Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Analysis: Retail investors appear to be shifting funds from gold and Bitcoin to semiconductor stocks.

The Kobeissi Letter stated that retail investors appear to be shifting away from gold and Bitcoin toward semiconductor stocks. Data shows that since April, U.S. gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a combined net outflow of $12 billion; over the same timeframe, U.S. semiconductor ETFs have pulled in a total of $20 billion in inflows. This trend accelerated in mid-May, with outflows from gold and Bitcoin funds surging more than threefold, while inflows into semiconductor ETFs doubled. On the price front, GLD, the largest U.S. gold ETF, has declined 13% since early April, while IBIT, the largest Bitcoin ETF, has fallen 12% over the same period. By contrast, semiconductor ETFs SOXX and SMH have gained 81% and 60% respectively. Retail investors are driving the market in an unprecedented manner.

The probability that Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 this year has risen to 63%.

Prediction market platform Polymarket has seen the probability of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 this year rise to 63%, up from 51% as of June 16. Separately, the odds of Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 stand at 30%, while the probability of it climbing to $70,000 is 67%.

The probability that Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 this year has risen to 63%.

Prediction market platform Polymarket now puts the probability of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 this year at 63%, up from 51% as of June 16. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 is 30%, while the chance of it rising to $70,000 stands at 67%.

Strategy’s mNAV falls below 1, its market valuation is now lower than the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Strategy (MSTR) has seen its modified net asset value (mNAV) fall below 1, indicating the market is currently valuing the company at less than the worth of its Bitcoin holdings. This is unusual for Michael Saylor-led Strategy. For years, investors have priced Strategy at a premium to its Bitcoin reserves, giving the company flexible access to capital when needed—a advantage Saylor and his team have leveraged heavily. Currently, Strategy’s share price has dropped to around $82, roughly 85% lower than its November 2024 all-time high, bringing its enterprise value to approximately $50.4 billion. Meanwhile, with Bitcoin trading at about $60,000, the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings stands at roughly $51.1 billion. That means the market is now valuing the entire company at less than the value of its Bitcoin assets. At this valuation level, issuing new shares would be dilutive for Strategy, as the company would effectively sell equity at a discount to its underlying asset value. While this does not bar Strategy from continuing to issue new shares, raising capital at current valuations could spark more criticism. The firm’s recent Bitcoin purchases have already diluted common shareholders and drawn community backlash. Market concerns have grown that Strategy is increasingly resembling a closed-end fund rather than an operating company. Such vehicles typically trade at a premium to their underlying Bitcoin holdings when demand is strong, but can trade at persistent discounts once investor sentiment weakens. However, unlike traditional closed-end trusts, Strategy still retains multiple tools: issuing debt or equity when it is accretive, redeeming or refinancing securities, generating operating cash flow through its software business, and actively managing its capital structure.

Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for 40 consecutive days, with purchasing power in the U.S. market remaining sluggish.

According to Coinglass data, Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has remained in negative premium for 40 consecutive days, currently standing at -0.1569%, reflecting sustained weak purchasing power in the U.S. market. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the gap between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and the global average market price. A negative premium typically signals heavy selling pressure in the U.S. market, declining investor risk appetite, rising market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.7873 billion.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a combined net outflow of $1.7873 billion this week. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net outflow of $1.3035 billion, Fidelity’s FBTC recorded a net outflow of $314.9 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC had a net outflow of $135.3 million. Meanwhile, some ETFs registered net inflows: BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $71.7 million, and MSBT posted a net inflow of $26.2 million.

Billionaire Jeremy Grantham: Bitcoin won’t suddenly go to zero, but will quietly fade away.

