Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Analyst: Bitcoin’s first "bottoming" signal has emerged, but this does not mean the end of the bear market.

Crypto analyst Moreno published a note stating that the Bitcoin market is now showing the first clear signs of a deeper market clearing phase. When Bitcoin’s UTXO profit/loss ratio is at a high level, most UTXO blocks remain profitable, typically reflecting the market still holds large unrealized gains and signals high profit-taking (distribution) pressure. Conversely, when this ratio falls to a lower range, overall profit levels contract, losses widen, and the market enters a deeper clearing and reset phase. The current reading fits this pattern. The ratio has now dropped into a range that has historically coincided with Bitcoin’s market bottoming phases, though this does not mean the market has completed bottoming. To confirm a stronger bottoming signal, the 365-day moving average needs to decline significantly further — a sign the market’s long-term profit structure is undergoing a full reset, not just a short-term oversold condition. In other words, Bitcoin may still face additional downward pressure before exiting its current bear market phase. Short squeezes and temporary rallies could still occur, especially if short positions become overly crowded. However, unless the overall profit/loss ratio establishes a sustainable improvement trend, these upward moves should not be viewed as a structural market reversal.

Recently, over 550,000 Bitcoin have flowed into deposit addresses of Binance and OKX, marking a new high since the 2023 bear market.

Crypto Quant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that as Bitcoin recently dipped below $60,000 again, a large number of investors have transferred their Bitcoin to exchanges. Data shows more than 220,000 BTC flowed into deposit addresses linked to Binance’s hot wallet, and over 330,000 BTC entered OKX-related deposit addresses, totaling over 550,000 BTC—marking the largest such inflow this year and the highest level since the 2023 bear market. Typically, when users plan to sell Bitcoin, they first transfer funds to deposit addresses before aggregating them into the exchange’s operational wallet. As such, this massive inflow reflects panic among some investors after Bitcoin tested the $60,000 threshold, with increased potential selling pressure. However, the data does not mean all these BTC have been sold; it only signals a rise in exchanges’ selling willingness.

Grayscale: Bitcoin bear market has two evolution paths, still bullish on crypto assets in the long term.

According to Grayscale’s latest research report, Bitcoin has pulled back more than 50% from its October 2025 peak of roughly $125,000, dropping below $60,000. The report frames this decline as a cyclical correction within Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend, not a reversal of its long-term trajectory. Grayscale notes that Bitcoin’s recent downward pressure stems from multiple factors: expectations of a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy, uncertainty over the legislative prospects of the CLARITY Act, balance sheet strains at crypto firm Strategy, and investor concerns about potential security risks from quantum computing. Notably, after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated hawkish Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, markets have shifted from pricing in interest rate cuts to expecting hikes this year—undermining Bitcoin’s investment thesis as an asset hedging against currency devaluation. Two core scenarios shape Bitcoin’s outlook: In the baseline case, if the CLARITY Act passes the Senate smoothly, Strategy improves its balance sheet, and the Fed pauses rate hikes, Bitcoin may have neared the bottom of this cycle. In the pessimistic scenario, if the bill fails to pass this year, digital asset firms continue deleveraging, and stubborn inflation forces the Fed to raise rates, Bitcoin prices could fall further. Still, given this bull run has been relatively moderate and institutional demand is more solid, this pullback is not expected to replicate the roughly 80% peak-to-trough decline seen in historical cycles. Grayscale added that it remains bullish on the long-term growth prospects of public blockchains and digital assets over the next decade.

Recent whale liquidation threshold: If Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fall below $58,000, a certain whale's $16.3 million long position will be liquidated.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, an address (0x9311) on Hyperliquid holds a heavily leveraged long position on Bitcoin. Currently, it has opened a 40x long position of approximately 272.7 BTC, with a nominal value of around $16.3 million, at an average entry price of roughly $60,519, and a liquidation price of $57,640. Bitcoin is currently trading at $59,720, and this long position has an unrealized loss of about $210,000 (-50%). The whale’s liquidation line is only ~3.5% (roughly $2,085) away from the current price, making it the BTC address with the closest liquidation level among all whales holding tens of millions in positions on Hyperliquid. If Bitcoin falls another ~3.5% from current levels, breaking below $57,640 (the $58,000 threshold), this $16.3 million long position will trigger forced liquidation. Amid Bitcoin’s continued weakness in recent trading, the address added to its losing position to average down its entry cost. The latest addition occurred on June 29, when it opened additional long positions at $59,347; the position has been gradually built up since June 24 via thousands of trades. HyperInsight Bot is now live. Add @HyperInsightBot to your TG group and set it as an admin (enable message sending permission) to automatically sync on-chain news.

