Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

A crypto whale has increased its long position in Bitcoin (BTC) to 1,660 BTC, worth approximately $107.36 million.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, whale 0x66f8 has been continuously going long on Bitcoin (BTC), with its long position now expanded to 1,660 BTC, valued at approximately $107.36 million, and a liquidation price of $63,123.

Analyst: Bitcoin bear market may be nearing its end, short-term holders' cost has dropped to $69,000.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that Bitcoin’s bear market has lasted roughly 9 months, affecting both short-term and long-term holders. The cost basis of short-term holders has fallen below that of long-term holders, a trend confirmed over three days, triggering a "bear market nearing its end" signal. This metric excludes BTC held for more than seven years when calculating long-term holders’ cost basis, to more accurately reflect economically active long-term positions. Darkfost stressed that this signal does not mean the bear market will end immediately or that the market bottom is already locked in; instead, it signals the market may be entering the final phase of the bear market, during which a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy is likely more rational. He noted that if short-term holders’ cost basis later rises back above long-term holders’ cost basis, this will mark a confirmation of the start of a bull market, serving as a reference to end DCA. Currently, short-term holders’ cost basis has dropped from $112,500 to $69,000.

Bitcoin has a 74% probability of rising to $70,000 this year.

Prediction market platform Polymarket puts the probability of Bitcoin rising to $70,000 this year at 74%. It also assigns a 34% chance of Bitcoin hitting $80,000, and a 17% probability of it reaching $90,000.

Michael Saylor: Enterprise adoption is essential for Bitcoin to become a global monetary network.

Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, stated in a post that the corporate organizational structure allows people to collaborate around a shared mission within a legal framework, while operating with higher efficiency, transparency, credibility, scale, resilience, and sustainability. For Bitcoin to become a global monetary network, corporate adoption is not only necessary, but also an inevitable and welcome development trend.

CryptoQuant: Retail investors continue to sell Bitcoin, while whales are absorbing the selling pressure.

According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin (BTC) demand fell further yesterday compared to the prior day, with negative demand driven mainly by the spot market as selling pressure persists. However, data shows that the volume of BTC flowing into "accumulation addresses" is rising, indicating that some sold-off tokens are being absorbed by long-term holders. The spot market has seen continuous capital outflows since November last year, but whale investors are absorbing these sell orders. Analysts believe that when Bitcoin's spot demand turns positive again, the market may see a strong rally.

Analysis: Strategy’s liquidity issues have improved, but a systematic framework for Bitcoin trading still needs to be established.

CryptoQuant Research Head Julio Moreno said Strategy’s newly launched digital credit capital framework has largely resolved the company’s short-term liquidity issues, though a more disciplined Bitcoin buy-and-sell mechanism still needs to be established. CryptoQuant noted that since the new framework was announced, Strategy has sold 3,588 BTC (worth approximately $216 million) to replenish its dollar reserves and raised $466.7 million by selling MSTR stock, lifting its dollar reserves from $1.44 billion to around $3 billion. The preferred dividend coverage period has also risen from roughly 14 months to 29 months. As of now, the company’s Bitcoin holdings remain unchanged at 843,775 BTC. However, CryptoQuant believes Strategy has yet to resolve two critical issues: First, when it will resume Bitcoin purchases, as the current framework only regulates financing methods and lacks a valuation-based systematic position-building model, leaving it at risk of repeating the “continuous high-price buying” scenario in the future. Second, how to sell a portion of its Bitcoin during the next bull market; the existing framework allows BTC sales to replenish reserves, pay dividends, and repurchase shares, but no long-term capital management strategy has been developed for phased position reduction or risk hedging at cyclical peaks. CryptoQuant stated that establishing trading discipline spanning bull and bear market cycles will be a core component of Strategy’s active capital management system.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $132.3 million, marking four consecutive trading days of inflows.

According to Farside’s monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $132.3 million yesterday, marking their fourth consecutive trading day of net inflows. Specifically, IBIT recorded a net inflow of $136.5 million, while FBTC posted a net outflow of $4.2 million.

