Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Bitcoin leads the market lower as celebrity trader Frank panic-sold over $1 million worth of altcoins.

As Bitcoin experiences a sharp pullback, the crypto market appears to be gripped by panic once more. Over the past half hour, prominent trader and DeGods founder @frankdegods has rapidly offloaded altcoins worth roughly $1 million on-chain, including $1 million worth of BP, $250,000 worth of EDEL, $70,000 worth of GP, and other tokens.

Bitcoin breaks below the $84,000 level

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin dropped below $84,000, with a 2.00% decline over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin falls below $85,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $85,000, with a 24-hour decline of 0.93%.

Bitcoin ETFs see $91.72M outflow, Ethereum ETFs down $215.37M over 7 days

Oct 6 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -1,059 $BTC(-$91.72M)?? 7D NetFlow: +1,074 $BTC(+$93M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -21,432 $ETH(-$58.29M)?? 7D NetFlow: -79,193 $ETH(-$215.37M)??

Analysis: S&P 500 and Bitcoin have a 100% probability of rising within 12 months after the U.S. midterm elections.

According to statistics from XWIN Japan, in the 12 months following all 19 U.S. midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen, with an average gain of 15.4%. The third year of a U.S. president’s term has historically been its strongest performing period. In the crypto market, Bitcoin has posted gains of 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the 12 months after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections respectively. However, Bitcoin dropped 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election. It should be noted that there are only three observed data points for the crypto market, which is insufficient to form a reliable pattern. Analysts suggest that after midterm elections are finalized, attention should be paid to whether yields stabilize, institutional buying persists, and regulatory progress is made. Political tailwinds may benefit Bitcoin, but sustained growth still requires favorable market conditions to align.

Binance Research: Bitcoin has confirmed a "golden cross", which may signal a strong market recovery.

Binance Research released its October market report, noting that despite the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2023 and the failure of the CLARITY Act, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose 11% in September to $2.99 trillion. Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.49 billion that month, pushing their net flow in 2026 to positive territory for the first time on September 23. BTC confirmed a "golden cross" – where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average – on September 8, with the gap between the two indicators widening to around $7,500. Historically, such deep resets are often followed by strong recoveries.

Analysis: Bitcoin has logged sufficient turnover above $83,000, and may be gearing up to challenge $100,000.

According to analyst alicharts, Bitcoin has established a major support zone between $83,300 and $84,600. URPD data shows that 1.59 million BTC have been traded within this range, providing a defendable level for buyers. On the other hand, Bitcoin whales have increased their holdings by 14,335 BTC since October 1, worth approximately $1.22 billion. alicharts believes that if Bitcoin can hold the support level and break above $86,700, there will be no major selling pressure until around $105,000.

Long-term Bitcoin holders have cut their positions for seven straight weeks, but this has not halted the cryptocurrency’s price rally.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) have reduced their positions for seven consecutive weeks, yet Bitcoin’s price has continued to rise, indicating current market demand is still able to absorb this new supply. Data shows the LTH position change indicator turned negative on August 17 and has remained so since. On September 28, the metric fell to -73,400 BTC, compared to just -1,100 BTC one week prior. However, the current scale of sell-offs remains significantly smaller than the peak of -1.07 million BTC recorded in November 2025. Meanwhile, the LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has been above 1 for two consecutive weeks, hitting 1.18 on September 28, meaning recently transferred Bitcoin held by long-term holders has generated an average profit of around 18% relative to their cost basis. Adler Jr. stated that long-term holders are currently primarily taking profits amid the price rally, and the real cause for concern is a further expansion of sell-offs paired with Bitcoin’s price halting its rise or even turning downward.

Analysis: If Bitcoin holds steady above $87,000, it could pave the way for the cryptocurrency to challenge record highs.

FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that Bitcoin has encountered resistance near $87,000 for the third time since September 23. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has formed a trend of "rising local lows" since the start of last week, yet bulls have failed to build sufficient upward momentum. The cryptocurrency is now approaching the apex of a triangle pattern formed by a horizontal resistance line and an ascending support line; a breakout from this pattern could trigger higher market volatility. If bulls can absorb selling pressure at this level and push Bitcoin to hold above $87,000, it would signal easing selling pressure at the position, potentially paving the way for Bitcoin to challenge its nearly 8-month high.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $89.8 million, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $18.9 million.

According to Farside's monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $89.8 million yesterday. Among them, IBIT posted a net inflow of $6.99 million, while FBTC saw a net outflow of $74.5 million and ARKB a net outflow of $85.2 million; the remaining ETFs had zero capital flows. For spot Ethereum ETFs, total net outflows reached $18.9 million, with only FETH logging a net outflow of $18.9 million, and the rest of the ETFs showing no capital movement.

Analysis: Bitcoin bull market indicators remain in bullish territory, with a current lack of spot demand to drive gains.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index remains firmly in bullish territory, currently standing at 80/100, with multiple metrics continuing to support BTC’s upward momentum. Darkfost pointed out that the only relatively lagging factor at present is spot demand. As observed earlier, the market’s spot trading volume remains low, so there is no obvious spot buying demand at this stage. He believes spot demand is the missing key factor in the current BTC market trend, and this part is often the last to materialize.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $85,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $85,000 and is currently trading at $85,126.

Bitcoin ETFs see $164.22M inflow while Ethereum ETFs suffer $63.56M outflow

Oct 5 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +1,918 $BTC(+$164.22M)?? 7D NetFlow: +2,645 $BTC(+$226.41M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -23,533 $ETH(-$63.56M)?? 7D NetFlow: -52,114 $ETH(-$140.75M)??

Last week, Strategy added 334 Bitcoin to its holdings at an average price of $85,839, and repurchased $176 million worth of STRC.

According to official sources, Strategy last week purchased 334 BTC at an average price of $85,839 for a total of $28.7 million, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 848,000 coins, valued at $63.97 billion on a cost basis. The company repurchased $176 million worth of STRC, sold 92,894 shares of MSTR stock, and raised $15.7 million to finance the Bitcoin acquisition. Strategy projects its third-quarter digital asset revenue will reach $20.91 billion. As of September 30, the book value of its Bitcoin holdings stood at $70.82 billion.

Strive spent an additional $169 million to acquire 2,000 Bitcoin last week, bringing its total Bitcoin position to 29,462.

Strive CEO Matt Cole disclosed that the company purchased 2,000 Bitcoin (BTC) at an average price of $84,422 per token, with total spending of roughly $169 million, bringing its total BTC holdings to 29,462 coins. Sixty-one point five percent of the funds raised in this round originated from SATA, and the warrants generated an additional $56.7 million in proceeds.

Remixpoint increases its Bitcoin holdings by 7.45 BTC, bringing its total BTC position to 1,508.72.

Japanese listed company Remixpoint has increased its Bitcoin holdings by 7.45 BTC, bringing its total BTC holdings to 1,508.72.

Analysis: Bitcoin short-term holders continue to add to their positions, with their average cost rising to $74,100.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that as of October 4, Bitcoin holdings of short-term holders increased by 87,000 coins over the past 30 days to 3.94 million, marking the seventh consecutive week this metric has outpaced the prior month’s level. The indicator has remained positive since August 18, signaling a rise in Bitcoin supply that has changed hands over the past six months. Currently, short-term Bitcoin holders have an average cost basis of roughly $74,100, with an overall unrealized profit of around 15%—nearly unchanged from a week ago, but below the September 22 phase high of 19%. Meanwhile, their average cost has climbed by approximately $1,000 week-over-week, indicating that as Bitcoin’s price rises, the entry cost for short-term holders is also increasing. The $74,100 level is a key threshold to monitor now. If Bitcoin drops below this level, short-term holders as a whole will flip into unrealized losses; if the 30-day holding change also turns negative, it means this group’s position size is starting to shrink, which could further erode market structure.

