Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

El Salvador’s bitcoin holding limit issue has been resolved, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approving a $138 million grant.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $138 million disbursement to El Salvador as part of its $1.4 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. During the review, the IMF granted El Salvador a waiver for previously unmet requirements related to its bitcoin accumulation limits. The IMF noted that El Salvador has taken corrective measures and committed to further reducing the government’s involvement in bitcoin-related activities. According to the IMF’s disclosure, El Salvador does not anticipate accumulating additional bitcoin beyond the scope of its previously recorded donations moving forward, and will continue to enhance transparency disclosures and regulatory framework construction for government-held crypto assets. This disbursement is part of El Salvador’s 40-month, roughly $1.4 billion EFF program, which was approved in 2025.

Bitcoin surges past the $86,000 mark, logging a 1.35% intraday gain.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has risen above $86,000, currently trading at $86,030.09, with an intraday increase of 1.35%.

Yesterday, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $102.7 million, while the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $55.4 million.

According to Farside’s monitoring, the total net inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $102.7 million yesterday. Breakdown: BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net inflow of $195.6 million; Fidelity’s FBTC posted a net outflow of $60.7 million; Bitwise’s BITB recorded a net outflow of $6.9 million; Ark Invest/21Shares’ ARKB had a net outflow of $7.7 million; Invesco’s BTCO posted a net outflow of $4.2 million; VanEck’s HODL saw a net outflow of $3.6 million; Grayscale’s GBTC recorded a net outflow of $31.4 million; Morgan Stanley’s MSBT posted a net inflow of $7 million; Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) had a net inflow of $14.6 million; Franklin Templeton’s EZBC, CoinShares’ BRRR, and WisdomTree’s BTCW reported no inflows or outflows. Meanwhile, the total net outflow of U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs yesterday stood at $55.4 million. Details: Fidelity’s FETH posted a net outflow of $23.5 million; Bitwise’s ETHW had no inflows or outflows; VanEck’s ETHV recorded a net outflow of $6.9 million; Franklin Templeton’s EZET posted a net outflow of $6.1 million; Grayscale’s ETHE saw a net outflow of $20.4 million; 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $1.5 million; BlackRock’s ETHA and ETHB, 21Shares’ TETH, Invesco’s QETH, and Morgan Stanley’s MSSE reported no inflows or outflows.

Coinbase Report: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Reaches Yearly High, Demand Cools Slightly

Coinbase’s latest report indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) profit-taking has surged to its highest level this year, with market demand showing signs of cooling. On September 22, BTC holders booked profits from 25,700 BTC in a single day — the highest daily profit-taking volume since 2026. Meanwhile, the unrealized profit margin of short-term BTC traders climbed to 33%, its peak since December 2024. Over the past 30 days, BTC’s apparent spot demand has fallen by 170,000 units; the incremental speculative futures demand also dropped from 164,000 on September 14 to 16,000 on September 29.

IMF approves $139 million in funding for El Salvador, granting an exemption for its earlier violation of limits on increasing Bitcoin holdings.

According to Reuters, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $139 million disbursement to El Salvador, after granting a waiver to the country for violating conditions related to limits on further Bitcoin purchases. The IMF Executive Board completed the second and third reviews of El Salvador’s $1.4 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), allowing the immediate disbursement of the funds. The IMF noted that El Salvador’s economic performance has exceeded expectations, driven by improved security conditions and increased investor confidence. The IMF added that some planned performance criteria were not met, including the metric related to Bitcoin holdings. However, the IMF approved the waiver after El Salvador took strong corrective actions and renewed its commitments. In September, IMF staff stated that documents provided by El Salvador showed the additional Bitcoin the country acquired after the first review came from private donations, not public funds. The IMF also said El Salvador has made progress in anti-money laundering measures, fiscal transparency, and transferring most ownership and control of the state-owned digital wallet Chivo to private operators.

Bitcoin ETFs see $150M outflow, Ethereum ETFs down $13.89M in daily trading

Oct 1 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -1,796 $BTC(-$150.24M)?? 7D NetFlow: +3,096 $BTC(+$258.99M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -5,171 $ETH(-$13.89M)?? 7D NetFlow: +41,041 $ETH(+$110.24M)??

