Analysis: Weak demand from U.S. institutions may keep Bitcoin under pressure and range-bound in the short term.

Against the backdrop of continued gains in South Korea’s stock market and surging trading activity, South Korea’s financial regulators have recently issued a series of risk warnings to cool the overheated market. According to reports, South Korean regulators have issued risk warnings on leveraged and inverse products tied to individual stocks including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, expressed concern over the rising balance of margin trading and short selling, and are exploring measures such as taxing unrealized stock gains to curb market speculation. Current phenomena in South Korea’s stock market—including widespread retail participation, extremely crowded trading, rapid growth of leveraged funds, a surge in new investors, and large IPOs absorbing massive capital—closely resemble market characteristics seen during multiple historical asset bubble periods. History shows that asset bubble bursts are often accompanied by wealth erosion, weakened consumer and investor confidence, rising risks for financial institutions, and long-term economic adjustments. Regulators’ early issuance of risk warnings amid the speculative boom aims to prevent the market from repeating the systemic shocks caused by historical bubble bursts.

In response to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report that China’s Zhipu AI has matched Anthropic in certain cybersecurity benchmark tests, market participant Serenity stated that rather than attributing this outcome to U.S. government policies, it is more reasonable to argue that Anthropic failed to establish sufficient model protection mechanisms to prevent model distillation. Serenity noted that prior to Anthropic’s launch of Fable, there were already industry rumors that Chinese teams could distill its models. He emphasized that the key to AI competition lies not only in investing massive capital expenditures (CapEx) to build technological moats, but also in protecting core model capabilities to avoid "handing over" achievements through methods such as large-scale API calls.

According to a new study from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has experienced seven bear markets since 2014. CoinGecko defines a bear market as a period where Bitcoin’s closing price remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for more than 30 consecutive days. Data shows that as of June 28, 2026, the current 2025-2026 bear market has lasted 237 days, making it the fourth-longest in history. Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high of roughly $124,800 in January 2025, hitting a low of approximately $58,115 on June 25, with a maximum drawdown of 53.43% — the smallest decline of any bear market on record. CoinGecko attributes the relatively mild drop in this cycle to factors including increased institutional participation, maturing market infrastructure, and macroeconomic factors such as interest rate fluctuations and capital flows to artificial intelligence. By contrast, the three bear markets triggered by major industry events in 2014-2015, 2018-2019, and 2022-2023 all saw maximum declines ranging from 76.7% to 83.6%. CoinGecko notes that historical data shows Bitcoin typically takes 65 to 166 days to reclaim its 200-day SMA after confirming a temporary bottom. If the June 25 low holds, Bitcoin could retake the average as early as the end of August this year, though a longer recovery period is not ruled out.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has stated that Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) profit/loss ratio has fallen to its lowest level since the current bear market, indicating the market is entering a broader "capitulation" phase — the first time this indicator has sent such a signal during the ongoing correction. Darkfost pointed out that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss has reached a significant level; historically, this stage often corresponds to bear market bottom zones, presenting favorable allocation opportunities for long-term investors. The last time the indicator hit a similar low was in mid-2023, when Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $26,000. Another analyst, DurdenBTC, also noted that the UTXO bottom signal has been triggered. The indicator has successfully captured every market bottom since 2016, though actual bottom formation still requires time, and short-term market sentiment may remain subdued. Darkfost further added that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders is gradually turning negative, showing long-term holders are starting to capitulate, while the current correction is mainly driven by short-term holders transferring large volumes of Bitcoin to exchanges. On-chain analytics firm Swissblock believes Bitcoin has largely completed the first stage of its decline and is now in the bottom-building phase, with prices stabilizing but market momentum still weak. Additionally, risk aversion has risen amid U.S. weekend airstrikes on Iranian targets. Bitcoin briefly fell to $59,800 before rebounding to around $60,100.

Tether is putting its approximately $23 billion in gold reserves to further use, partnering with crypto lending platform Ledn to expand use cases for its tokenized gold product Tether Gold (XAUT). Ledn has announced support for XAUT and plans to launch XAUT-collateralized lending services later this year, joining its existing offerings of Bitcoin and USDT-backed loans. Per available details, each XAUT token is backed by one troy ounce of physical gold stored in Swiss vaults. Tether states it holds around $23 billion in gold reserves, providing 1:1 backing for XAUT. Going forward, users will be able to access liquidity without selling their gold assets by collateralizing XAUT, a model similar to Bitcoin-backed lending. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino noted that as digital assets grow in importance to the global economy, market demand for financial instruments balancing long-term holdings and capital flexibility continues to rise. In recent years, Tether has leveraged profits from USDT to expand its business footprint, now holding approximately 140 tons of physical gold, investing in precious metals trading platform Gold.com, and partnering with crypto finance firm Antalpha to advance XAUT’s applications in lending and physical redemption. Additionally, Tether has expanded into multiple sectors including Bitcoin mining, renewable energy, AI infrastructure, and computing power.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, renowned NFT collector Machi Big Brother recently allegedly sold Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) NFTs to fund his long ETH position on Hyperliquid. Data shows that over the past month, Machi has sold a total of 34 BAYC NFTs, raising 326 ETH (approximately $514,000), but incurring a total loss of 399 ETH (about $631,000). Bored Ape #6057 was his most loss-making transaction: the NFT was purchased four years ago for 76.84 ETH, and recently sold for only 7.65 ETH, representing a roughly 90% loss. Meanwhile, Machi’s long ETH position on Hyperliquid has been liquidated multiple times recently. Lookonchain noted that he was liquidated again approximately 3 hours ago, leaving his account balance at around $81,000.