Bitcoin falls below $59,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $59,000, with a 2.04% decline over the past 24 hours.

Yilihua: July and August will be the best time to buy the dip, and this will be Bitcoin’s final major pullback.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yilihua stated, “This marks the third wave of decline since 1011. Per wave theory and cycle patterns, this will be Bitcoin’s final major downturn. The key factors driving Bitcoin’s bottom price that everyone is concerned about are US stocks and MicroStrategy. It remains unclear whether the Federal Reserve’s CPI concerns will shift expectations for interest rate cuts or even hikes, which could trigger sustained pullbacks in US equities. Additionally, past bear market tails often witness black swan events or major blowups, which have not materialized this time and require close monitoring. Calculated based on Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000, a 60% drop would reach $51,000, while a 66% decline would hit $43,000. Either way, July to August should be the final window—both the best time to buy the dip and the most worthwhile trading opportunity in the next three years.”

Samson Mow asserts that Bitcoin has reached its bottom, as analysts’ views on the market outlook have grown increasingly divergent.

Jan3 CEO Samson Mow today asserted that Bitcoin has reached its bottom. His core argument is that Bitcoin hit its then all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving, an anomaly indicating the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated, rendering historically reliable timing patterns no longer applicable. “Even if you believe in the cycle, you should conclude that it has accelerated.” However, the market is far from reaching a consensus: Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes the bottom is more likely at $55,000, with a time window between August and October; BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bearish, predicting Bitcoin will hit roughly $40,000 within six months; senior analyst James Van Straten notes that Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average, with on-chain data suggesting the $50,000–$54,000 range could be the next key battleground. Since 2011, every major Bitcoin bear market has only confirmed its cycle bottom after falling below its realized price, and this signal has not yet emerged in the current cycle.

Galaxy CEO: MicroStrategy has evolved into a key confidence signal for the overall Bitcoin market, with $59,000 serving as a critical support level.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin’s recent decline is a "confidence collapse triggered by Strategy". The issue extends beyond Bitcoin’s price itself: concerns over Strategy’s financing model are spreading across the market. As the world’s largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin, Strategy’s stocks and senior securities have become key metrics for traders to gauge Bitcoin market risk. Earlier, the company’s Bitcoin flywheel effect came under pressure, with its stock once trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings—meaning its years-long reliance on the "issuing stock at a premium to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases" model is now facing challenges. Novogratz bluntly noted that STRC (Strategy’s ticker) is trading weakly, and it should have held steady around $100. Currently, Strategy’s annual dividend obligations have risen to roughly $1.2 billion, and shrinking cash reserves have cut the dividend coverage period to just about 14 months. On the macro front, Bitcoin also faces pressure. Novogratz summed up the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin": hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening US dollar are suppressing demand for risk assets. Technically, the $59,000 to $60,000 range has become a critical support level for Bitcoin; a break below could open downside space to $45,000. Novogratz also admitted the current situation is complex, with an equal 50/50 probability of a rebound or deep correction. ETF outflows, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the market’s fragile sentiment. Today, Strategy’s balance sheet health, STRC’s price performance, and cash position are no longer just company-level issues—they have evolved into a confidence signal for the entire Bitcoin market.

Michael Saylor has once again released updates for his Bitcoin Tracker, potentially signaling another round of BTC accumulation.

Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, has once again shared updates on Bitcoin Tracker, remarking, “We are gonna need more charts.” Per historical trends, MicroStrategy typically announces increases to its Bitcoin holdings the day after such statements.

Bitcoin may record a historically rare decline over two consecutive quarters.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 over the weekend, logging a roughly 7% decline in the past week. As the second quarter draws to a close, Bitcoin is on track to post a roughly 12% quarterly drop, following a 22% fall in the first quarter, which would mark a rare back-to-back quarterly loss in its history. Meanwhile, altcoins have generally seen steeper declines than Bitcoin: Ethereum fell around 9.5% in the past week, Dogecoin dropped 11.7%, HYPE slipped 10.6%, XRP declined 8.7%, Solana fell 3.5%, and TRON saw a roughly 1.5% drop. Analysts attribute the market’s ongoing pressure to multiple factors, including sustained capital flows into AI-driven semiconductor and memory chip sectors, persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, and the U.S. Dollar Index staying at high levels. The market will watch closely for ETF capital flows and demand improvements in the third quarter to judge whether the crypto market can shake off its weak performance in the first half of the year.

Head of Grayscale Research advises Strategy to sell over $3 billion worth of Bitcoin to improve its capital structure and restore market confidence.

