BTC Q4 Outlook: Cycle Tops, Key Levels, and Whats Next

BTC, Q4 and Cycle Tops

i took the weekend off and i'm now back with a fresh analysis of what i think is in store for the next 3 months

BTC

i drew this fractal last month and surprisingly, it's been working to the T (till now)

if we did what we did back in march - april, we should bounce somewhere around these 2 magic lines called 1D EMA200 & 1D MA200 and resume ze pump in october

now, fractals are only as good as they look but this also coincides with our early september low around 107k and a sweep n reclaim of it would be quite bullish and would set the stage for Q4

but..what if we already bottomed last week?

well, a reclaim of 112k would pave the way for 117.5k and reclaiming that level would be omega bullish imo and if/when we do that, we probably make a new all-time high above 125k

118.8k - 112k is pivot so, if you're day trading, keep an eye on this level

Q4

october - december has always been an interesting time in crypto ~ almost all the major tops/bottoms have happened this time around only so, it makes sense for us to repeat the same, no?

to be honest, i dont know if we will top this Q4 or not but one thing i'm pretty sure of is, if we get a new ATH for BTC and majors, i would be taking the majority of my gains off the table

why?

because that's been my plan since the beginning of the cycle

plan the trade <> trade the plan

Cycle Tops

there's a lot of chatter going around whether we have topped or not but personally speaking, i think we have one more leg up in the next few months

i'm a big believer of 4-year cycles simply because it's been working for years, so, if we have topped before, maybe this time is indeed different but only time will tell that so..

you see, the issue here is, nobody 100% knows what's gonna happen and you can only "predict" by placing your bets, so i'd suggest developing a plan for both the scenarios

for me, my bull cycle invalidation is a weekly close below 1W MA50 because every time we have closed this line, it's the start of a bear market and since, it's been working quite nicely for the past few years, i'm gonna stick to this

tl;dr

- no cycle top yet
- higher price in Q4
- invalidation is 1W MA50