A crypto whale has added 1001 BTC to its holdings once more; last year, it purchased over $290 million worth of Bitcoin via over-the-counter (OTC) trades.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a whale address that previously accumulated over $290 million worth of Bitcoin through Galaxy Digital last year has added to its holdings, receiving 1001 BTC valued at approximately $64 million. The relevant addresses include the main wallet bc1qexplq4mlp7umxavr2qceaqzc2w8fzc9enpty55 and its associated address 39aNzneDLY6oHifvRpxwXaeCPkP9gcZxNx.

Associated addresses linked to Lombard Finance have deposited 750 Bitcoin to Galaxy Digital, likely for an over-the-counter (OTC) transaction.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a wallet associated with Lombard Finance sent 750 BTC (approximately $47.8 million) to Galaxy Digital, likely related to an over-the-counter (OTC) transaction.

Bloomberg analysts: Bitcoin may replicate the trend following the launch of gold ETFs, undergoing a "painful pullback" and a "patience-testing recovery"

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said Bitcoin ETFs are likely to follow gold’s volatility trajectory, experiencing "stunning rallies" and "painful pullbacks" that will test investors’ patience. Balchunas noted that both gold and Bitcoin are non-yield-bearing stores of value that generate no cash flow. Their demand, driven by market sentiment, can lead to both "price surges" and prolonged stagnation. As such, Bitcoin ETFs may follow the same playbook: stunning gains, painful pullbacks, and a recovery that could test investors’ patience.

Following the opening of US stock markets, Bitcoin and Ethereum accelerated their downward trend; 'Maji' rapidly cut positions to avoid liquidation.

Per HTX market data, Bitcoin and Ethereum accelerated their declines after today’s US stock market opened. As of press time, Bitcoin trades at $62,554.81, down 0.84% over the past hour. Ethereum is holding just above the $1,800 level, currently at $1,810.62. In response, "Maji" has sharply cut its Ethereum long positions in the past hour. HyperInsight monitoring shows its 25x leveraged Ethereum long positions have been reduced to 3,500 coins, valued at $6.338 million, with the long positions’ liquidation price also dropping to $1,795.49—less than 1% away from the current price.

A whale deposited $17 million to open 10x long positions in Bitcoin and Samsung stock contracts.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a crypto whale has just deposited $17 million into Hyperliquid to go long on Bitcoin and Samsung with 10x leverage. Its current positions are: 20 BTC (valued at approximately $1.26 million) and 7,600 SMSN shares (valued at roughly $1.2 million).

ARK Invest: Bitcoin’s decline diverges from whale accumulation, signaling a market cycle bottom.

ARK Invest released its Q2 2026 Bitcoin report, stating that Bitcoin fell approximately 14% in the second quarter, breaking below the short-term holder realized price, 200-day moving average, and on-chain average, with a still bearish technical outlook. However, the proportion of loss-making supply rose to around 54%, and the supply held by long-term holders hit a record high of roughly 14.85 million BTC, which ARK considers a potential signal of seller exhaustion. The report also pointed out that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back to its on-chain cost range of approximately $49,000 to $53,000, meaning downside risks have not been fully released. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of around 71,000 BTC in Q2, while Strategy’s STRC preferred shares dropped to a low of $74.57.

Glassnode: Bitcoin options market is firmly rebuilding bullish exposure

Glassnode released a market note stating that Bitcoin's options market has started to turn constructive. Implied volatility has dropped from 48 to 40, while the put/call ratio fell to a six-month low of 0.59. The data shows options traders are cutting downside hedges and rebuilding upside exposure, indicating market sentiment is gradually improving from the June panic, though volatility remains higher than May's lows. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating around $63,000, with a dense negative gamma zone between $68,000 and $70,000. A breakout above this range could trigger more procyclic dealer hedging and amplify volatility.

Peter Brandt: Bitcoin may bottom out at $40,000, while the Nasdaq index shows a suspected top pattern.

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt stated in a post today that the daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 Mini Futures (NQ) may be forming a "diamond" pattern, potentially marking a market top. Additionally, in a recent interview, Brandt predicted that Bitcoin could first rally by $10,000, then drop to a high of $40,000 before bottoming out in early October 2026. Drawing on Bitcoin’s historical cycle patterns, Brandt warned that the cryptocurrency could experience a false breakout; currently trading around $60,000, Bitcoin faces near-term downside risks. Brandt also emphasized his long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin, projecting its price could reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029.