According to CNBC, billionaire investor and GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham has once again criticized bitcoin, labeling it a "useless speculative" asset with no intrinsic value, and predicting it will gradually become irrelevant over the next several years or even decades. Grantham said, "It will die out, not with a bang, but quietly." He noted that bitcoin is not a stable form of value, having halved for no clear reason even in a strong economic environment, making it unreliable as a store of value. Grantham also pointed out that gold, even after retreating from its highs over the same period, has still posted solid gains. He added that bitcoin has neither proven itself as a useful speculative asset nor delivered real-world utility. "People don't use bitcoin for serious transactions, nor do they use it to pay for dinner or supermarket groceries; its role is to let criminals transfer funds," he stated. Bitcoin has long been known for severe bear market drawdowns, having dropped at least 70% from its peak in every cycle. Currently, bitcoin is down roughly 52% from its October high, hovering around $60,000, and many investors believe the current price slump could persist for several more months.

Should Bitcoin surge past $62,000, total short liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will hit $915 million.

According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin breaks through $62,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will hit $915 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin drops below $59,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $697 million. BlockBeats Note: The liquidation chart does not show the exact number of pending liquidation contracts or the precise value of liquidated contracts. The bars on the chart instead represent the relative importance of each liquidation cluster compared to adjacent clusters—i.e., their intensity. As such, the chart illustrates how severely a given price level for the underlying asset will be impacted. A higher "liquidation bar" signals that once the price hits that level, it will trigger a more pronounced reaction driven by liquidity waves.

Cathie Wood: AI has attracted massive investment interest, but cannot replace Bitcoin’s wealth-preservation attributes.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated in a post that capital outflows from more globally unstable countries will further drive up Bitcoin and other digital assets. AI has kicked off a technological revolution and rightfully deserves massive attention from the investment world. However, she argues that AI cannot serve as an insurance tool for wealth preservation, which is exactly what many people around the globe are currently seeking.

Ripple CEO: Still bullish on Bitcoin, but Strategy's preferred stock financing model has harmed the crypto market.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse told CNBC in an interview that he remains bullish on Bitcoin, but believes Strategy’s model of buying Bitcoin via preferred stock financing has harmed the crypto market. “Financial engineering does not drive long-term value,” Garlinghouse said, adding that the long-term value of any digital asset comes from its utility. He also noted, “Michael Saylor’s team hasn’t focused on the right things, which is hurting the overall market.” Garlinghouse’s criticism centers on the financing mechanism Strategy uses to accumulate Bitcoin. Over the past year, Strategy has raised funds by issuing preferred stock to continue purchasing Bitcoin. Its STRC stock carries an 11.5% annual dividend yield and was designed to trade near $100. Garlinghouse pointed out that STRC is currently about 25% below that level, calling it a “harsh rejection” of the strategy. STRC hit an all-time low on Thursday, dipping roughly 26% below its face value at one point. Meanwhile, Strategy’s common shares fell to their lowest since February 2024, closing at around $82 on Friday; Bitcoin, meanwhile, dropped below $59,000. This week, Strategy’s financing model has faced more pressure. CryptoQuant advised Strategy to pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild cash reserves. STRC’s dividend coverage period has shrunk from over 7 years to roughly 14 months. When STRC falls below $100, the mechanism where the company issues stock to buy Bitcoin stalls, which is why the firm suspended that mechanism. Mark Palmer, an analyst at Benchmark-StoneX, argued that Strategy’s financing engine has merely become “less efficient” rather than failed entirely, and pushed back against comparing STRC to assets that have collapsed completely.

