Institutions: Bitcoin's decoupling from U.S. stock market trends may only be temporary.

Despite the U.S. stock market hitting successive new highs, Bitcoin has underperformed so far this year, but asset management firms Hashdex and Charles Schwab both believe this divergence will not persist long-term. Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage noted that current market capital is flowing more into themes like AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate trading rather than digital assets, a reflection of shifts in capital allocation rather than a deterioration of the crypto sector’s fundamentals. He pointed out that stablecoin trading volume in the first half of this year has already exceeded the full-year 2025 level, the size of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) has grown by over 60% year-to-date, crypto network transaction activity has also hit an all-time high, and the divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuations has reached a historic high. Meanwhile, Jim Ferraioli, Head of Digital Assets Research at Charles Schwab, holds that Bitcoin’s current trajectory still aligns with historical cycles following previous halving events. He explained that Bitcoin typically takes over a year to rebound above the production cost of inefficient miners, which currently stands at around $95,000, while the market’s average cost basis is roughly $80,000 – meaning the price may face ongoing selling pressure from investors exiting losing positions during a rebound. Ferraioli noted that while the "four-year halving cycle" is not an absolute rule, this pattern has profoundly shaped investor behavior. As the Bitcoin market matures, the magnitude of volatility in each future cycle may moderate somewhat.