Coinbase’s Bitcoin negative premium has persisted for 60 days, extending its all-time record.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained in negative premium territory for 60 consecutive days (since May 19), with its latest reading at -0.0908%. Earlier this year, the index notched 40 straight days of negative premium from January 16 to February 24, marking the longest consecutive negative streak since the metric’s launch—surpassing the roughly 30-day stretch of negative premium seen during the "1011 crash".

Bitcoin drops below $63,000, posting a 2.98% decline in 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $63,000, currently trading at $62,968.46, with a 2.98% drop in the past 24 hours.

Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $79.1 million, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $28 million.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a combined net inflow of $79.1 million yesterday. Of that total, BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $33.4 million, Fidelity’s FBTC $30.7 million, and Bitwise’s BITB $15 million, with no inflows reported for the remaining ETFs. For Ethereum ETFs, the segment saw a total net outflow of $28 million yesterday. Breakdowns: FETH had a net outflow of $11.2 million, ETHE $4.8 million, and ETH-related funds $14.3 million; ETHW logged a net inflow of $2.3 million, while BlackRock’s ETHA saw no inflows.

$1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire, while Ethereum (ETH) put positions have remained at high levels for a consecutive month.

Crypto analytics platform Greeks.live reported that on July 17, 19,000 BTC options expired, with a Put-Call Ratio (PCR) of 0.9, a max pain point of $63,000, and a nominal value of around $1.2 billion. Meanwhile, 123,000 ETH options expired, with a PCR of 1.61, a max pain point of $1,800, and a nominal value of roughly $230 million. In terms of market performance, BTC has continued to fluctuate above $60,000 this week, having traded in the $60,000 to $65,000 range for over a month. Sharp swings in U.S. equities (SpaceX and storage sectors) have not yet had a noticeable impact on the crypto market. Looking at options positions, around 5% of options expired this week, leading to a slight drop in overall open interest, mainly due to low market volatility and reduced trading opportunities. BTC’s Gamma Exposure (GEX) is mainly concentrated around $64,000 and $70,000. ETH’s GEX is primarily in the $1,825 to $2,000 range, with a relatively dispersed distribution. Some traders have started positioning for a rebound via slightly out-of-the-money options. The proportion of large bullish trades has continued to rise recently, dominated by short-term bull spread buying strategies. Notably, ETH’s Put-Call Ratio has stayed above 1 for a consecutive month, hitting 1.61 this week. The high proportion of put options outstanding reflects clear market divergence on ETH’s future outlook, with intensified bull-bear rivalry.

JPMorgan: Strategy’s increased cash reserves send a positive signal, and demand for Bitcoin futures has also improved.

JPMorgan analysts noted in a recent report that Strategy has recently increased its U.S. dollar reserves from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, enough to cover roughly 20 months of preferred stock dividend payments, an encouraging sign for Bitcoin’s outlook. If Strategy can rebuild its U.S. dollar reserves to a level covering two to three years of dividends, it will ease market concerns that the company may be forced to sell Bitcoin in the future to cover preferred stock dividend payments. Meanwhile, despite sharp recent volatility in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, both Bitcoin futures and perpetual contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) recorded net inflows this week—flows typically driven by institutional investors rather than retail, in contrast to the outflows seen in spot ETFs. Additionally, leveraged ETFs linked to Strategy have seen relatively stable, positive net flows over the past seven weeks, driven mainly by retail buying, which has supported Strategy’s common stock price and prevented it from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Strategy President and CEO Phong Le stated earlier this week that the company’s balance sheet is very secure; it will only begin to worry about debt-related risks if Bitcoin falls to roughly the $8,000–$10,000 range, and plans to issue more shares after STRC preferred stock returns to its $100 par value to further accumulate Bitcoin and expand its U.S. dollar reserves. JPMorgan also reiterated that Strategy is not a major structural threat to Bitcoin; a larger risk lies in the promotion of blockchain technology through permissioned systems, which does not benefit public blockchains or their tokens.