Analyst: Bitcoin is forming a bottom, suggesting a favorable entry opportunity at this time.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts said in a post that Bitcoin chart signals indicate a market bottom is forming, and the current period may be one of the better long-term entry windows over the past decade. Over the last 10 years, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) has served as a critical benchmark for identifying Bitcoin cycle bottoms. Historically, whenever Bitcoin has touched or fallen below this MA, it has typically opened a macro accumulation window. He cited examples: Bitcoin hit the 200-week SMA in August 2015, triggering a bull run that pushed its price up over 8,500%; it tested the MA in December 2018 before rallying 267%; during the March 2020 liquidity crunch, Bitcoin validated the 200-week SMA as support, then surged 1,125%; and in June 2022, Bitcoin broke below the MA for the first time, consolidated under it until December 2022, and once it reclaimed the level, it rallied 680%. Currently, Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA stands at $63,500, while the cryptocurrency trades at roughly $60,000, slightly below that level. Based on a decade of market history, he views this as a key accumulation zone for long-term investors. He also noted Bitcoin could still dip further to $54,000, or even $40,000. As such, he recommends dollar-cost averaging into positions across the $58,000 to $40,000 range to build exposure in the technically discounted area. The $63,500 level is a critical watchpoint: once Bitcoin reclaims the 200-week SMA on the higher time frame and confirms it as macro support, history shows this typically marks the early stages of a new bull market.

Agent of the "BTC OG Insider Whale" shorts ZEC again; his long Bitcoin position is sitting on an unrealized loss of over $20 million.

According to Yujin Monitoring, Garrett Jin, the agent of the so-called "BTC OG insider whale", placed a ZEC short order worth $21.73 million at $418.9 half an hour ago. So far, $4.93 million of the order has been filled, with $16.8 million worth of positions still pending execution. Once fully filled, he will become the largest ZEC holder on Hyperliquid. Separately, his 1,270 BTC long position opened at $76,117 (valued at $96.54 million) is currently sitting on an unrealized loss of $20.15 million.

A former Google technology executive has sold all his Bitcoin holdings and claimed to have suffered huge financial losses.

Former technical lead for Google’s YouTube App architecture Patrick Shyu tweeted that he has sold all his Bitcoin and suffered massive financial losses. Shyu noted that Bitcoin has dropped 50% from 120,000 yuan last October to just over 60,000 yuan this summer, adding that no preparation can cushion the psychological impact of such market movements—especially when using leverage... "My leverage ratio was too high. A tiny mistake led to devastating consequences," he said.

Bitcoin falls below $59,000, with a 3.7% drop in 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dipped below $59,000, with a 3.7% decline in the past 24 hours.

A crypto whale sold 464 Bitcoin to rebalance its holdings into 17,750 ETH, valued at $27.56 million.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, a whale sold 464 Bitcoin to rebalance its portfolio and purchased 17,750 ETH worth $27.56 million two hours ago.

A crypto whale offloaded 464 Bitcoin to rebalance its portfolio into 17,750 ETH, valued at $27.56 million.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, a whale sold 464 Bitcoin and reallocated its holdings to purchase 17,750 Ethereum approximately two hours ago, with the transaction valued at $27.56 million.

Crypto derivatives see long-short divergence: Bitcoin (BTC) open interest climbs as traders eye adding short positions, while Ethereum (ETH) open interest stabilizes with no panic selling observed.

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto derivatives market has seen massive liquidations, with total liquidation volume hitting around $1 billion, and Ethereum’s liquidations exceeding Bitcoin’s. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s futures open interest rose for the second consecutive day to 778,000 BTC; the sharp increase in open interest late Thursday indicates Bitcoin traders are adding short positions amid the downtrend. In contrast, Ethereum’s futures open interest has stabilized around 14 million ETH since June 15, with Ethereum traders not actively adding short positions during the decline. The open-interest-adjusted 24-hour cumulative trading volume differential shows that short positions continue to dominate among the top 25 crypto tokens, with only BNB, SOL, and TON as exceptions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized implied volatility index jumped to 53%, its highest level since June 7; Ethereum’s volatility index rose to 66%. In the crypto options market, Bitcoin option skew neared 30% last week, with a notable put premium; large trades have seen put options with a $53,000 strike price expiring on July 10, reflecting strong demand for downside hedging.

A crypto whale has opened a 40x short position on Bitcoin and a 10x short position on SPCX, with a total position value of $73.76 million.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a crypto whale has opened a combined short position valued at $73.76 million: 1002.5 BTC (40x leverage) and 89,695.7 SPCX (10x leverage). BTC’s liquidation price is $62,071.8, and SPCX’s liquidation price is $162.79.

