historically rare decline over two consecutive quarters.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 over the weekend, logging a roughly 7% decline in the past week. As the second quarter draws to a close, Bitcoin is on track to post a roughly 12% quarterly drop, following a 22% fall in the first quarter, which would mark a rare back-to-back quarterly loss in its history. Meanwhile, altcoins have generally seen steeper declines than Bitcoin: Ethereum fell around 9.5% in the past week, Dogecoin dropped 11.7%, HYPE slipped 10.6%, XRP declined 8.7%, Solana fell 3.5%, and TRON saw a roughly 1.5% drop. Analysts attribute the market’s ongoing pressure to multiple factors, including sustained capital flows into AI-driven semiconductor and memory chip sectors, persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, and the U.S. Dollar Index staying at high levels. The market will watch closely for ETF capital flows and demand improvements in the third quarter to judge whether the crypto market can shake off its weak performance in the first half of the year.

Head of Grayscale Research advises Strategy to sell over $3 billion worth of Bitcoin to improve its capital structure and restore market confidence.

Grayscale Research Head of Research Zach Pandl stated that instead of raising STRC preferred stock dividend rates by 50 basis points, it would be better to sell over $30 billion worth of Bitcoin to fulfill cash payment obligations and restore market confidence. Spot On Chain’s analysis notes that as an institutional research figure, Zach Pandl’s public recommendation that Strategy sell over $30 billion in BTC carries certain indicator significance. If Strategy ultimately proceeds with large-scale sales, it will exert considerable selling pressure on the market and may undermine the narrative of the firm’s continuous Bitcoin hoarding. This perspective also reflects market concerns over Strategy’s capital structure and the sustainability of its highly Bitcoin-reliant balance sheet. Going forward, attention should be paid to Strategy’s official response and whether actual Bitcoin transfers are detected in its on-chain wallets.

This current Bitcoin bear market has lasted 237 days, marking the fourth-longest in history, but its decline is the smallest of any previous cycle.

According to a new study from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has experienced seven bear markets since 2014. CoinGecko defines a bear market as a period where Bitcoin’s closing price remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for more than 30 consecutive days. Data shows that as of June 28, 2026, the current 2025-2026 bear market has lasted 237 days, making it the fourth-longest in history. Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high of roughly $124,800 in January 2025, hitting a low of approximately $58,115 on June 25, with a maximum drawdown of 53.43% — the smallest decline of any bear market on record. CoinGecko attributes the relatively mild drop in this cycle to factors including increased institutional participation, maturing market infrastructure, and macroeconomic factors such as interest rate fluctuations and capital flows to artificial intelligence. By contrast, the three bear markets triggered by major industry events in 2014-2015, 2018-2019, and 2022-2023 all saw maximum declines ranging from 76.7% to 83.6%. CoinGecko notes that historical data shows Bitcoin typically takes 65 to 166 days to reclaim its 200-day SMA after confirming a temporary bottom. If the June 25 low holds, Bitcoin could retake the average as early as the end of August this year, though a longer recovery period is not ruled out.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s UTXO metric triggers the first capitulation signal of this bear market, potentially entering a bottoming phase.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has stated that Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) profit/loss ratio has fallen to its lowest level since the current bear market, indicating the market is entering a broader "capitulation" phase — the first time this indicator has sent such a signal during the ongoing correction. Darkfost pointed out that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss has reached a significant level; historically, this stage often corresponds to bear market bottom zones, presenting favorable allocation opportunities for long-term investors. The last time the indicator hit a similar low was in mid-2023, when Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $26,000. Another analyst, DurdenBTC, also noted that the UTXO bottom signal has been triggered. The indicator has successfully captured every market bottom since 2016, though actual bottom formation still requires time, and short-term market sentiment may remain subdued. Darkfost further added that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders is gradually turning negative, showing long-term holders are starting to capitulate, while the current correction is mainly driven by short-term holders transferring large volumes of Bitcoin to exchanges. On-chain analytics firm Swissblock believes Bitcoin has largely completed the first stage of its decline and is now in the bottom-building phase, with prices stabilizing but market momentum still weak. Additionally, risk aversion has risen amid U.S. weekend airstrikes on Iranian targets. Bitcoin briefly fell to $59,800 before rebounding to around $60,100.