US stock market sell-off drags Bitcoin lower, while Micron falls more than 30% from its all-time high.

Bitcoin pulled back alongside U.S. stocks on Thursday, trading around $64,500 in a range, down roughly 1.5% from the three-week high it notched the prior day. Earlier, both U.S. June CPI and PPI came in below expectations, spurring brief gains for crypto assets and U.S. equities, but tech stocks were subsequently sold off. Micron Technology has now pulled back over 30% from its all-time high set on June 22. The Kobeissi Letter noted that retail investors are cashing in on tech stock gains, with net selling of Tesla and Apple hitting $200 million each over the past two weeks, while total retail stock trading volume rose to a record $370 billion. Market participants remain cautious about Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Exitpump said Bitcoin is testing the anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP) calculated from its early-May high of $82,000, a level that could cap the current rally and trigger stronger resistance. Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin has shown initial signs of stalling at its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) near $65,900, and continues to believe the current trend could mirror the 2022 bear market, with the next macro bottom potentially arriving later this year.

Bankless Co-founder: Bitcoin may have entered a sideways consolidation phase, with the bottom largely in place.

Bankless co-founder David Hoffman published an article stating that Bitcoin’s current trend faces two possible paths: sideways consolidation to bottom out, or one final round of panic selling. He opines that Bitcoin is more likely to enter a sideways grinding phase, with its bottom already largely formed.

Analysis: Bitcoin block call options logged $1.65 billion in trading volume today, as traders are bullish on the cryptocurrency’s performance in the latter part of this month.

Greeks.live researcher Adam published a note stating that Bitcoin saw a sharp rise in bulk call option trading today, with a total of 25,766 BTC call options traded, carrying a nominal value of approximately $1.65 billion. Among these, the bull call spread strategy with strike prices of $70,000/$72,000 expiring at the end of this month saw nearly 10,000 contracts traded, becoming the most active contract. Adam noted that with only around two weeks left until month-end, the large-scale purchase of out-of-the-money call options roughly 10% above the current price reflects the market’s optimistic expectation for Bitcoin’s performance in late this month. However, the adoption of the low-cost bull call spread strategy also indicates that capital is still positioned tentatively rather than making aggressive bets.

Swedish listed company Bitcoin Treasury Capital has received approval to list its preferred stock product, BTC PREF.

Swedish listed company Bitcoin Treasury Capital has been approved to list Sweden’s first bitcoin-backed preferred share product, BTC PREF, on Sweden’s Spotlight Stock Market starting July 20, offering a 10% annual dividend.

Bitcoin falls below $64,000, Ethereum drops below $1,900

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $64,000, with a 24-hour decline of 0.89%. Ethereum has dropped below $1,900, and its 24-hour gain narrowed to 1.3%.

CZ: Artificial intelligence cannot hedge against inflation, but Bitcoin can.

Binance founder CZ issued a bullish statement on Bitcoin: "Artificial intelligence is undoubtedly powerful, but it cannot hedge against inflation. Bitcoin can."

Yesterday, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $107.7 million, while U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $53.9 million.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net inflow of $107.7 million yesterday. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $80.8 million, Fidelity’s FBTC recorded $16.9 million in net inflows, Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF posted $10 million, while all other ETFs had zero net flows for the day. In the same period, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs totaled a net inflow of $53.9 million. Breakdown shows BlackRock’s ETHA brought in $45.3 million, ETHB had $4 million, Grayscale’s Ethereum ETF recorded $4.6 million, with all other ETFs registering no net inflows on the day.

Trump tends to expand military operations against Iran, Bitcoin remains range-bound, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher.

U.S. officials say days after holding brief meetings with several senior aides, U.S. President Donald Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations against Iran. Potential options include intensifying airstrikes, deploying ground forces to seize Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz, and bombing a fortified site possibly used for secret nuclear activities. On July 15, the U.S. military carried out a maritime blockade against Iran in the Arabian Gulf, stopping an oil tanker that was attempting to sail to an Iranian port and was not carrying cargo. An Iranian military spokesperson stated that the only way to reopen the waterway is for the U.S. to abide by the memorandum of understanding and enforce "Iranian regulations" in the Strait of Hormuz. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. stocks closed on Wednesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.29%, the S&P 500 up 0.38%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.6%. Apple (AAPL.O) rose 4%, ASML (ASML.O) climbed 2%, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) fell 9%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) dropped 8%, and Intel (INTC.O) decreased 4.4%. According to HTX market data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,847, down 0.08% in the past 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, global crypto liquidations totaled $303 million, including $112 million in long positions and $191 million in short positions.