Grayscale Research Head of Research Zach Pandl stated that instead of raising STRC preferred stock dividend rates by 50 basis points, it would be better to sell over $30 billion worth of Bitcoin to fulfill cash payment obligations and restore market confidence. Spot On Chain’s analysis notes that as an institutional research figure, Zach Pandl’s public recommendation that Strategy sell over $30 billion in BTC carries certain indicator significance. If Strategy ultimately proceeds with large-scale sales, it will exert considerable selling pressure on the market and may undermine the narrative of the firm’s continuous Bitcoin hoarding. This perspective also reflects market concerns over Strategy’s capital structure and the sustainability of its highly Bitcoin-reliant balance sheet. Going forward, attention should be paid to Strategy’s official response and whether actual Bitcoin transfers are detected in its on-chain wallets.

This current Bitcoin bear market has lasted 237 days, marking the fourth-longest in history, but its decline is the smallest of any previous cycle.

According to a new study from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has experienced seven bear markets since 2014. CoinGecko defines a bear market as a period where Bitcoin’s closing price remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for more than 30 consecutive days. Data shows that as of June 28, 2026, the current 2025-2026 bear market has lasted 237 days, making it the fourth-longest in history. Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high of roughly $124,800 in January 2025, hitting a low of approximately $58,115 on June 25, with a maximum drawdown of 53.43% — the smallest decline of any bear market on record. CoinGecko attributes the relatively mild drop in this cycle to factors including increased institutional participation, maturing market infrastructure, and macroeconomic factors such as interest rate fluctuations and capital flows to artificial intelligence. By contrast, the three bear markets triggered by major industry events in 2014-2015, 2018-2019, and 2022-2023 all saw maximum declines ranging from 76.7% to 83.6%. CoinGecko notes that historical data shows Bitcoin typically takes 65 to 166 days to reclaim its 200-day SMA after confirming a temporary bottom. If the June 25 low holds, Bitcoin could retake the average as early as the end of August this year, though a longer recovery period is not ruled out.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s UTXO metric triggers the first capitulation signal of this bear market, potentially entering a bottoming phase.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has stated that Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) profit/loss ratio has fallen to its lowest level since the current bear market, indicating the market is entering a broader "capitulation" phase — the first time this indicator has sent such a signal during the ongoing correction. Darkfost pointed out that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss has reached a significant level; historically, this stage often corresponds to bear market bottom zones, presenting favorable allocation opportunities for long-term investors. The last time the indicator hit a similar low was in mid-2023, when Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $26,000. Another analyst, DurdenBTC, also noted that the UTXO bottom signal has been triggered. The indicator has successfully captured every market bottom since 2016, though actual bottom formation still requires time, and short-term market sentiment may remain subdued. Darkfost further added that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders is gradually turning negative, showing long-term holders are starting to capitulate, while the current correction is mainly driven by short-term holders transferring large volumes of Bitcoin to exchanges. On-chain analytics firm Swissblock believes Bitcoin has largely completed the first stage of its decline and is now in the bottom-building phase, with prices stabilizing but market momentum still weak. Additionally, risk aversion has risen amid U.S. weekend airstrikes on Iranian targets. Bitcoin briefly fell to $59,800 before rebounding to around $60,100.

Analysis: Weak demand from U.S. institutions may keep Bitcoin under pressure and range-bound in the short term.

Bitfire Group stated in its latest market commentary that Bitcoin’s negative premium on Coinbase has continued to widen, signaling persistent weakness in U.S. institutional buying. Meanwhile, Strategy’s income preferred stock (ticker: STRC) briefly dipped below $84. Though there is no immediate liquidation risk, market concerns over whether the firm will need to sell Bitcoin continue to weigh on sentiment. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with short-term MAs in a bearish alignment. The daily RSI stands at around 40—weak but not yet in oversold territory. The overall Bollinger Bands are sloping downward, with the middle band acting as strong resistance. Bitfire Group believes that with a lack of sustained bullish momentum and bears still holding the upper hand, Bitcoin will likely continue fluctuating below resistance levels in the short term, further testing actual buying demand on the downside. Key resistance levels are at $64,650, $66,900, and $69,800, while the main support level is at $63,500.

Crypto stocks have fallen far more sharply than large-cap tech stocks: Coinbase and Circle have declined 69% and 72% respectively from their peaks, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $60,000, exacerbating bearish sentiment.