Citigroup raises its next 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum to $113,000 and $3,028 respectively.

According to Reuters, Citigroup has raised its 12-month price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum, citing factors including increased crypto market activity, a supportive macroeconomic environment, and a resumption of ETF inflows. The bank lifted Bitcoin’s 12-month price target from $82,000 to $113,000, and Ethereum’s from $2,240 to $3,028. In a Wednesday report, Citigroup said it expects crypto market inflows to resume, though at a slower, more steady pace than before, with sustained inflows as advisory firms and brokerages gradually increase their Bitcoin allocations. The bank projects $5 billion in inflows into the crypto market over the next 12 months. Last week, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, a setback for the broader crypto industry. After the U.S. Treasury recently repurchased long-term government bonds, the U.S. dollar weakened, reigniting upward momentum in the crypto market.

Analysis: Over the past week, Bitcoin whales reduced their holdings of approximately 30,000 BTC, while Ethereum whales increased their holdings of approximately 60,000 ETH.

According to data from analyst firm Alicharts, Bitcoin has traded sideways at a high level over the past week, during which whale groups offloaded approximately 30,000 Bitcoin (BTC), worth around $2.52 billion. Ethereum whales, meanwhile, accumulated 60,000 Ether (ETH) valued at $162 million. Alicharts noted that this divergence reflects differing market sentiment toward the two assets, and may signal that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin in the short term.

Bitcoin falls below $84,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $84,000, with a 0.02% decline in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin ETFs see $53.48M inflow, Ethereum ETFs outflow $15.31M in latest update

Sept 30 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +628 $BTC(+$53.48M)?? 7D NetFlow: +8,716 $BTC(+$742.56M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -5,621 $ETH(-$15.31M)?? 7D NetFlow: +95,515 $ETH(+$260.19M)??

Bitcoin surpasses $85,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has surged past $85,000, with a 0.73% gain in the past 24 hours.

After the release of U.S. PCE data, Bitcoin rallied to break through the $84,000 mark.

Following the release of U.S. PCE data, HTX market data shows Bitcoin rallied 0.6% in the short term, currently trading at $84,305. Bitget data indicates spot gold rose $14 in a short-term move to $4,205 per ounce, while spot silver gained $0.36 to $61.36 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped 15 basis points short-term to 101.05. Earlier reports noted that the U.S. August core PCE price index rose 3% year-over-year, below the 3.3% forecast and marking a six-month low. The prior reading was revised from 3.30% to 3%.

Michael Saylor: Bitcoin treasury firms like Strategy and Strive are not zero-sum competitors, and can work together to expand the digital credit market.

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, stated in a post that he wishes Strive and all well-managed issuers of Bitcoin-driven digital credit every success. Strategy and Strive are built on the same framework: BTC is digital capital, STRC and SATA are digital credit, and MSTR and ASST are digital equity. The two entities have independent securities structures and decision-making processes; while they will compete for individual capital allocations, they can also jointly expand long-term market opportunities. Saylor cited SIFMA data showing that as of the end of 2025, global stock market capitalization reached $157.8 trillion, and fixed-income debt balances stood at $160.7 trillion—meaning 0.1% of either market is roughly $160 billion. He outlined a three-fold amplification mechanism: Corporate financing to purchase Bitcoin, which has a limited supply, can boost demand and improve the asset coverage of related companies; more issuers launching digital credit products can build research, trading, and liquidity infrastructure, reduce the premium investors demand due to unfamiliarity, and potentially narrow credit spreads and financing costs; and more companies proving the model works across different market environments could enhance market recognition of digital equity. He also emphasized that individual Bitcoin purchases do not guarantee price increases, Bitcoin itself generates no interest, and the profit margin between long-term asset returns and financing costs must be achieved through disciplined management; more issuers do not automatically translate to higher valuations. The model depends on a robust capital structure, prudent liquidity, transparent disclosure, and useful products. Weak issuers could undermine confidence in the entire category, while more credible issuers can meet institutional diversification needs and attract funds that would otherwise not enter this space.

Analysis: The threat posed by a stronger U.S. dollar to Bitcoin may be overestimated, as the two assets have a weak long-term correlation.