Kraken Launches Customized Crypto Vaults, Allowing Users to Earn Yields on Idle Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Stablecoins

Kraken Institutional has announced a partnership with on-chain yield platform Upshift, allowing qualified institutional clients to earn returns on idle Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins and other crypto assets directly within Kraken’s compliant custody framework. Unlike traditional pooled vaults, Upshift will build dedicated, customized vaults for each client, fully tailored to their investment strategies, risk parameters, liquidity needs and asset portfolios. Assets will be allocated to these non-custodial vaults, then deployed to selected on-chain contracts, with clients’ segregated Kraken custody accounts receiving a receipt token.

SEC Approves BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF, Significantly Raising Its Options Position and Exercise Limits to 1 Million Contracts.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announcement: The rule change submitted by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on July 6 has taken effect immediately, sharply raising the position and exercise limits for options on BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) from 250,000 contracts to 1 million, to meet the rapid growth in IBIT options trading volume and enhance market liquidity as well as market maker capabilities.

Bitcoin breaks through $65,000, with a 2.1% gain in the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has surpassed $65,000, with a 2.1% rise in the past 24 hours.

Abraxas Capital is reportedly selling Bitcoin to rebalance its portfolio into Ethereum.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, Abraxas Capital is suspected of recently selling Bitcoin to buy Ethereum. Over the past three hours, the firm withdrew 8,153 ETH, worth approximately $15.3 million, from Binance and Bybit, while depositing 618 BTC, valued at around $39.99 million, into Kraken.

Crypto whale sets 10 profit targets, shares trade results showing he went long on Bitcoin three times, earning roughly $4 million in total profits.

A crypto contract whale, who earlier announced he would "set 10 big trading goals first", posted details of his three recent Bitcoin (BTC) transactions on social media: On June 25, he opened a long BTC position at $59,837.99 and closed it at $58,592.06, incurring a $4.88 million loss; On July 6, he opened another long BTC position at $62,590.4 and closed it at $64,022.01 for a $4.54 million profit; On July 13, he opened a third long BTC position at $63,064.4 and closed it at $64,287.08, netting a $4.27 million gain.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $181.1 million, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $58.3 million.

According to data from Farside Investors, on July 14, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $181.1 million the previous day. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net inflow of $138.9 million, Fidelity’s FBTC $21.1 million, Bitwise’s BITB $3.5 million, ARK’s ARKB $3.6 million, Morgan Stanley’s MSBT $7.4 million, and BTC ETFs $6.6 million; flows for the remaining products were largely flat. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posted a total net inflow of $58.3 million, all from BlackRock’s ETHA, with all other ETFs registering zero net inflows that day.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through $64,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to break through the $64,000 mark, currently trading at $64,001, with a 2.49% increase in the past 24 hours.

A coin-based crypto trader sold all 30,139 Ether (ETH) and exchanged them for 859 Bitcoin (BTC).

According to monitoring by YuEmber, a crypto-based trader sold all 30,139 ETH, converting the holdings into 859 BTC valued at roughly $54.09 million. The short exchange rate stood at 0.0285, allowing the trader to repurchase a larger quantity of ETH once the exchange rate declines.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through $63,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to break through the $63,000 threshold, currently trading at $63,037, with a 0.41% increase in the past 24 hours.

Michael Saylor: Bitcoin is digital capital, and MicroStrategy is converting it into digital credit.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor stated in a post that Bitcoin is digital capital, and the firm is converting it into digital credit.

Analyst: Bitcoin’s stochastic RSI hitting zero over two months may signal the end of this bear market.