Michael Saylor: Market volatility will test all capital structures; Strategy will continue to focus on Bitcoin

Strategy founder Michael Saylor said market volatility tests all capital structures, but the company will stay focused on Bitcoin, prudent capital allocation, credit quality, and long-term value creation. He thanked investors for their support, noting that the firm will continue executing its strategy transparently and resolutely. Recently, Strategy’s share price and preferred shares have been under sustained pressure.

Billionaire Grant Cardone: Will Continue to Dollar-Cost Average Bitcoin Using Real Estate Cash Flow

US real estate investment firm Cardone Capital CEO Grant Cardone tweeted that he has long advocated combining Bitcoin with physical assets, using cash flow generated from these assets to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin amid its volatility. "We are committed to boosting real estate cash flow and buying more Bitcoin when it drops," he said. Cardone added that Cardone Capital’s Bitcoin hybrid model draws inspiration from treasury firms, but is backed by real assets and actual cash flow, making it the world’s largest real estate-Bitcoin hybrid company, with no institutional investors impacting its value proposition. The firm established its Bitcoin treasury in April last year and has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings since.

Billionaire Grant Cardone: Will Continue Regularly Investing in Bitcoin Using Real Estate Cash Flow

US real estate investment firm Cardone Capital CEO Grant Cardone tweeted that he has long advocated combining Bitcoin with physical assets, using cash flow generated from those assets to make dollar-cost averaging investments in Bitcoin amid its volatility. "We are committed to boosting real estate cash flow and buying more Bitcoin when it falls," he stated. Cardone added that Cardone Capital’s Bitcoin hybrid model is inspired by treasury firms, but backed by real assets and actual cash flow, making it the world’s largest real estate-Bitcoin hybrid company, with no institutional investors influencing its value proposition. The firm has built its Bitcoin treasury since April last year and has continued to increase its holdings ever since.

CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin May Not Yet Be Close to the Bear Market Bottom

Crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that it is not yet possible to confirm Bitcoin has reached the bottom of its current cycle. Based on his analysis of log-scale charts, Bitcoin’s current price does not appear close to the bottom region following traditional cycle patterns. He added that as prices approach investors’ cost bases, the risk-reward ratio typically improves significantly; in all past major cycles, Bitcoin’s price has touched its realized price. If this cycle fails to see this, it could signal a different market structure from previous ones.

Bitcoin's apparent demand has remained negative for 208 consecutive days.

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin's apparent demand has remained negative for 208 consecutive days, recently falling to -273,000 BTC, indicating its accumulation phase has stalled for seven months. The apparent demand metric gauges actual spot demand by comparing newly issued Bitcoin from miners to flows of existing inventory; a negative value means older coin supply is entering the market faster than buying absorption. When apparent demand is negative, it signals a large volume of old supply is entering circulation at a quicker rate than the spot market can absorb. This mismatch shows selling pressure exceeds new capital inflows, creating heavy upside resistance for Bitcoin's price.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $691.7 million, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posted a net outflow of $81.9 million.

According to Farside's monitoring data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net outflow of $691.7 million yesterday, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $81.9 million.