Amid a broad sell-off in tech stocks, crypto-related equities have seen particularly steep declines, with their divergence from the broader market continuing to widen. Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) have fallen 69% and 72% respectively from their all-time highs, far outpacing the 48% to 57% pullbacks of major tech stocks including Oracle, Salesforce, Netflix, and Palantir. By comparison, the S&P 500 index has dropped just 3.5% from its recent peak. Fundamentally, Coinbase’s first-quarter results missed Wall Street estimates by a wide margin: revenue fell 21% quarter-over-quarter, posting a loss of $1.49 per share, while analysts had previously projected earnings of $0.27 per share. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 this week, down more than 54% from its October peak. Ethereum also dropped to around $1,500, roughly 69% lower than its record high last year, as market sentiment continues to deteriorate. In its mid-year outlook report, 21Shares cut its 2026 crypto market forecast, noting that digital asset price performance is significantly lagging behind the sector’s fundamentals. The firm pointed out that institutional adoption continues to deepen, with stablecoins, asset tokenization, and prediction markets all maintaining strong growth momentum, but Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle remains the dominant driver of price movements. The report also acknowledged a prior misjudgment: “Bitcoin’s cycle is evolving, but it has not broken,” retracting its earlier claim that the four-year cycle was obsolete. Analysts argue that the sharp pullback in crypto equities reflects a combination of three pressures: overall weakness in the digital asset market, uncertainty surrounding structural legislation for the U.S. crypto market, and the potential impact of AI technology on existing business models.

Fidelity refutes the claim that Bitcoin halving undermines the cryptocurrency’s security: Miners’ daily revenue has risen from $26,300 to $40.2 million.

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released a research report addressing concerns that Bitcoin’s halving will long-term weaken the network’s security. The report’s author, Fidelity research analyst Daniel Gray, noted that Bitcoin network security does not solely depend on block rewards; transaction fees, market incentives, and other economic forces also continuously motivate miners to maintain network security, making sustained attacks prohibitively costly. On the data front, Gray pointed out that while block subsidies have continued to decline, the rise in Bitcoin’s price has largely offset this impact. Miners’ average daily revenue has surged from roughly $26,300 during Bitcoin’s first halving cycle to over $40.2 million today. He wrote: “Despite the decline in issuance, miner incentives—and by extension, network security—have historically strengthened alongside Bitcoin’s price growth.” Since Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April 2024, miners’ per-block subsidy has dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. However, the report’s optimistic conclusion stands in sharp contrast to the reality of publicly traded mining companies. Multiple industry analysts have described the current period as one of the most challenging mining environments on record, driven by concurrent declines in block rewards, rising operating costs, and intensifying competition. In response, several mining firms have begun transitioning to AI and high-performance computing sectors, leveraging their existing power infrastructure to meet AI computing demand. VanEck estimates that public mining companies may need to raise up to $50 billion in additional capital to fully transition to AI infrastructure, though AI data centers have far higher requirements for facility standards, cooling, power redundancy, and networks than traditional Bitcoin mines, making the transition’s difficulty non-negligible.

Analysis: Retail investors appear to be shifting funds from gold and Bitcoin to semiconductor stocks.

The Kobeissi Letter stated that retail investors appear to be shifting away from gold and Bitcoin toward semiconductor stocks. Data shows that since April, U.S. gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a combined net outflow of $12 billion; over the same timeframe, U.S. semiconductor ETFs have pulled in a total of $20 billion in inflows. This trend accelerated in mid-May, with outflows from gold and Bitcoin funds surging more than threefold, while inflows into semiconductor ETFs doubled. On the price front, GLD, the largest U.S. gold ETF, has declined 13% since early April, while IBIT, the largest Bitcoin ETF, has fallen 12% over the same period. By contrast, semiconductor ETFs SOXX and SMH have gained 81% and 60% respectively. Retail investors are driving the market in an unprecedented manner.

The probability that Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 this year has risen to 63%.

Prediction market platform Polymarket has seen the probability of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 this year rise to 63%, up from 51% as of June 16. Separately, the odds of Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 stand at 30%, while the probability of it climbing to $70,000 is 67%.

The probability that Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 this year has risen to 63%.

Prediction market platform Polymarket now puts the probability of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 this year at 63%, up from 51% as of June 16. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 is 30%, while the chance of it rising to $70,000 stands at 67%.

