Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s UTXO metric triggers the first capitulation signal of this bear market, potentially entering a bottoming phase.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has stated that Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) profit/loss ratio has fallen to its lowest level since the current bear market, indicating the market is entering a broader "capitulation" phase — the first time this indicator has sent such a signal during the ongoing correction. Darkfost pointed out that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss has reached a significant level; historically, this stage often corresponds to bear market bottom zones, presenting favorable allocation opportunities for long-term investors. The last time the indicator hit a similar low was in mid-2023, when Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $26,000. Another analyst, DurdenBTC, also noted that the UTXO bottom signal has been triggered. The indicator has successfully captured every market bottom since 2016, though actual bottom formation still requires time, and short-term market sentiment may remain subdued. Darkfost further added that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders is gradually turning negative, showing long-term holders are starting to capitulate, while the current correction is mainly driven by short-term holders transferring large volumes of Bitcoin to exchanges. On-chain analytics firm Swissblock believes Bitcoin has largely completed the first stage of its decline and is now in the bottom-building phase, with prices stabilizing but market momentum still weak. Additionally, risk aversion has risen amid U.S. weekend airstrikes on Iranian targets. Bitcoin briefly fell to $59,800 before rebounding to around $60,100.