Since MicroStrategy first started selling its bitcoin holdings, MSTR has nearly halved, generating an unrealized profit of $1.32 million for a whale that shorted at the peak.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, MicroStrategy (MSTR), the Bitcoin treasury proxy stock, remains under persistent pressure. Since the company’s first Bitcoin reduction in years (it sold 32 BTC at the end of May to cover preferred stock dividends), MSTR has fallen 48% cumulatively, dropping another 13.8% in the past 24 hours. It is currently trading at $82 on Hyperliquid, hitting a two-year low and leading declines in the HIP-3 market. The unrealized loss on the company’s Bitcoin holdings exceeds $13 billion. Across on-chain addresses, total short positions stand at ~$5.55 million, long positions at ~$5.86 million, with a short-to-long nominal ratio of ~0.95. In terms of entry costs, the average long position is ~$97.24, while the average short position is ~$103.31. The current price of $84 has fallen below the long average, pushing most longs into losses. The nearest long liquidation line is at $76.25, roughly 9.3% below the current price. One high-level short position opened at $130.65 with 10x leverage, holding $2.4 million in positions and boasting an unrealized profit of $1.32 million. Three new short positions have entered amid today’s sell-off. Address: 0x3dc908374e11623d8eb9f07dfc7a2e5e803a54b0 – HyperInsight Bot is now live. Add @HyperInsightBot to your TG group and set it as an admin (enable message-sending permissions) to automatically sync on-chain updates.

Bitcoin once again fell below $59,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped below $59,000 again, with a 3.27% decline in the past 24 hours.

Ansem: Pessimism Hits Extreme Levels, Entering Bitcoin Now Is a Favorable Trading Opportunity

Crypto KOL Ansem has published a post reaffirming Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis, stating that despite his previous bearish stance, the current price level presents a strong buying opportunity. He noted that Bitcoin’s core narrative as the “hardest currency” remains intact: it cannot be seized by governments, enables instant cross-border transfers, and is insulated from the long-term depreciation of the U.S. dollar, making it an ideal vehicle for long-term wealth storage. Between 2024 and 2025, gold outperforming Bitcoin temporarily dented the “digital gold” narrative, but he believes market confidence will rebound once price momentum picks up. On the macro front, Ansem argues that with the Strait of Hormuz reopening and inflation pressures set to ease, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance may have peaked, at which point the Fed and Washington policymakers will have room to cut rates rather than continue hiking. A strong U.S. dollar and rising interest rates have weighed on gold, but if capital from profit-taking in AI stocks flows into real estate, cash, and long-term value storage assets, both gold and Bitcoin will benefit. Institutional investors like Paul Tudor Jones still hold interest in Bitcoin. Earlier, Ansem admitted he was bearish on Bitcoin due to risks in the holdings of Saylor, founder of Strategy, and had previously thought $60,000 would be hard to defend, but he noted he is now reacting to buy-side entry signals. He pointed out that current price action is already pricing in the worst-case scenario of Saylor being forced to sell, and even if he does need to offload, it would not happen for at least six months. He concluded that Bitcoin is currently at the intersection of its long-term historical support levels and what he describes as the most pessimistic market sentiment he has ever seen, making entry in early Q3 a notable trading opportunity.

STRC’s correlation with Bitcoin hits an all-time high, weakening its stable income attribute.

Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock STRC (Stretch) has seen its 90-day correlation coefficient with Bitcoin rise to nearly 0.70, a record high since its launch in July 2025, indicating its price movement is increasingly closely tracking Bitcoin’s fluctuations and eroding its appeal as a relatively stable income-generating product. Data shows STRC has dropped 23% this month to $76, while Bitcoin fell nearly 20% over the same period, breaking below $60,000. STRC has a par value of $100 and adopts a floating dividend mechanism, with its current annualized dividend yield standing at 11.5%. The company originally aimed to maintain its share price close to par to continuously raise funds through additional issuances to buy more Bitcoin. However, since STRC is currently trading at a significant discount to par, Strategy’s ability to raise funds through new issuances for Bitcoin purchases is limited. Meanwhile, the company has recently sold a small portion of its Bitcoin to pay dividends, a stark contrast to its long-held "never sell Bitcoin" strategy. Market views are divided: some investors believe STRC’s current discount offers an investment opportunity combining high yields and potential capital appreciation; others worry that if the downturn persists, it may weaken Strategy’s financing capacity and impact its model of continuously increasing Bitcoin holdings via capital markets.