A stronger U.S. dollar is generally seen as a headwind for U.S. dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin and gold. The U.S. dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency and debt-denomination currency; when it appreciates, repayment costs for U.S. dollar debt borrowers rise, typically leading to reduced exposure to risk assets. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen roughly 2.6% since September 9, hitting a two-month high of 101.69 on Tuesday. Bitcoin, after approaching $87,500 on September 21, has pulled back to the $83,000–$84,000 range. A stronger dollar may cap its upside, but the impact remains relatively limited for now. TradingView data shows that over the past 90 trading days, the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the DXY is -0.41, the lowest since February 2023, indicating the two tend to move inversely. However, the corresponding coefficient of determination is only 0.17, meaning the DXY explains roughly 17% of Bitcoin’s daily return volatility. The 30-day correlation coefficient between the two is -0.45, but this result is largely skewed by two exceptional sessions on August 19 and September 3, when Bitcoin rallied over 5% while the DXY fell. Excluding those two days, the correlation drops to -0.19. Looking at a longer timeline, since January 2020, the average 90-day correlation coefficient between the two is just -0.14, and it once rose to +0.22 in November 2024. Bitcoin also shows no significant correlation with U.S. Treasury yields, indicating its movements are largely driven by its own factors. Technically, the DXY has reclaimed the Ichimoku cloud, but has not yet broken through the 101.80 resistance level. A breakout could end the sideways consolidation that has persisted since May 2025 and trigger an accelerated rally.

Bitcoin retail investor demand has fallen rapidly, reflecting the short-term inflow and subsequent withdrawal of small capital.

Crypto analyst Darkfost’s data shows that demand from Bitcoin retail investors (trading volumes between $0 and $10,000) has rapidly faded during this latest BTC rally, with the 30-day change rate shifting from over 17% to -3.5%. Darkfost notes that this indicates retail investors tend to engage in quick in-and-out trades at current market highs, which could impact BTC’s short-term volatility.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $66.2 million, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $2.8 million.

According to Farside’s monitoring, on September 29, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a total net inflow of $66.2 million, broken down as: BlackRock’s IBIT: +$51.1 million; ARK’s ARKB: +$33.2 million; Bitwise’s BITB: -$18.1 million; while Fidelity’s FBTC, Invesco’s BTCO, Franklin’s EZBC, Valkyrie’s BRRR, VanEck’s HODL, WisdomTree’s BTCW, Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, Grayscale’s GBTC, and BTC saw no inflows or outflows. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $2.8 million yesterday, with details: Grayscale’s ETH: +$12.8 million; BlackRock’s ETHA: -$8.9 million; Fidelity’s FETH: -$6.7 million; and BlackRock’s ETHB, Bitwise’s ETHW, 21Shares’ TETH, VanEck’s ETHV, Invesco’s QETH, Franklin’s EZET, Morgan Stanley’s MSSE, and Grayscale’s ETHE had no inflows or outflows.

SlowMist’s Yu Xian: North Korean hackers laundered cryptocurrency via cross-chain combinations of CoW Protocol and Chainflip, ultimately converting the funds to Bitcoin (BTC).

SlowMist founder Yu Xian tweeted that SlowMist TrackAgent has discovered North Korean hackers used a combination of CoW Protocol and Chainflip to cross-chain launder stolen funds from Bitget. The hackers’ automated scripts create orders via CoW Protocol, setting the order’s receiving address to a pre-prepared Chainflip Deposit-related contract address; once the order is filled, the assets are cross-chained on Chainflip and converted to BTC. Yu Xian cited an example: In one related transaction, the hacker first created an order on CoW Protocol, which was then completed. The receiving address 0xcEAE932A8bEE3a81a681A59890cb26d3110FDb65 corresponds to the Chainflip Deposit Contract, and Chainflip records show the cross-chain assets were ultimately transferred to the BTC address bc1qa0rjjhyu9pg3adgpel4v7dct6a8606az863jyh. Yu Xian previously noted that Chainflip has been blocking North Korean hackers’ money laundering attempts, but the laundering group uses automated scripts to split funds into small amounts, immediately switches to other cross-chain paths when blocked by risk controls, eventually converts the funds to BTC, and further obfuscates them via CoinJoin. He described this process as an "evolving money laundering operation".