Ansem is strongly bullish on the market outlook, predicting that major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin will reach new highs before Christmas.

Crypto KOL Ansem issued a prediction this morning that major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, ZEC, and HYPE will hit new highs before Christmas.

A prominent trader predicts Bitcoin will break through its previous high between April 26 and August 2 next year.

Well-known crypto trader Killa has published a prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will break its all-time high between April 26 and August 2, 2027. In an accompanying chart comparing historical market cycles, he pointed out that the bottom phases in 2022 and 2026 have shortened, implying the cycle rhythm has accelerated due to an earlier bottoming out, leading him to estimate BTC could hit a new all-time high as early as May to July 2027. Killa, a quantitative trader specializing in BTC, previously called the peak of the current bull market in May 2025 and boasts over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, then switched to a long position during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

Glassnode: Bitcoin’s largest liquidation cluster above current levels is in the $90,000 range.

Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s largest liquidation cluster sits around $90,000. A price hit to this level would force leveraged short positions to liquidate. Looking back over the past two months, Glassnode notes smaller liquidation clusters are visible around $83,000 and $75,000. Whichever level the price reaches, it could accelerate the next round of market volatility.

Middle East conflict fears escalate, U.S. stock futures edge higher, Bitcoin once again tests the $87,000 mark.

This weekend, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi militants have escalated, while Trump has repeatedly hinted at further actions against Iran, raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict. However, early Monday, boosted by cooling expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, U.S. stock index futures edged higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.3%. Bitcoin also accelerated its rebound after U.S. futures opened, potentially retesting the $87,000 level. As of press time, per HTX market data, Bitcoin is trading at $86,371, with a 24-hour gain of 1.35%.

Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, potentially signaling additional BTC purchases.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates on the company’s Bitcoin tracker, noting, “More orange than ever.” Following past patterns, the orange dots represent Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase records, and this move likely signals the firm will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes to its Bitcoin position the day after such announcements.

Bitcoin OGs Move First Funds in 13 Years: 1,346 $BTC ($115M) Now Worth 479x Initial Investment

Two Bitcoin OGs who bought 1,346 $BTC($115M now) 13 years ago have moved 0.0005 $BTC ($43) after years of dormancy as a test transaction. They bought 1,346 $BTC ($240K at the time) 13 years ago at an average price of $178, and are now sitting on a 479x return.

A dormant Bitcoin address inactive for over 13 years has reactivated, holding 801 BTC with an unrealized profit of more than $67 million.

According to on-chain data, a Bitcoin whale dormant for over 13 years has reactivated. When Bitcoin traded between $124.86 and $411.75, the whale accumulated 801 BTC. At 17:43:54 Beijing time today, it transferred BTC worth $43, likely a test transaction, and the unrealized profit of its holdings stands at $67.82 million.

Analysis: Bitcoin long-term holders have remained profitable throughout this cycle, marking the first time since 2015.

Glassnode’s report indicates that Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) have remained profitable throughout this cycle. Since 2015, no previous bear market has seen this dynamic. In every prior bear cycle, the LTH MVRV ratio fell below 1 at the cycle’s low point, signaling the group as a whole was in unrealized losses. However, for this cycle, the LTH-MVRV ratio stayed above 1 even at its lowest level and has now started rising again.

Benson Sun: Bitcoin is seeing active capital support in the $83,000 to $84,000 range, with obvious buying response.

Coinkarma founder Benson Sun posted that around 11 PM on October 1, U.S. stocks and gold weakened simultaneously, but the Binance BTC/USDT spot market saw consecutive market buy orders of roughly 400 BTC, supporting the price above $84,000, with the final candlestick closing as a doji. Around 1:30 AM on October 3, within the same price range, the market briefly had market sell orders of around 1,400 BTC, which pushed the price down sharply to form a long lower wick before the level held. Candlestick data shows sell orders of roughly 100 BTC appeared every few seconds at the time, but every price dip was quickly reversed by buy orders. Benson Sun pointed out that this range highly overlaps with the $83,000-$84,000 zone where on-chain holdings have accumulated rapidly recently. Based on spot order flow and on-chain data, there is active capital support in this price range, and buy orders have responded noticeably once BTC enters this zone.