Bitcoin rebounds to surpass $60,000, with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 1.31%

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin rebounded this morning to break through the $60,000 mark, with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 1.31% and currently trading at $60,104. The cryptocurrency once dipped to near the $58,000 level last night, and market panic has since eased slightly.

Analyst: Bitcoin falls below $60,000, but institutions and whales are not continuing to bet on further declines.

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on X: "Tomorrow is the quarterly expiry, and Bitcoin has dipped below $60,000. As seen in the GEX chart, $60,000 is clearly the highest open interest price point. Meanwhile, large positions are also starting to accumulate at $58,000 and $59,000, signaling rising market risk. Institutional investors and major holders have not continued to bet on a downward move; they are just waiting for the expiry."

A crypto whale allocated $8 million to Hyperliquid to open a 20x leveraged long position on Bitcoin.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a crypto whale has allegedly created two new addresses and allocated $8 million to Hyperliquid via these addresses to open a 20x leveraged long position on 400 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $23.5 million.

CryptoQuant Head of Research: Strategy Should Suspend Bitcoin Purchases to Rebuild Cash Reserves

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has advised Strategy to suspend Bitcoin purchases and prioritize rebuilding its cash reserves to enhance financial flexibility. Moreno noted that Strategy’s cash reserves have dropped by 38% this year, its annual dividend obligations have risen to around $1.2 billion, its dividend coverage period has shrunk from multiple years to just 14 months, and it faces $10.6 billion in unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin rebounds after flash crash, breaks through $60,000, surging over 3% in the past hour.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin saw a 4.8% flash crash tonight before a sustained rebound, breaking through the $60,000 level to currently trade at $60,004.00, with gains exceeding 3% in the past hour.

Agent of 'BTC OG Insider Whale' Incurs $21.12 Million Unrealized Loss on 5x Bitcoin Long Position

On-chain analyst Ai Yi (Twitter handle @ai_9684xtpa) monitored that Garrett Jin, the agent of the so-called "BTC OG insider whale", holds a 5x long Bitcoin position with an unrealized loss of $21.12 million. The entry price of Garrett Jin’s 1268.33 BTC long position is $76,117, with a mark price of $59,466 and a liquidation price of $16,962.

A crypto whale’s entire long positions in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP) were fully liquidated, resulting in losses of approximately $8.42 million.

Per Lookonchain monitoring, a whale with an address starting with 0xf79C had all its long positions liquidated: 809.9 BTC (worth around $47.68 million) and 27.92 million XRP (valued at approximately $28.45 million), incurring losses of roughly $8.42 million.

Bitcoin's Ahr999 bottom-fishing indicator has once again fallen below the key threshold of 0.3, approaching the low it hit on February 6.

Based on real-time data, with Bitcoin’s current price at $59,291 and its 200-day dollar-cost average (C200) at $75,821, Bitcoin’s Ahr999 "bottom-fishing" indicator stands at 0.285. The year’s previous low was 0.27 on February 6. Statistics show that an Ahr999 reading below 0.3 is a rare sign of extreme undervaluation, typically occurring during major market crashes or panic events. Historically, the indicator has fallen below 0.3 on several key occasions: November 2011, when Bitcoin’s price was in the single digits and had not yet gained widespread mainstream acceptance; the bottom of the 2018 bear market (low of around 0.24); the March 2020 "3.16 Flash Crash" (driven by COVID-19 panic); the June 2022 ETH liquidation crash and November 2022 FTX collapse, when it repeatedly hit around 0.27; and February 2026, when it touched 0.27-0.29, near historical lows. BlockBeats Note: This indicator helps Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging (DCA) users make investment decisions by combining timing strategies. It reflects Bitcoin’s short-term DCA returns and the deviation between its price and expected valuation. In Bitcoin’s history, the Ahr999 index has stayed below the bottom line (0.45) for 655 days.

Bitcoin rebounds after a 4.8% flash crash, with $560 million in network-wide liquidations within one hour.