A prominent trader says Bitcoin’s current trend is different from its 2023 performance, and remains bullish, targeting the $90,000 range.

Prominent crypto trader Killa posted a note stating that the market is currently drawing parallels between Bitcoin’s price action and its pullback after the 2023 rally to $25,000, though the two market structures are markedly different. In 2023, BTC only formed equal highs around $25,000, failing to close sustainably above that level before plunging sharply. By contrast, BTC has now formed higher highs on the weekly timeframe and is consolidating above its prior resistance level post-breakout. Additionally, the last bear market saw a maximum drawdown of roughly 77%, while this cycle’s stands at around 54%. Killa argues that, accounting for diminishing returns and progressively smaller pullback magnitudes, the main correction in this bull cycle could be closer to 10% to 15%, corresponding to roughly $78,000 and $74,000 respectively. He noted that even if Bitcoin repeats a similar pattern, it would not necessarily breach previous lows as sharply as it did in 2023. Open interest has now reset, prices remain above prior highs, and the market structure looks healthy to him. Killa has not positioned for a major pullback and still targets the $90,000 range.

Bitcoin traders are snapping up call options with strike prices above $90,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $83,238. However, options traders are increasingly positioning for a price breakout above $90,000, with $95,000 and $100,000 also popular strike prices. Institutional fund inflows are also improving: Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows for eight consecutive days, with $31 million flowing in yesterday. This positioning indicates that even amid weak short-term Bitcoin sentiment, upside demand remains active.

Peter Brandt Raises Bitcoin’s Next Cycle Top Forecast to $300,000–$600,000

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who accurately predicted the 2018 Bitcoin crash, stated, "We have likely already seen the cycle low and are now entering a new Bitcoin bull cycle." However, Brandt noted this does not mean the market will avoid a sharp pullback first. He is monitoring the possibility of a correction to the $65,000–$66,000 range in early October. Brandt said: "Of course, there’s a risk that too many people are chasing the rally now. They’ve already bought into the idea that Bitcoin’s low is in and are piling into this upward move." He believes a pullback could wash out these late buyers chasing gains, while also offering investors an opportunity to build positions. Brandt also raised his forecast for Bitcoin’s next cycle top, revising his end-2029 target range from the $250,000–$300,000 he set in July this year to $300,000–$600,000. He added: "This bull cycle is very likely to hit $500,000." In Brandt’s view, it’s not impossible for Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030, but even if that target isn’t met, it won’t affect his trading logic. Brandt also said he hasn’t deployed all the funds he plans to allocate to Bitcoin into the market yet. If Bitcoin hits his expected high by 2029, he believes allocating just 70% of his capital to the market and capturing 70% of the rally’s gains would be sufficient.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $83,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $83,000, currently trading at $83,025, with its 24-hour price gain narrowing to 0.11%.

HANetf Launches World's First Euro-Hedged Bitcoin Fund

According to The Wall Street Journal, HANetf has launched the world’s first euro-hedged Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP), noting that demand from its European client base is shifting. While Bitcoin is a digital currency, it is typically priced in U.S. dollars, which creates additional foreign exchange risks for investors seeking to reduce their dollar exposure. As Bitcoin becomes increasingly integrated into institutional portfolios, some investors may prefer to avoid adding further dollar risk on top of their existing exposures to U.S. dollar-denominated assets like U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and oil.

Bitcoin ETFs See $42.99M Inflow, Ethereum ETFs Attract $15.37M in Single Day

Sept 29 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +511 $BTC(+$42.99M)?? 7D NetFlow: +15,196 $BTC(+$1.28B)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +5,648 $ETH(+$15.37M)?? 7D NetFlow: +168,733 $ETH(+$459.29M)??

Hyperliquid has launched the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index Contract (BVIV), supporting up to 5x leverage.

Hyperliquid has now launched the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) contract, which supports up to 5x leverage and is deployed by Markets.xyz.