Trader Max Crypto stated that Bitcoin’s two-month Stochastic RSI has historically confirmed market bottoms during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear markets, when the indicator saw a bullish crossover and retreated to 0. He predicts this pattern "will repeat in 2026." TradingView data shows Bitcoin’s two-month Stochastic RSI currently stands at 4.81, after falling into the oversold zone (below 30) in March this year—its lowest level in over three years. Separately, multiple analysts are continuing to track bullish signals from the traditional RSI indicator. Trader BitcoinHyper pointed out that Bitcoin’s daily RSI has formed a bullish divergence with the S&P 500 index; Trader Osemka noted that Bitcoin’s daily RSI dipped to 15 in early June, an extremely rare oversold level historically, matching the performance near previous bear market bottoms, though a deeper pullback before finalizing its bottom formation remains possible.

Hyperliquid's contracts posted a 24-hour trading volume exceeding that of Bitcoin (BTC), making it the platform's most active asset.

On the Hyperliquid platform, the combined 24-hour trading volume of SK Hynix-related contracts SKHX and SKHY has reached $1.836 billion, surpassing BTC to become the platform’s top active asset by trading volume. Specifically, SKHX posted a 24-hour trading volume of $1.63 billion, with open interest (OI) of $635 million; SKHY recorded a 24-hour trading volume of $206 million, and its open interest stood at $101 million. As of now, SKHY still carries a roughly 26% premium over SKHX.

Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $424.7 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $15.4 million.

According to Farside Investors' monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $424.7 million yesterday. IBIT recorded a net outflow of $185.5 million, while FBTC posted a net outflow of $245.6 million. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $15.4 million, all from FETH.

Analysis: Rising expectations of a July interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve have pressured Bitcoin lower.

Bitcoin has fallen more than 2% in the past 24 hours, trading at around $62,380. Market expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike as early as July have risen sharply: funding markets now put the probability of a rate hike this month at roughly 50%, up from only about 10% just a few days ago. The shift in expectations stems from Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks that officials may need to raise rates to curb price pressures. U.S. two-year Treasury yields have since climbed to 4.29%, hitting their highest level since the start of last year. Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a sharp rally in oil prices have also amplified inflation concerns: WTI crude oil futures have risen from $67 per barrel at the start of the month to nearly $80 per barrel. The U.S. Labor Department will release June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the year-over-year rise in headline CPI to fall below 4%, with both headline and core inflation likely seeing their first monthly decline since January; May’s figures were 4.2% and 2.9% respectively. However, the recent oil price surge may lead markets to view this CPI data as a lagging indicator. If inflation proves more persistent, it could further intensify rate hike fears. Markets will next focus on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. ING analysts note Powell can emphasize that inflation expectations remain relatively moderate, and there is sufficient basis to keep interest rates unchanged; even if a rate hike is ultimately delivered, it could be reversed shortly after, with future rate cuts likely to exceed hikes in magnitude.

Since Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH), cumulative sell pressure on meme coins on Binance has reached $1.2 billion.

According to analyst Darkfost, since Bitcoin’s last all-time high in October 2025, cumulative selling pressure across the entire meme coin sector on Binance has topped $1 billion. The net trading volume of meme coins on the platform has hit -$1.21 billion. Darkfost notes this reflects the massive selling pressure weighing on the crypto ecosystem’s highest-risk assets, clearly demonstrating the severe toll the sector has endured amid market corrections.

Coinbase: Bitcoin has held up relatively well amid multiple headwinds, which may signal that the market is bottoming out.

Coinbase Institutional noted that U.S. non-farm payrolls came in far lower than expected, but escalating Middle East conflicts have refocused market attention on inflation risks. Markets are now pricing in "higher rates for longer," leading to tighter financial conditions, pressure on long-term risk assets, and rising odds of another interest rate hike this year. Amid these multiple headwinds, BTC only dropped roughly 2%—this relative resilience could signal the market is undergoing a bottoming process.

Analysts: Bitcoin’s panic selling may be nearing an end, with marginal selling pressure drying up.

