Samson Mow asserts that Bitcoin has reached its bottom, as analysts’ views on the market outlook have grown increasingly divergent.

Jan3 CEO Samson Mow today asserted that Bitcoin has reached its bottom. His core argument is that Bitcoin hit its then all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving, an anomaly indicating the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated, rendering historically reliable timing patterns no longer applicable. “Even if you believe in the cycle, you should conclude that it has accelerated.” However, the market is far from reaching a consensus: Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes the bottom is more likely at $55,000, with a time window between August and October; BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bearish, predicting Bitcoin will hit roughly $40,000 within six months; senior analyst James Van Straten notes that Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average, with on-chain data suggesting the $50,000–$54,000 range could be the next key battleground. Since 2011, every major Bitcoin bear market has only confirmed its cycle bottom after falling below its realized price, and this signal has not yet emerged in the current cycle.