Strategy’s mNAV falls below 1, its market valuation is now lower than the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Strategy (MSTR) has seen its modified net asset value (mNAV) fall below 1, indicating the market is currently valuing the company at less than the worth of its Bitcoin holdings. This is unusual for Michael Saylor-led Strategy. For years, investors have priced Strategy at a premium to its Bitcoin reserves, giving the company flexible access to capital when needed—a advantage Saylor and his team have leveraged heavily. Currently, Strategy’s share price has dropped to around $82, roughly 85% lower than its November 2024 all-time high, bringing its enterprise value to approximately $50.4 billion. Meanwhile, with Bitcoin trading at about $60,000, the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings stands at roughly $51.1 billion. That means the market is now valuing the entire company at less than the value of its Bitcoin assets. At this valuation level, issuing new shares would be dilutive for Strategy, as the company would effectively sell equity at a discount to its underlying asset value. While this does not bar Strategy from continuing to issue new shares, raising capital at current valuations could spark more criticism. The firm’s recent Bitcoin purchases have already diluted common shareholders and drawn community backlash. Market concerns have grown that Strategy is increasingly resembling a closed-end fund rather than an operating company. Such vehicles typically trade at a premium to their underlying Bitcoin holdings when demand is strong, but can trade at persistent discounts once investor sentiment weakens. However, unlike traditional closed-end trusts, Strategy still retains multiple tools: issuing debt or equity when it is accretive, redeeming or refinancing securities, generating operating cash flow through its software business, and actively managing its capital structure.

Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for 40 consecutive days, with purchasing power in the U.S. market remaining sluggish.

According to Coinglass data, Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has remained in negative premium for 40 consecutive days, currently standing at -0.1569%, reflecting sustained weak purchasing power in the U.S. market. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the gap between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and the global average market price. A negative premium typically signals heavy selling pressure in the U.S. market, declining investor risk appetite, rising market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.7873 billion.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a combined net outflow of $1.7873 billion this week. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net outflow of $1.3035 billion, Fidelity’s FBTC recorded a net outflow of $314.9 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC had a net outflow of $135.3 million. Meanwhile, some ETFs registered net inflows: BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $71.7 million, and MSBT posted a net inflow of $26.2 million.

Billionaire Jeremy Grantham: Bitcoin won’t suddenly go to zero, but will quietly fade away.

According to CNBC, billionaire investor and GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham has once again criticized bitcoin, labeling it a "useless speculative" asset with no intrinsic value, and predicting it will gradually become irrelevant over the next several years or even decades. Grantham said, "It will die out, not with a bang, but quietly." He noted that bitcoin is not a stable form of value, having halved for no clear reason even in a strong economic environment, making it unreliable as a store of value. Grantham also pointed out that gold, even after retreating from its highs over the same period, has still posted solid gains. He added that bitcoin has neither proven itself as a useful speculative asset nor delivered real-world utility. "People don't use bitcoin for serious transactions, nor do they use it to pay for dinner or supermarket groceries; its role is to let criminals transfer funds," he stated. Bitcoin has long been known for severe bear market drawdowns, having dropped at least 70% from its peak in every cycle. Currently, bitcoin is down roughly 52% from its October high, hovering around $60,000, and many investors believe the current price slump could persist for several more months.

Should Bitcoin surge past $62,000, total short liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will hit $915 million.

According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin breaks through $62,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will hit $915 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin drops below $59,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $697 million. BlockBeats Note: The liquidation chart does not show the exact number of pending liquidation contracts or the precise value of liquidated contracts. The bars on the chart instead represent the relative importance of each liquidation cluster compared to adjacent clusters—i.e., their intensity. As such, the chart illustrates how severely a given price level for the underlying asset will be impacted. A higher "liquidation bar" signals that once the price hits that level, it will trigger a more pronounced reaction driven by liquidity waves.

Cathie Wood: AI has attracted massive investment interest, but cannot replace Bitcoin’s wealth-preservation attributes.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated in a post that capital outflows from more globally unstable countries will further drive up Bitcoin and other digital assets. AI has kicked off a technological revolution and rightfully deserves massive attention from the investment world. However, she argues that AI cannot serve as an insurance tool for wealth preservation, which is exactly what many people around the globe are currently seeking.

Ripple CEO: Still bullish on Bitcoin, but Strategy's preferred stock financing model has harmed the crypto market.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse told CNBC in an interview that he remains bullish on Bitcoin, but believes Strategy’s model of buying Bitcoin via preferred stock financing has harmed the crypto market. “Financial engineering does not drive long-term value,” Garlinghouse said, adding that the long-term value of any digital asset comes from its utility. He also noted, “Michael Saylor’s team hasn’t focused on the right things, which is hurting the overall market.” Garlinghouse’s criticism centers on the financing mechanism Strategy uses to accumulate Bitcoin. Over the past year, Strategy has raised funds by issuing preferred stock to continue purchasing Bitcoin. Its STRC stock carries an 11.5% annual dividend yield and was designed to trade near $100. Garlinghouse pointed out that STRC is currently about 25% below that level, calling it a “harsh rejection” of the strategy. STRC hit an all-time low on Thursday, dipping roughly 26% below its face value at one point. Meanwhile, Strategy’s common shares fell to their lowest since February 2024, closing at around $82 on Friday; Bitcoin, meanwhile, dropped below $59,000. This week, Strategy’s financing model has faced more pressure. CryptoQuant advised Strategy to pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild cash reserves. STRC’s dividend coverage period has shrunk from over 7 years to roughly 14 months. When STRC falls below $100, the mechanism where the company issues stock to buy Bitcoin stalls, which is why the firm suspended that mechanism. Mark Palmer, an analyst at Benchmark-StoneX, argued that Strategy’s financing engine has merely become “less efficient” rather than failed entirely, and pushed back against comparing STRC to assets that have collapsed completely.