Affected by the US stock market's opening surge and subsequent decline, Bitcoin plunged 4.8% in a flash over the past hour. As of press time, the cryptocurrency has temporarily rebounded to $59,308.38. However, during the flash crash, a total of 5 contract orders worth over $10 million were liquidated across the network, with global liquidations hitting $560 million in the past hour.

Bitcoin fell below $59,000, shedding nearly 4% overall after US stock markets opened.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $59,000, dropping nearly 4% since the U.S. stock market opened, and is currently trading at $58,894.23.

Bitcoin once again fell below $60,000, dropping more than 2% in the past hour.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin once again fell below $60,000 after the US stock market opened, dropping over 2% in the past hour and currently trading at $59,757.99. Separately, Coinglass data shows that $102 million in liquidations occurred across the crypto network in the past hour, with long positions accounting for the majority of liquidations.

Crypto assets were sold off again after US stock markets opened, with Bitcoin dropping below $61,000 intraday.

Per HTX market data, major cryptocurrencies have accelerated their decline again after US stock markets opened. Bitcoin dropped below $61,000 intraday and is now trading at $60,738.89. MicroStrategy (MSTR) also fell in lockstep, down 3.33% after opening, at $90.67.

PlanB: Bitcoin is very likely to actually bottom out after falling below $53,000.

Renowned crypto analyst PlanB stated that Bitcoin will likely fall below its realized price (around $53,000) before hitting a genuine bottom, just as it did in every previous bear market. Currently, the curve representing the realized price has nearly overlapped with the black curve denoting the 200-week geometric moving average since 2023.

The crypto market is under pressure due to intensified tech stock sell-offs, with Bitcoin once hitting its lowest level since October 2024.

According to a report by the Financial Times, driven by intensified sell-offs in tech stocks, Bitcoin has plunged to a 20-month low as market risk sentiment continues to weaken. Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, with an intraday drop of up to 5.4%, hitting its lowest level since October 2024. Over the past two years, traders have viewed $60,000 as a key support level. This sell-off follows widespread selling of large-cap tech stocks this week. Traders are betting the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates to tackle inflation; higher rates are likely to suppress risk appetite, prompting investors to re-evaluate overvalued assets and shift toward relatively safe assets. In recent years, crypto assets have been highly correlated with stock market moves, but this relationship is now under strain. Bitcoin and Solana have fallen 32% and 47% respectively this year, with no significant recovery even amid stock market rebounds. Part of the reason is declining retail investor demand for crypto, as they turn to chasing volatility in AI-related stocks. Gerry O’Shea, Head of Global Market Insights at crypto asset management firm Hashdex, noted that with large IPOs and AI stocks dominating the market, sentiment remains weak. Analysts currently do not see major catalysts for the crypto market. U.S. capital markets are still digesting SpaceX’s world’s largest IPO, which listed on Nasdaq earlier this month, with AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic expected to follow. Meanwhile, the U.S. digital asset regulatory bill Clarity Act remains stalled in the Senate. The bill faces strong opposition from the banking sector and has not yet secured enough bipartisan support.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $469 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $30.3 million.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $469 million yesterday. Among this, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net outflow of $239.3 million, while FBTC posted a net outflow of $120.8 million. In the same period, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had a total net outflow of $30.3 million. Of that, BlackRock’s ETHA recorded a net outflow of $8.1 million, and FETH saw a net outflow of $15.7 million.

Strategy’s unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings have widened to $12.6 billion.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped 3.13% over the past 24 hours, currently trading at $60,775. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are currently facing an unrealized loss of 19.7%, amounting to roughly $12.6 billion. As of June 21, Strategy holds a total of 847,363 Bitcoins, with a total cost of $64.1 billion and an average holding cost of $75,651 per Bitcoin.

Jiang Zhuoer: This round of Bitcoin bear market may bottom out in Q4 2026, with a target range of $42,000 to $44,000.

BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer wrote in a post that Strategy’s modified net asset value (mNAV) has fallen to 0.72, near the 0.7 low hit in May 2022 during the last bear market. Citing recent market sentiment events including STRC’s depegging, he noted that mNAV is now in the bottom zone of this cycle. mNAV usually bottoms roughly six months before Bitcoin’s price. Using the "four-year cycle" and volatility decay model, Jiang projected that this Bitcoin bear market will likely bottom between October and December 2026, with a target price range of $42,000 to $44,000. He added that his recent medium-short term strategy remains focused on selling spot assets and holding short positions, and will switch to buying spot and going long once the expected bottom arrives.

James Wynn closed out his 40x Bitcoin short position, netting $30,000 in profits, and shifted to opening a 50x S&P 500 short position.

According to monitoring by OnchainLens, James Wynn has liquidated his 40x leveraged Bitcoin (BTC) short position, pocketing roughly $30,000 in profit. He subsequently opened a new 50x leveraged S&P 500 (SP500) short position at a price of 334.42, betting on a future decline in the US stock market.

Analysis: Bitcoin miners face profit pressure, with around 20% of mining firms now operating below the break-even point.

Bitcoin miners' revenue continues to decline, with the current 7-day average daily income dropping to around $30 million, a notable pullback from the over $50 million level seen last summer. Meanwhile, on-chain transaction fee revenue has fallen to less than $250,000, accounting for an extremely small share of miners' total income. Data from JPMorgan Chase shows the average production cost is approximately $78,000, and Bitcoin’s price has remained below this level for five consecutive months — the longest such stretch in the current cycle. An estimated 20% of miners are already operating at a loss; some high-cost miners have begun frequently powering their mining rigs on and off in response to price fluctuations, leading to a stronger correlation between network hash rate difficulty and Bitcoin’s price. Additionally, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty was adjusted down by roughly 10% in the second week of June, marking the second pullback of the same magnitude this year. Publicly listed mining companies, meanwhile, are relying more on their balance sheets to sustain operations, selling over 32,000 BTC in the first quarter alone to cover operating costs. Analysts note that against the backdrop of continuously shrinking block subsidies and stagnant fee revenue, a recovery in miners’ profits will primarily depend on a rise in Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin falls below $60,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000, with a 4.3% drop in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin falls below the bottom of the Rainbow Chart, entering the "Bitcoin Is Dead" zone.

Bitcoin has fallen below the lower range of the long-popular valuation model, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, marking only the second time in history it has dipped into the purple zone labeled "Bitcoin is Dead" in the original framework. Developed by Reddit user Azop in 2014, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart uses logarithmic growth curves to track Bitcoin’s long-term price trends, with distinct color zones corresponding to different market sentiment phases. Some Bitcoin holders view the current plunge into this zone as a key buying opportunity, drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s 2022 drop to around $15,000, which later formed the cycle’s bottom. However, analysts are divided on this signal. Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, said the price’s first break below a range that has held for over a decade signals a structural shift in the model. He does not believe this means Bitcoin is dead; instead, he argues the Rainbow Chart has become invalid. Emad Shahin, COO of Ethra, noted that the Rainbow Chart acts more as a sentiment indicator than a predictive tool. Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining, added that the "Bitcoin is Dead" zone does not actually mean Bitcoin is defunct—historically, it typically reflects extreme panic and undervaluation, often followed by a recovery. As institutional investors, ETF flows, derivatives activity, and macro factors carry increasing weight in Bitcoin pricing, the validity of relying solely on historical valuation models is waning. Lee stated that Bitcoin’s current position at the Rainbow Chart’s lower levels points to weak market sentiment, but does not guarantee another sharp new low. If risk appetite deteriorates further, Bitcoin still cannot rule out a drop to the $50,000 range.

Bitcoin fell below $61,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $61,000, with a 2.85% decline in the past 24 hours.