Bitcoin pioneer Adam Back’s multiple businesses have suffered setbacks: BSTR has been ordered to pay a $15 million "termination fee"

According to Bloomberg, Adam Back has long held a uniquely revered status in the Bitcoin ecosystem. A pioneering cryptographer whose work was cited by Satoshi Nakamoto, he has long been rumored to be Bitcoin’s mysterious founder. But as the crypto industry undergoes another major shakeup, multiple Bitcoin-related businesses linked to him are facing mounting pressure. A Bitcoin reserve firm he championed saw its merger with a Cantor Fitzgerald-backed SPAC collapse; a Bitcoin mining business he co-founded is mired in legal disputes; and a $320 million hack targeting a Bitcoin-linked blockchain has hit Blockstream—Back’s firm and one of the oldest infrastructure players in the crypto space. The Bitcoin custody project BSTR Holdings, which he led, terminated its merger with a SPAC under Cantor Fitzgerald, and BSTR was ordered to pay a $15 million termination fee. Blockstream Mining, the Bitcoin mining venture he co-founded and holds a minority stake in, has faced multiple lawsuits against partner Exacore since spinning off from Blockstream, accused of defaulting on equipment payments, electricity bills, and customer deposits, with total related financing amounting to roughly $2 billion. Separately, the Liquid Network, a Bitcoin sidechain launched by Blockstream, was hacked, with around 4,000 BTC stolen; 3,400 have been returned, leaving the hacker holding roughly $47 million worth of Bitcoin.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s open interest positions stand at their lowest level since March, making its rise less vulnerable to leverage liquidations.

Glassnode’s report notes that Bitcoin is rallying at lower leverage levels. The cryptocurrency’s price has surged 35% from its August low, while coin-denominated open interest has fallen nearly 20%. This brings open interest to its lowest point since March, potentially making the current rally less susceptible to leverage liquidations.

Data: Bitcoin supply on exchanges fell by 35,800 coins last week, with ETF inflows driving the tightening of supply.

Santiment Intelligence noted in a post that roughly $2.4 billion in inflows to Bitcoin spot ETFs last week drove BTC out of trading platforms, signaling tightening market supply. Santiment data shows that between September 20 and September 27, BTC supply on trading platforms fell by around 35,800 coins to 1.325 million, with net flow figures aligning with this downward trend. By contrast, in the prior week (September 13 to September 20), BTC holdings on trading platforms rose by nearly 20,000 coins. Combined over the two weeks, around 15,900 BTC have left trading platforms, though current platform supply remains above all levels seen in July. Notably, on September 22 alone, BTC supply dropped by roughly 26,700 coins—about twice the average daily outflow—indicating this shift was not merely due to address reclassification. Santiment added that more than half of last week’s decline in BTC supply on trading platforms had seen a reverse shift in the prior week, noting that ETF fund flows are a key background factor driving recent changes in BTC supply.

Analysis: Bitcoin long-term holders' MVRV ratio rebounds to 1.35, exiting the mild pressure zone.

，CryptoQuant 分析师 Zizcrypto 发文表示，调整后长期持有者（LTH）MVRV 指标已从浅度压力区间恢复，目前重新回到盈利状态。数据显示，6 个月至 10 年持币周期长期持有者群体的调整后 MVRV 在今年 4 月时持续压缩并位于 1.0 上方。MVRV 1.0 代表该群体整体盈亏平衡线，高于 1.0 意味着处于未实现盈利状态，低于 1.0 则代表未实现亏损。6 月至 8 月期间，该指标曾 5 次跌破 1.0，并于 6 月 30 日触及 2026 年低点约 0.94，当时 BTC 价格约为 5.85 万美元，而该群体实现价格基准约为 6.2 万美元，低于盈亏平衡线约 6%。不过，Zizcrypto 表示，此次压力持续时间和幅度均较有限，指标始终接近 1.0，并未进入 2019 年及 2022-2023 年期间长期持有者深度亏损阶段。截至 9 月 27 日，调整后 LTH MVRV 已恢复至约 1.35，BTC 价格约 8.45 万美元，而长期持有者实现价格约 6.27 万美元，现货价格较该成本基础高出约 35%。6 个月至 10 年持币周期长期持有者群体已走出浅度低于 1.0 的压力阶段，重新进入整体盈利状态，这更像是一次健康调整后的恢复，而非深度或持续性的亏损周期。

Bitcoin surges past $84,000, up 0.76% on the day.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through $84,000, currently trading at $84,007.00, with a 0.76% daily gain.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net inflows for eight consecutive days, adding $31 million yesterday.