A Bitcoin whale has placed a $10.27 million long bet on Bitcoin, targeting a rebound, at an average entry price of $84,918.9.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (handle @ai_9684xtpa), address 0x799…15f4c opened its first position on Hyperliquid, betting on Bitcoin (BTC)’s rebound with 7x leverage. The address initiated a long position of 121.23 BTC in the early hours of today, with the position valued at approximately $10.27 million, an average entry price of $84,918.9, and is currently facing an unrealized loss of around $20,000.

Prominent Trader: Bitcoin short target remains at $79,000, deepest correction expected between $69,000 and $71,000

Renowned trader Doctor Profit posted that he has shorted Bitcoin at $86,200 and is adding short positions in the $86,500–$89,500 range to build a swing short position. His current target remains $79,000; once that level is hit, he will decide to either take profits or hold the short based on Bitcoin’s price reaction. He noted the deepest correction range he is considering is $69,000–$71,000, and does not expect prices to drop lower. While the short entered at $86,200 is working so far, he will assess the market at each price level rather than betting on a deep correction outright. His next step is to first monitor support performance near $79,000 to determine whether Bitcoin will continue falling, reverse to extend the bull market, or hit a new local high.

EntropyLab launches an offline Bitcoin wallet tool supporting completely offline key generation.

Bitcoin offline key tool EntropyLab has released its self-contained Bitcoin key and wallet calculation tool v1.0.0rc1, the project’s first release candidate. The tool runs entirely from a single HTML file, requires no internet connectivity, and does not generate random entropy on its own—users must supply their own entropy values to compute Bitcoin keys and wallets in a fully offline environment. It supports features including multi-signature, PSBT, BIP-85, Silent Payments, vanity addresses, read-only wallet exports, and nonce analysis. EntropyLab states that this release is reproducible and verifiable via signatures from four independent signers. The team advises users to verify the downloaded file before transferring it to an air-gapped computer for use. The official v1.0.0 version has not yet been released, as the project is currently testing this release candidate.

Analysis: 30-year US Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002, Bitcoin faces dual signals

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note has risen to its highest level since 2002, driven by record fiscal deficit spending and persistent inflation. U.S. CPI has exceeded the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target for 60 consecutive months, the longest stretch since the 1980s. Wealth concentration in the U.S. remains extreme: the net worth of the top 1% of U.S. households totals roughly $60.3 trillion, 14.3 times that of the bottom 50% of households. The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen by 23% since 2020. The 24-year high in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield puts direct pressure on Bitcoin, as higher discount rates tend to compress valuations of non-yield-bearing assets. On the flip side, persistent inflation and the dollar’s declining purchasing power could reinforce Bitcoin’s narrative as a hard asset and inflation hedge. The market is currently grappling with two conflicting signals; in the short term, the key question is whether support for BTC from inflation and a weaker dollar, or pressure on risk assets from rising long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, will prevail.

Forbes: The narrative of Bitcoin as a "depreciation hedge" is heating up, Trump says a moderate level of inflation can quickly reduce $40 trillion in debt.

According to Forbes, U.S. President Donald Trump told Time magazine in an interview that "a certain level of inflation will also pay off debt very quickly," sparking market debate over whether the U.S. can reduce its real debt burden through nominal economic growth and inflation. The outlet notes that U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, more than doubling over the past decade, while interest payments have climbed steadily after Federal Reserve rate hikes. Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Elon Musk have all previously cited technology-driven economic growth as a critical solution to debt pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has rallied roughly 300% from its 2023 low, but remains about 30% below its 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Markets have recently refocused on the "debasement trade"—a strategy where investors hedge against fiat currency purchasing power erosion by allocating to assets like gold and Bitcoin. Forbes cited Bitfire Research’s analysis, which argues that Bitcoin’s long-term value as a hedge against fiat depreciation remains valid, though short-term prices may still be swayed by interest rate policies and U.S. dollar liquidity. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, shows U.S. prices rose 3.4% year-over-year, still above the Fed’s 2% target. Markets assign a roughly 70% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its late-October policy meeting.