Multiple market analysts believe Bitcoin’s months-long panic selling may be drawing to a close, as marginal sell orders in the market gradually dry up. Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter (OTC) trader at Wintermute, noted that despite recent escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and strained conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has held firm above $62,000, indicating that previous “weak hands” sell orders have largely been cleared. Additionally, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $197.4 million last week, ending eight consecutive weeks of net outflows, further easing selling pressure. Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva cited Glassnode data, pointing out that Bitcoin’s spot market saw an average daily net sell of around 2,000 BTC in June, which fell to roughly 53 BTC in July, marking one of the calmest months for the market since 2026. However, analysts warned that Bitcoin’s current rally is primarily driven by the derivatives market, with spot buying remaining relatively weak. The upcoming release of U.S. June CPI data and Congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh this week could still serve as key catalysts shaping market movements.

MicroStrategy held off on adding to its Bitcoin holdings last week, selling 4.82 million shares to raise $467 million.

According to SEC filings, during the week ended July 12, Strategy sold approximately 4.82 million shares of MSTR stock via its At-the-Market (ATM) offering plan, raising net proceeds of roughly $466.7 million. During the same period, Strategy made no Bitcoin purchases, keeping its BTC holdings unchanged at 843,775 coins. Calculated at an average purchase cost of $75,476, the total cost of its BTC holdings stands at approximately $63.69 billion. Additionally, Strategy disclosed that it did not conduct any share repurchases between July 6 and July 12, and held roughly $3 billion in cash reserves as of July 12.

Bitcoin ETFs end eight consecutive weeks of net outflows; escalating Middle East tensions drag BTC down to $63,000.

Reciprocal airstrikes between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend stoked market risk aversion, pushing Bitcoin down more than 1% since 00:00 UTC on July 13, with the cryptocurrency briefly dipping to near $63,000. Brent crude futures, meanwhile, climbed over 3% to nearly $79 per barrel. Markets are worried that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will lift energy prices and inflation, in turn limiting the Federal Reserve’s scope for interest rate cuts and weighing on risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Kula Digital Assets Head Taran Dhillon noted that this week the crypto market will engage in a "tug-of-war" between macroeconomic data and Middle East geopolitical developments. Upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI figures will shape market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate trajectory. That said, spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs have ended eight straight weeks of net outflows, signaling a rebound in institutional demand. Furthermore, the ongoing progress of the CLARITY Act is expected to further improve digital asset regulatory outlooks, offering support to the market.

Analysis: Multiple indicators signal a bottoming out, with some analysts predicting Bitcoin could restart its bull market between September and October.

Although Bitcoin recently pulled back to around $62,000 amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, some market analysts believe this bear market could end between September and October this year, with the bull market expected to start earlier than the market’s general consensus. Trader Ryker noted that while the market generally expects the next bull run to begin in 2027, market makers typically position themselves in advance, so he predicts Bitcoin will start rallying in September or October this year. Trader Jelle pointed out that Bitcoin’s weekly chart has formed a "death cross"—a signal that historically occurs at the end of bear markets, suggesting the market may have entered a new accumulation phase. However, in the short term, Bitcoin still faces pressure. Analysts say $64,000 remains a key resistance level; if it fails to break through, a further pullback to around $57,800 is possible. Additionally, this week the market will get U.S. June CPI and PPI data, as well as testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh before Congress. Meanwhile, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and instability in the Strait of Hormuz have boosted oil prices and inflation expectations, which may continue to roil risk assets including crypto assets. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that mid-sized Bitcoin addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC net sold approximately 67,000 BTC on July 13, marking the largest such distribution since February this year. However, the firm noted that similar distribution activity historically occurs just before price rebounds. While the current signal is not enough to confirm a market bottom, it is approaching the historical range where a major shift in mid-sized investor behavior typically takes place.

Bitcoin falls below $63,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $63,000, currently trading at $62,979, with a 1.62% decline in the past 24 hours.

A crypto whale that had been dormant for seven years has woken up, with its 2,931 Bitcoin holding generating nearly tenfold unrealized profit.

According to monitoring by OnchainLens, a Bitcoin whale dormant for seven years has reactivated today. The address has held 2,931 BTC since the cryptocurrency’s price stood at roughly $6,500, valued at approximately $188 million at that time, and has remained inactive ever since. The holding has now appreciated tenfold.