According to Farside data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the eighth consecutive trading day yesterday, totaling $31 million.

CoinShares: SEC's innovation exemptions will continue to push TradeFi on-chain, but high yields are still weighing on Bitcoin.

In its latest report, CoinShares stated that the U.S. CLARITY Act’s failure to advance in the Senate has cooled short-term expectations for crypto market structure legislation, though integration between traditional finance and on-chain infrastructure persists. The report argues that regulatory setbacks have not halted corporate investment in payments, stablecoin distribution, and tokenized securities, with the market continuing its institutionalization process via practical business collaborations. CoinShares highlighted recent TradeFi-related developments in crypto, including the NYSE and Blockchain.com exploring 24-hour trading channels for tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, ICE establishing a two-way data partnership with Blockchain.com, and Circle expanding its five-year collaboration with Binance while securing $100 million in strategic investment to boost USDC distribution. The firm believes these moves, combined with the SEC’s recent innovation exemptions, will further drive the on-chain migration of trading, payment, and clearing infrastructure. Market performance indicates crypto assets have temporarily weathered dual pressures from regulation and interest rates. Per CoinShares’ data, its blockchain stock index rose 1.9% last week, while Bitcoin gained 3.8%. However, the U.S. dollar hit an eight-week high, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields topped 5.2%, and oil prices remain supported by Middle East tensions, leaving the macro environment unfavorable for liquidity-sensitive assets.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin’s pullback is a normal retracement, and altcoin divergence may continue until this week’s data releases.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded above 5.2% overnight, hitting its highest level since 2007 and weighing broadly on global risk assets. Bitcoin pulled back to around $83,000, while altcoins saw steeper declines. In response, Cloud, chief analyst at Huobi HTX, stated that this pullback is more of a normal retracement following a rally and does not yet mark the start of a trend reversal. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields primarily suppress valuations, with limited impact on overall liquidity; the crypto market’s own capital structure and holding costs remain intact. This current dip appears more like position squaring ahead of key economic data releases. A key risk to watch is the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins. During periods of marginal liquidity tightening, capital tends to flow toward the most established, high-certainty top assets. Altcoins lack inflows of new capital and carry higher leverage, which amplifies their pullbacks. This divergence is likely to persist ahead of this week’s PCE and non-farm payrolls data releases. If the data comes in below expectations, altcoins will see greater upside flexibility but also higher risks; if the data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin’s relative strength will stand out more. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize at its key support level will be the main signal to determine if this retracement has ended. Note: This article does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.

Bitcoin has pulled back, triggering sharp declines in altcoins. Q dropped over 23%, while ONDO and NEAR each fell more than 13%.

According to HTX market data, as Bitcoin pulled back below $83,000, altcoins saw sharp declines. Specifics include: Q trades at $0.022159, down 23.07% in 24 hours; INX at $0.0057, down 21.52%; QNT at $207.12, down 20.39%; FARTCOIN at $0.1623, down 15.60%; USELESS at $0.22742, down 14.86%; SEI at $0.07364, down 13.90%; RAY at $1.8417, down 13.83%; ONDO at $0.4964, down 13.72%; ARB at $0.19367, down 13.33%; and NEAR at $4.604, down 13.07% over the same period.

Analysis: Spot Traders Shift to Altcoins, Altcoin Trading Volume Hits Nearly 4 Times That of Bitcoin

Glassnode’s report indicates that spot traders are shifting to the altcoin market, with total altcoin spot trading volume now nearly four times that of Bitcoin, hitting the highest level since September 2025. The on-chain analytics firm further stated that traders’ demand for higher-risk assets typically aligns with Bitcoin’s local, phased tops.

Bitcoin ETFs see $145.71M inflow, Ethereum ETFs attract $55.12M as institutional demand strengthens

Sept 28 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +1,740 $BTC(+$145.71M)?? 7D NetFlow: +29,298 $BTC(+$2.45B)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +20,447 $ETH(+$55.12M)?? 7D NetFlow: +231,519 $ETH(+$624.1M)??

Bitget’s Bitcoin (BTC) withdrawals are now open, with processing running smoothly; the first batch of around 6,900 transactions has completed on-chain confirmation.