Glassnode: Bitcoin investors who bought at high levels are selling, with daily sell volumes from those who entered during the 2025 rally at their highest.

According to Glassnode’s monitoring, investors who bought Bitcoin (BTC) at high levels are now selling. Two groups of investors are in unrealized losses: those who purchased BTC 1–2 years ago hold an average cost basis of around $97,000, while those who bought 6–12 months ago have an average cost of roughly $89,000. Glassnode states that investors who acquired BTC during the 2025 bull run have recorded the highest daily average sell volume this year, whereas investors who bought during market pullbacks have not exhibited similar selling behavior.

VanEck: Bitcoin may still continue to expand its market share going forward, and quantum computing is currently not a sufficient reason to sell.

VanEck Digital Assets Research Head Matthew Sigel stated in an interview that with the rapid development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, the power resources and long-term power contracts held by Bitcoin miners are gaining new value. Sigel pointed out that in the past, miners’ core assets were primarily viewed as computing power and BTC production capacity, but AI data centers’ demand for large volumes of stable power is reshaping the market’s valuation of miners’ power contracts. He added that some miners have signed 10-to-20-year long-term power lease agreements with investment-grade counterparties, and these contracts are granting miners "optionality"—a value distinct from pure BTC exposure. The AI sector’s growth is making power an increasingly scarce resource, so miners with low-cost, long-term locked power supplies may unlock new business opportunities, including transitions to AI infrastructure. On the Bitcoin market front, current signs of seller fatigue suggest investors should focus on opportunities following pullbacks. Additionally, Sigel compared the roles of gold and Bitcoin in investment portfolios, arguing Bitcoin may continue to expand its market share going forward. He also discussed the potential impact of quantum computing on the Bitcoin network, noting that quantum computing is a long-term risk to monitor but not yet a reason for investors to sell BTC. VanEck remains bullish on Bitcoin adoption trends, and views Bitcoin reaching a certain percentage of the gold market capitalization as one key future valuation reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin Pullback Eyes $82,500 Support; Rebound Opportunity May Emerge If Whales Resume Buying the Dip

Crypto analyst Ali Charts posted that BTC’s recent rally to near $87,000 has been capped, due to factors including whales taking continuous profits during the rise, and the $87,000 level being at the top of a channel that has been consistently suppressing BTC recently. Ali Charts said that during the overall sideways consolidation of the market over the past week, Bitcoin whale holdings decreased by about 30,000 BTC, worth around $2.52 billion, indicating that some large investors are reducing their risk exposure. Currently, Ali Charts is focusing on the support area near the lower edge of BTC’s channel, around $82,500. He noted that if BTC pulls back to this level and whales are seen resuming accumulation, this could signal a potential dip buy opportunity, with expectations of a subsequent rebound to test the resistance near $87,000.

Bitdeer sold 292.3 BTC this week, maintaining a zero Bitcoin position.

Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining firm Bitdeer stated in a post on X that during the week ending October 2, it mined 292.3 BTC, sold an equal amount of BTC in the same period, resulting in zero net new BTC, and currently maintains a zero Bitcoin position.

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has made net purchases of Bitcoin worth $1.57 billion over the past month.

According to Arkham's monitoring, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has net purchased Bitcoin worth $1.57 billion over the past month. As of press time, IBIT holds more than 800,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $67.87 billion.

A well-known trader: Bitcoin’s annual high stands at $97,000; if it fails to hold the $80,000 level in the short term, it could bottom out at $74,000.