Analyst: Bitcoin is forming a bottom, suggesting a favorable entry opportunity at this time.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts said in a post that Bitcoin chart signals indicate a market bottom is forming, and the current period may be one of the better long-term entry windows over the past decade. Over the last 10 years, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) has served as a critical benchmark for identifying Bitcoin cycle bottoms. Historically, whenever Bitcoin has touched or fallen below this MA, it has typically opened a macro accumulation window. He cited examples: Bitcoin hit the 200-week SMA in August 2015, triggering a bull run that pushed its price up over 8,500%; it tested the MA in December 2018 before rallying 267%; during the March 2020 liquidity crunch, Bitcoin validated the 200-week SMA as support, then surged 1,125%; and in June 2022, Bitcoin broke below the MA for the first time, consolidated under it until December 2022, and once it reclaimed the level, it rallied 680%. Currently, Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA stands at $63,500, while the cryptocurrency trades at roughly $60,000, slightly below that level. Based on a decade of market history, he views this as a key accumulation zone for long-term investors. He also noted Bitcoin could still dip further to $54,000, or even $40,000. As such, he recommends dollar-cost averaging into positions across the $58,000 to $40,000 range to build exposure in the technically discounted area. The $63,500 level is a critical watchpoint: once Bitcoin reclaims the 200-week SMA on the higher time frame and confirms it as macro support, history shows this typically marks the early stages of a new bull market.

Agent of the "BTC OG Insider Whale" shorts ZEC again; his long Bitcoin position is sitting on an unrealized loss of over $20 million.

According to Yujin Monitoring, Garrett Jin, the agent of the so-called "BTC OG insider whale", placed a ZEC short order worth $21.73 million at $418.9 half an hour ago. So far, $4.93 million of the order has been filled, with $16.8 million worth of positions still pending execution. Once fully filled, he will become the largest ZEC holder on Hyperliquid. Separately, his 1,270 BTC long position opened at $76,117 (valued at $96.54 million) is currently sitting on an unrealized loss of $20.15 million.

A former Google technology executive has sold all his Bitcoin holdings and claimed to have suffered huge financial losses.

Former technical lead for Google’s YouTube App architecture Patrick Shyu tweeted that he has sold all his Bitcoin and suffered massive financial losses. Shyu noted that Bitcoin has dropped 50% from 120,000 yuan last October to just over 60,000 yuan this summer, adding that no preparation can cushion the psychological impact of such market movements—especially when using leverage... "My leverage ratio was too high. A tiny mistake led to devastating consequences," he said.

Bitcoin falls below $59,000, with a 3.7% drop in 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dipped below $59,000, with a 3.7% decline in the past 24 hours.

A crypto whale sold 464 Bitcoin to rebalance its holdings into 17,750 ETH, valued at $27.56 million.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, a whale sold 464 Bitcoin to rebalance its portfolio and purchased 17,750 ETH worth $27.56 million two hours ago.

A crypto whale offloaded 464 Bitcoin to rebalance its portfolio into 17,750 ETH, valued at $27.56 million.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, a whale sold 464 Bitcoin and reallocated its holdings to purchase 17,750 Ethereum approximately two hours ago, with the transaction valued at $27.56 million.

Crypto derivatives see long-short divergence: Bitcoin (BTC) open interest climbs as traders eye adding short positions, while Ethereum (ETH) open interest stabilizes with no panic selling observed.

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto derivatives market has seen massive liquidations, with total liquidation volume hitting around $1 billion, and Ethereum’s liquidations exceeding Bitcoin’s. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s futures open interest rose for the second consecutive day to 778,000 BTC; the sharp increase in open interest late Thursday indicates Bitcoin traders are adding short positions amid the downtrend. In contrast, Ethereum’s futures open interest has stabilized around 14 million ETH since June 15, with Ethereum traders not actively adding short positions during the decline. The open-interest-adjusted 24-hour cumulative trading volume differential shows that short positions continue to dominate among the top 25 crypto tokens, with only BNB, SOL, and TON as exceptions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized implied volatility index jumped to 53%, its highest level since June 7; Ethereum’s volatility index rose to 66%. In the crypto options market, Bitcoin option skew neared 30% last week, with a notable put premium; large trades have seen put options with a $53,000 strike price expiring on July 10, reflecting strong demand for downside hedging.