Bitget opened Bitcoin (BTC) withdrawal services as scheduled at 16:00 (UTC+8) today. In a community live stream, Bitget CEO Gracy shared the latest progress in the initial recovery phase: BTC withdrawal channels are operating smoothly, with the first batch of withdrawal requests processed and credited to users’ accounts. According to real-time data disclosed during the live stream, as of 16:50 (UTC+8), the platform has processed approximately 7,683 BTC withdrawal applications, totaling around 3,609 BTC, with no order backlog. Among these, roughly 6,946 withdrawal requests have been confirmed on the blockchain, while remaining applications are being processed in an orderly manner. Per the previously announced timeline, withdrawals for Ethereum (ETH) related networks will open at 16:00 (UTC+8) on September 29; withdrawals for Tether (USDT) related networks will open at 16:00 (UTC+8) on September 30; withdrawals for other tokens, fiat, and C2C services will resume gradually starting at 16:00 (UTC+8) on October 2.

Analysis: Bitcoin's short-term holders' MVRV ratio rises to its highest level since November 2025, suggesting imminent profit-taking.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reports that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) has reached its highest level since November 2025. Momentum accelerated sharply between August and September, mainly driven by the price breaking through the STH cost benchmark of roughly $73,100. Current data shows the STH MVRV stands at 1.15, meaning short-term holders hold an average unrealized profit of around 15% and have returned above the realized value threshold. Darkfost emphasized this level requires close monitoring, as it may prompt short-term holders to start taking profits.

Following the opening of Bitget’s BTC withdrawal portal, 2,042.28 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $169 million, have been transferred out.

On-chain analyst Ai Yi (Twitter handle @ai_9684xtpa) reported that following Bitget’s opening of its BTC withdrawal portal, the exchange’s total protection fund of 5,500 BTC has been flowing in batches into its hot wallet to facilitate withdrawals. As of now, 2,042.28 BTC (valued at roughly $169 million) has been transferred, with 3,457.72 BTC remaining on-chain. However, since these tokens were moved in advance, the analyst emphasized that this figure does not represent the actual amount of user withdrawals.

Analyst: Bitcoin's net outflow from centralized exchanges (CEX) hits a new high in nearly a year, but futures buying remains cautious

As Bitcoin fluctuates near $83,000, a notable contraction has emerged in on-chain spot supply. According to a new report from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., as of September 27, the 7-day average of net BTC outflows from exchanges has risen to 16,100 BTC per day, the strongest level since early October 2025. On September 20, the 7-day average of net flows to trading platforms still stood at an inflow of 7,300 BTC per day; by September 22, the flow reversed, and net outflows have since continued to expand. Net outflows from trading platforms do not directly equate to new buying orders, but they signal a reduction in Bitcoin supply available for immediate trading, typically seen as a potential indicator of hoarding or transfer to long-term custody. However, the derivatives market has not provided equally strong confirmation of an upward trend. Adler’s Bitcoin Position Index shows that the 30-day average advantage of perpetual contract buyers has dropped from 7.6 on August 27 to -1.4 on September 28, and has remained below the zero threshold since September 23. This metric reflects the activity difference between buyers and sellers in the futures market; a negative value means longs have not taken the upper hand for now, but -1.4 remains close to the neutral range, with no significant expansion of short positions’ advantage. Analysts note that if net outflows from trading platforms persist and the Position Index rebounds back above zero, Bitcoin’s supply contraction will gain stronger trend confirmation. If net flows reverse back to inflows while futures buying remains weak, an increase in tradable Bitcoin on trading platforms will become a short-term risk.

Capital B increases its Bitcoin holdings by 13, bringing its total position to 3,538 Bitcoins.

French Bitcoin treasury firm Capital B announced it purchased 13 BTC for 970,000 euros, bringing its total holdings to 3,538 BTC.

Bitcoin falls below $83,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $83,000, currently trading at $82,967, with a 1.79% drop in the past 24 hours.

Omnity Network announces it is ceasing operations, with its Bitcoin DeFi products set to shut down within 30 days.