Prominent trader Killa posted that he expects Bitcoin to reach a yearly high of $97,000, with the majority of the year likely seeing the cryptocurrency trade sideways below that level. Killa noted Bitcoin’s short-term key level is $80,000–$83,000, a threshold more significant than many realize: if it breaks, the next likely zone would be $74,000–$77,000, which could mark the final capitulation bottom before Bitcoin’s push toward $97,000. However, if bullish momentum persists, pullbacks could be far shallower, potentially only dipping to the $80,000 low before the next upward rally. As a BTC-focused quantitative trader, Killa correctly predicted the peak of the current bull run in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, then shifted to a long position during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

US SEC approves 3x Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas ETPs

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in a post that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved 3x bull ETPs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas under the Securities Act of 1933.

Cooling jobs data dampens rate hike expectations, Nvidia’s new high leads U.S. stocks to close higher, and Bitcoin retreats again after failing to breach $87,000.

Overnight to this morning, U.S. employment data came in far below expectations: September added just 29,000 jobs, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while July and August figures were revised down by around 60,000 jobs. Following the data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in October cooled further. Driven by the above data, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.49%, the S&P 500 gained 0.74%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.19%. For individual stocks, according to BIT (bit.com) market data, SpaceX rose 7.35%, Tesla rose 4.65%, Dell rose 3.8%, Broadcom rose 3.35%, ASML rose 3.25%, and Nvidia rose 1.34% to hit another all-time high. Accenture fell 6.27%, and SanDisk dropped 3.79%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly surged to $87,000 after the employment data release before pulling back, currently trading at $84,643.39, with a 0.7% decline in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin falls below $86,000, with its intraday gain narrowing to 1.31%

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $86,000, currently trading at $85,990.62, with its intraday gain narrowing to 1.31%.

Bitcoin ETFs see $120.25M inflow, Ethereum ETFs outflow $64.69M on Oct 2

Oct 2 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +1,383 $BTC(+$120.25M)?? 7D NetFlow: +2,467 $BTC(+$214.4M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -23,436 $ETH(-$64.69M)?? 7D NetFlow: -8,133 $ETH(-$22.45M)??

Bankless Founder: Bitcoin will send a strong bullish signal if it closes above $86,600 on the daily chart.

Bankless founder David Hoffman said in a post that a daily closing price of Bitcoin (BTC) above $86,600 would send a strong bullish signal, while a daily close above $87,400 would make him extremely bullish.

U.S. September non-farm payrolls missed expectations, Bitcoin briefly surged past $87,000.

US September non-farm payrolls missed expectations: seasonally adjusted non-farm employment rose by 29,000, below the market consensus forecast of 90,000. According to HTX market data, Bitcoin broke through $87,000, now trading at $87,002, with its intraday gain widening to 2.5%.

Analysis: Bitcoin is currently approaching the cost bases of two major holding cohorts, and investors with 6-month to 2-year holding periods may face emotional tests.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published a note stating that Bitcoin is currently approaching the average cost price ranges of two major investor groups: investors who have held their BTC for 18 months to 2 years have an average cost of around $88,350, while those who have held for 6 to 12 months have an average cost of approximately $89,200. Darkfost noted that cost prices are not inherently support or resistance levels, but rather the average holding cost of a group. As prices approach this range, the behavior of relevant investors may shift, so this area should be viewed more as a potential risk zone. Notably, the group of investors who have held for 6 to 12 months have been in a loss for nearly a year, with some having bought in at market peaks. Going forward, some investors may sell to break even, while others may continue buying to lower their average holding cost. Darkfost believes both of these actions could impact Bitcoin’s current upward momentum.

Citigroup raises Bitcoin’s 12-month target price to $113,000, projects Ethereum will exceed $3,000.

According to Forbes, Citigroup analysts have raised their 12-month Bitcoin price target from the prior $82,000 to $113,000, and projected Ethereum prices will surpass $3,000. The analysts pointed out that increasing allocations to crypto assets among investment advisors and brokerages will drive more capital into Bitcoin ETFs, forecasting that roughly $5 billion in inflows could come to Bitcoin ETFs in the near term. Currently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold around $110 billion in assets under management (AUM) and approximately 1.3 million Bitcoin, with BlackRock’s IBIT holding over 800,000 of those coins. Citi noted that as institutional allocation capital continues to flow in, inflows to Bitcoin ETFs are expected to rise further.