A crypto whale has opened a 40x short position on Bitcoin and a 10x short position on SPCX, with a total position value of $73.76 million.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a crypto whale has opened a combined short position valued at $73.76 million: 1002.5 BTC (40x leverage) and 89,695.7 SPCX (10x leverage). BTC’s liquidation price is $62,071.8, and SPCX’s liquidation price is $162.79.

Michael Saylor: Market volatility will test all capital structures; Strategy will continue to focus on Bitcoin

Strategy founder Michael Saylor said market volatility tests all capital structures, but the company will stay focused on Bitcoin, prudent capital allocation, credit quality, and long-term value creation. He thanked investors for their support, noting that the firm will continue executing its strategy transparently and resolutely. Recently, Strategy’s share price and preferred shares have been under sustained pressure.

Billionaire Grant Cardone: Will Continue to Dollar-Cost Average Bitcoin Using Real Estate Cash Flow

US real estate investment firm Cardone Capital CEO Grant Cardone tweeted that he has long advocated combining Bitcoin with physical assets, using cash flow generated from these assets to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin amid its volatility. "We are committed to boosting real estate cash flow and buying more Bitcoin when it drops," he said. Cardone added that Cardone Capital’s Bitcoin hybrid model draws inspiration from treasury firms, but is backed by real assets and actual cash flow, making it the world’s largest real estate-Bitcoin hybrid company, with no institutional investors impacting its value proposition. The firm established its Bitcoin treasury in April last year and has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings since.

Billionaire Grant Cardone: Will Continue Regularly Investing in Bitcoin Using Real Estate Cash Flow

US real estate investment firm Cardone Capital CEO Grant Cardone tweeted that he has long advocated combining Bitcoin with physical assets, using cash flow generated from those assets to make dollar-cost averaging investments in Bitcoin amid its volatility. "We are committed to boosting real estate cash flow and buying more Bitcoin when it falls," he stated. Cardone added that Cardone Capital’s Bitcoin hybrid model is inspired by treasury firms, but backed by real assets and actual cash flow, making it the world’s largest real estate-Bitcoin hybrid company, with no institutional investors influencing its value proposition. The firm has built its Bitcoin treasury since April last year and has continued to increase its holdings ever since.

CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin May Not Yet Be Close to the Bear Market Bottom

Crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that it is not yet possible to confirm Bitcoin has reached the bottom of its current cycle. Based on his analysis of log-scale charts, Bitcoin’s current price does not appear close to the bottom region following traditional cycle patterns. He added that as prices approach investors’ cost bases, the risk-reward ratio typically improves significantly; in all past major cycles, Bitcoin’s price has touched its realized price. If this cycle fails to see this, it could signal a different market structure from previous ones.

Bitcoin's apparent demand has remained negative for 208 consecutive days.

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin's apparent demand has remained negative for 208 consecutive days, recently falling to -273,000 BTC, indicating its accumulation phase has stalled for seven months. The apparent demand metric gauges actual spot demand by comparing newly issued Bitcoin from miners to flows of existing inventory; a negative value means older coin supply is entering the market faster than buying absorption. When apparent demand is negative, it signals a large volume of old supply is entering circulation at a quicker rate than the spot market can absorb. This mismatch shows selling pressure exceeds new capital inflows, creating heavy upside resistance for Bitcoin's price.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $691.7 million, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posted a net outflow of $81.9 million.

According to Farside's monitoring data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net outflow of $691.7 million yesterday, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $81.9 million.