According to official announcements, Omnity Network has announced it will gradually cease operations due to depleted operating funds. The platform’s Bitcoin DeFi products, RichSwap and Satsman, will be shut down within the next 30 days. The team urged RichSwap liquidity providers to withdraw their liquidity as soon as possible, stating that it will upgrade smart contracts to remove existing lock-up restrictions, allowing users to access their funds without limitations. A detailed operational timeline and liquidity withdrawal guide will be released in the near future. Omnity added that support channels will remain open for 30 days during the transition period to assist users with relevant operations. Though the project is winding down, core team members will continue to support the Bitcoin ecosystem and plan to participate in its development through personal efforts and developer collaboration organizations.

Maji reduces Bitcoin long positions, with his account incurring a $1.42 million loss in nearly 24 hours.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, "Big Brother Ma Ji" (real name Huang Licheng) has reduced his Bitcoin long positions. His account suffered a $1.42 million loss in the past 24 hours, with profits shrinking to $1.62 million over the past seven days. His current positions are as follows: Ethereum (ETH) long positions worth approximately $92.62 million, with an unrealized loss of around $70,000; entry price: $2,671.16, liquidation price: $2,548.34. Bitcoin (BTC) long positions worth approximately $25.18 million, with an unrealized loss of around $50,000; entry price: $84,112.40, liquidation price: $70,059.66. HYPE long positions worth approximately $19.82 million, with an unrealized loss of around $650,000; entry price: $93.06, liquidation price: $70.43.

Bitcoin drops below $84,000, with a 0.32% decline in the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $84,000, with a 0.32% decline in the past 24 hours.

A certain crypto whale that had lain dormant for four years transferred 4,500 Bitcoin, valued at $378.79 million.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, a crypto whale that had been inactive for over four years transferred out 4,500 Bitcoin valued at $378.79 million.

Bitcoin has surpassed $85,000, while Ethereum has broken through $2,700.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through the $85,000 level, with a 0.75% 24-hour gain. Ethereum has surged past $2,700, posting a 0.2% rise over the same period.

Strive’s CEO, following in Michael Saylor’s footsteps, hinted in a post that he may add to his Bitcoin holdings next week.

Matt Cole, CEO of Bitcoin treasury firm Strive, posted the message “Turn amplification up some more,” hinting that the company will increase its Bitcoin holdings next week. The move follows the practice of Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury company. Both firms have a pattern of posting hints about Bitcoin purchases on Sundays, then announcing the exact size of the holdings addition on the following Monday. Earlier on September 21, Strive’s Cole disclosed that the firm bought 1,355 BTC for $107.7 million, at an average cost of $79,475 per coin, bringing its total BTC holdings to 26,355.

Viewpoint: After Bitcoin broke through $86,000, supply above this level is thin, leaving only a 23% upside potential to $125,000.

Bitfinex released a graphic analysis noting that if Bitcoin breaks through $86,000, market supply above that level will drop sharply, leaving only approximately 23% of upside to reach $125,000. Over 1 million BTC are currently concentrated in the $84,000–$86,000 range, forming a key short-term resistance level. Separately, Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded a cumulative net inflow of around $2.98 billion over the past seven trading sessions, as the market gradually absorbs this supply pressure. If BTC closes above $87,400 and ETF inflows persist, it will indicate that buyers have successfully absorbed current selling pressure, and the overhead supply wall may subsequently weaken.

Analysis: Bitcoin's macro pressure now hinges on oil prices, with US-Iran negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz being the key factor.

Bitfinex published a graphic analysis noting that Bitcoin’s current macro headwinds are primarily transmitted via oil prices, with oil’s trajectory hinging on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Last week’s breakthrough in the talks pushed crude prices down, easing inflationary pressure and in turn lessening the strain on risk assets from a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated U.S. Treasury yields. If negotiations stall, crude oil prices could rebound, intensifying market pressure through inflation, U.S. dollar, and bond yield channels. Thus, the current market needs to focus not only on Federal Reserve policy but also closely track developments in U.S.-Iran talks.

Michael Saylor has once again released updates on his Bitcoin tracker, potentially hinting at additional BTC purchases.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates on the firm’s Bitcoin tracker, stating, “Even more orange.” Per past patterns, the orange dots on the tracker represent Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase records, so this move may signal the company will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes to its Bitcoin holdings the day after such announcements.