Peak Forecast for Major Cryptocurrencies in This Bull Market: Bitcoin Could Rally to $190,000, Ethereum to $8,800

Crypto analyst alicharts, using long-term K-line charts of major crypto assets, predicts the tops of leading cryptocurrencies in this bull run from a technical analysis perspective as follows: Bitcoin’s first target is its previous high of $125,000; if it breaks through this level, it may test the upper boundary of its ascending channel, near $190,000. Ethereum’s monthly chart shows it has followed an ascending channel over the past five years, with the channel’s upper rail near $5,000 as a key level to watch. A break above this level is expected to push ETH toward $8,800. Solana’s monthly chart appears to be forming a cup-and-handle pattern, with its neckline around $295. A monthly close above this neckline would strengthen the bullish case, and the pattern’s projected potential target is near $2,744.

Tether-backed Utexo project plans to launch USDT on the Bitcoin network this month.

Utexo, backed by Tether, plans to launch USDT on the Bitcoin network this month. Utexo co-founder Viktor Ihnatiuk stated that the company has secured a commercial license to issue USDT on Bitcoin, and intends to provide APIs, SDKs, and cloud infrastructure for exchanges, wallets, and payment service providers. Built on the RGB protocol and Bitcoin’s UTXO model, Utexo will keep most transaction data off-chain, focusing on three core use cases: USDT private transfers, direct swaps between native BTC and USDT, and native BTC collateralized lending—eliminating the need to wrap BTC for use on other blockchains. USDT was first issued on Bitcoin via the Omni protocol in 2014, before Ethereum and Tron emerged as its primary circulating networks. Utexo also plans to expand support to the Lightning Network following USDT’s Bitcoin launch. (CoinDesk)

Currently, buying pressure in the Bitcoin derivatives market is approaching the 8.19 level, and bulls are rallying again.

Crypto analyst @AxelAdlerJr says Bitcoin's futures market buy pressure indicator has climbed to 4.9, marking its highest level since August 19. Contract open interest has risen by nearly 9,000 BTC in 24 hours, showing traders are resuming position-building. The buy pressure metric gauges the balance of market buying and selling, weighted by the magnitude of open interest changes. A reading of 4.9 means cumulative pressure over the past 12 hours is nearly five standard deviations above the weekly average. This surge likely coincides with long position establishment and short position liquidations. @AxelAdlerJr notes that if Bitcoin’s price holds above $85,000 even as upward momentum fades, it signals the rally could persist. The key risk for new long positions is a price break below $83,000: liquidations would likely accelerate the decline.

Renowned trader: Every pullback in Bitcoin is a buying opportunity, with the current reasonable dip-buying entry point around $82,500.

Renowned trader Killa stated in a post that Bitcoin’s trend has clearly shifted, though we remain in the peak phase of “market skepticism toward a bull market”. During the 2023 bull run, going long on each dip to an “established low” (a market-confirmed low that has demonstrated support) saw prices fall at most 8% below that low; in some instances, they only dipped 4–5% before rallying immediately. Our current “established low” stands at $82,500. Based on historical performance, the downward deviation is expected to be minimal. Killa, a BTC-focused quantitative trader who correctly predicted the peak of this bull cycle in May 2025, boasts over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and shifted to long positions during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

Glassnode: Bitcoin's sell wall above $85,000 has disappeared, potentially paving the way for further gains.

According to Glassnode’s monitoring, the sell-side liquidity wall above Bitcoin (BTC) has vanished. Buyers broke through the sell order wall near $85,000 yesterday, a level that had withstood multiple tests over nearly a week without being breached. Glassnode noted that remaining sell orders now appear to have been withdrawn, reducing sell-side liquidity above BTC, which could create more room for further price gains.