Grayscale: Bitcoin bear market has two evolution paths, still bullish on crypto assets in the long term.

According to Grayscale’s latest research report, Bitcoin has pulled back more than 50% from its October 2025 peak of roughly $125,000, dropping below $60,000. The report frames this decline as a cyclical correction within Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend, not a reversal of its long-term trajectory. Grayscale notes that Bitcoin’s recent downward pressure stems from multiple factors: expectations of a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy, uncertainty over the legislative prospects of the CLARITY Act, balance sheet strains at crypto firm Strategy, and investor concerns about potential security risks from quantum computing. Notably, after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated hawkish Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, markets have shifted from pricing in interest rate cuts to expecting hikes this year—undermining Bitcoin’s investment thesis as an asset hedging against currency devaluation. Two core scenarios shape Bitcoin’s outlook: In the baseline case, if the CLARITY Act passes the Senate smoothly, Strategy improves its balance sheet, and the Fed pauses rate hikes, Bitcoin may have neared the bottom of this cycle. In the pessimistic scenario, if the bill fails to pass this year, digital asset firms continue deleveraging, and stubborn inflation forces the Fed to raise rates, Bitcoin prices could fall further. Still, given this bull run has been relatively moderate and institutional demand is more solid, this pullback is not expected to replicate the roughly 80% peak-to-trough decline seen in historical cycles. Grayscale added that it remains bullish on the long-term growth prospects of public blockchains and digital assets over the next decade.