Analysis: Weak demand from U.S. institutions may keep Bitcoin under pressure and range-bound in the short term.

Bitfire Group stated in its latest market commentary that Bitcoin’s negative premium on Coinbase has continued to widen, signaling persistent weakness in U.S. institutional buying. Meanwhile, Strategy’s income preferred stock (ticker: STRC) briefly dipped below $84. Though there is no immediate liquidation risk, market concerns over whether the firm will need to sell Bitcoin continue to weigh on sentiment. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with short-term MAs in a bearish alignment. The daily RSI stands at around 40—weak but not yet in oversold territory. The overall Bollinger Bands are sloping downward, with the middle band acting as strong resistance. Bitfire Group believes that with a lack of sustained bullish momentum and bears still holding the upper hand, Bitcoin will likely continue fluctuating below resistance levels in the short term, further testing actual buying demand on the downside. Key resistance levels are at $64,650, $66,900, and $69,800, while the main support level is at $63,500.

Crypto stocks have fallen far more sharply than large-cap tech stocks: Coinbase and Circle have declined 69% and 72% respectively from their peaks, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $60,000, exacerbating bearish sentiment.

Amid a broad sell-off in tech stocks, crypto-related equities have seen particularly steep declines, with their divergence from the broader market continuing to widen. Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) have fallen 69% and 72% respectively from their all-time highs, far outpacing the 48% to 57% pullbacks of major tech stocks including Oracle, Salesforce, Netflix, and Palantir. By comparison, the S&P 500 index has dropped just 3.5% from its recent peak. Fundamentally, Coinbase’s first-quarter results missed Wall Street estimates by a wide margin: revenue fell 21% quarter-over-quarter, posting a loss of $1.49 per share, while analysts had previously projected earnings of $0.27 per share. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 this week, down more than 54% from its October peak. Ethereum also dropped to around $1,500, roughly 69% lower than its record high last year, as market sentiment continues to deteriorate. In its mid-year outlook report, 21Shares cut its 2026 crypto market forecast, noting that digital asset price performance is significantly lagging behind the sector’s fundamentals. The firm pointed out that institutional adoption continues to deepen, with stablecoins, asset tokenization, and prediction markets all maintaining strong growth momentum, but Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle remains the dominant driver of price movements. The report also acknowledged a prior misjudgment: “Bitcoin’s cycle is evolving, but it has not broken,” retracting its earlier claim that the four-year cycle was obsolete. Analysts argue that the sharp pullback in crypto equities reflects a combination of three pressures: overall weakness in the digital asset market, uncertainty surrounding structural legislation for the U.S. crypto market, and the potential impact of AI technology on existing business models.

Fidelity refutes the claim that Bitcoin halving undermines the cryptocurrency’s security: Miners’ daily revenue has risen from $26,300 to $40.2 million.

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released a research report addressing concerns that Bitcoin’s halving will long-term weaken the network’s security. The report’s author, Fidelity research analyst Daniel Gray, noted that Bitcoin network security does not solely depend on block rewards; transaction fees, market incentives, and other economic forces also continuously motivate miners to maintain network security, making sustained attacks prohibitively costly. On the data front, Gray pointed out that while block subsidies have continued to decline, the rise in Bitcoin’s price has largely offset this impact. Miners’ average daily revenue has surged from roughly $26,300 during Bitcoin’s first halving cycle to over $40.2 million today. He wrote: “Despite the decline in issuance, miner incentives—and by extension, network security—have historically strengthened alongside Bitcoin’s price growth.” Since Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April 2024, miners’ per-block subsidy has dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. However, the report’s optimistic conclusion stands in sharp contrast to the reality of publicly traded mining companies. Multiple industry analysts have described the current period as one of the most challenging mining environments on record, driven by concurrent declines in block rewards, rising operating costs, and intensifying competition. In response, several mining firms have begun transitioning to AI and high-performance computing sectors, leveraging their existing power infrastructure to meet AI computing demand. VanEck estimates that public mining companies may need to raise up to $50 billion in additional capital to fully transition to AI infrastructure, though AI data centers have far higher requirements for facility standards, cooling, power redundancy, and networks than traditional Bitcoin mines, making the transition’s difficulty non-negligible.