Since MicroStrategy first started selling its bitcoin holdings, MSTR has nearly halved, generating an unrealized profit of $1.32 million for a whale that shorted at the peak.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, MicroStrategy (MSTR), the Bitcoin treasury proxy stock, remains under persistent pressure. Since the company’s first Bitcoin reduction in years (it sold 32 BTC at the end of May to cover preferred stock dividends), MSTR has fallen 48% cumulatively, dropping another 13.8% in the past 24 hours. It is currently trading at $82 on Hyperliquid, hitting a two-year low and leading declines in the HIP-3 market. The unrealized loss on the company’s Bitcoin holdings exceeds $13 billion. Across on-chain addresses, total short positions stand at ~$5.55 million, long positions at ~$5.86 million, with a short-to-long nominal ratio of ~0.95. In terms of entry costs, the average long position is ~$97.24, while the average short position is ~$103.31. The current price of $84 has fallen below the long average, pushing most longs into losses. The nearest long liquidation line is at $76.25, roughly 9.3% below the current price. One high-level short position opened at $130.65 with 10x leverage, holding $2.4 million in positions and boasting an unrealized profit of $1.32 million. Three new short positions have entered amid today’s sell-off. Address: 0x3dc908374e11623d8eb9f07dfc7a2e5e803a54b0 – HyperInsight Bot is now live. Add @HyperInsightBot to your TG group and set it as an admin (enable message-sending permissions) to automatically sync on-chain updates.

Bitcoin once again fell below $59,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped below $59,000 again, with a 3.27% decline in the past 24 hours.

Ansem: Pessimism Hits Extreme Levels, Entering Bitcoin Now Is a Favorable Trading Opportunity

Crypto KOL Ansem has published a post reaffirming Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis, stating that despite his previous bearish stance, the current price level presents a strong buying opportunity. He noted that Bitcoin’s core narrative as the “hardest currency” remains intact: it cannot be seized by governments, enables instant cross-border transfers, and is insulated from the long-term depreciation of the U.S. dollar, making it an ideal vehicle for long-term wealth storage. Between 2024 and 2025, gold outperforming Bitcoin temporarily dented the “digital gold” narrative, but he believes market confidence will rebound once price momentum picks up. On the macro front, Ansem argues that with the Strait of Hormuz reopening and inflation pressures set to ease, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance may have peaked, at which point the Fed and Washington policymakers will have room to cut rates rather than continue hiking. A strong U.S. dollar and rising interest rates have weighed on gold, but if capital from profit-taking in AI stocks flows into real estate, cash, and long-term value storage assets, both gold and Bitcoin will benefit. Institutional investors like Paul Tudor Jones still hold interest in Bitcoin. Earlier, Ansem admitted he was bearish on Bitcoin due to risks in the holdings of Saylor, founder of Strategy, and had previously thought $60,000 would be hard to defend, but he noted he is now reacting to buy-side entry signals. He pointed out that current price action is already pricing in the worst-case scenario of Saylor being forced to sell, and even if he does need to offload, it would not happen for at least six months. He concluded that Bitcoin is currently at the intersection of its long-term historical support levels and what he describes as the most pessimistic market sentiment he has ever seen, making entry in early Q3 a notable trading opportunity.

STRC’s correlation with Bitcoin hits an all-time high, weakening its stable income attribute.

Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock STRC (Stretch) has seen its 90-day correlation coefficient with Bitcoin rise to nearly 0.70, a record high since its launch in July 2025, indicating its price movement is increasingly closely tracking Bitcoin’s fluctuations and eroding its appeal as a relatively stable income-generating product. Data shows STRC has dropped 23% this month to $76, while Bitcoin fell nearly 20% over the same period, breaking below $60,000. STRC has a par value of $100 and adopts a floating dividend mechanism, with its current annualized dividend yield standing at 11.5%. The company originally aimed to maintain its share price close to par to continuously raise funds through additional issuances to buy more Bitcoin. However, since STRC is currently trading at a significant discount to par, Strategy’s ability to raise funds through new issuances for Bitcoin purchases is limited. Meanwhile, the company has recently sold a small portion of its Bitcoin to pay dividends, a stark contrast to its long-held "never sell Bitcoin" strategy. Market views are divided: some investors believe STRC’s current discount offers an investment opportunity combining high yields and potential capital appreciation; others worry that if the downturn persists, it may weaken Strategy’s financing capacity and impact its model of continuously increasing Bitcoin holdings via capital markets.

Bitcoin rebounds to surpass $60,000, with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 1.31%

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin rebounded this morning to break through the $60,000 mark, with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 1.31% and currently trading at $60,104. The cryptocurrency once dipped to near the $58,000 level last night, and market panic has since eased slightly.

Analyst: Bitcoin falls below $60,000, but institutions and whales are not continuing to bet on further declines.

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on X: "Tomorrow is the quarterly expiry, and Bitcoin has dipped below $60,000. As seen in the GEX chart, $60,000 is clearly the highest open interest price point. Meanwhile, large positions are also starting to accumulate at $58,000 and $59,000, signaling rising market risk. Institutional investors and major holders have not continued to bet on a downward move; they are just waiting for the expiry."

A crypto whale allocated $8 million to Hyperliquid to open a 20x leveraged long position on Bitcoin.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a crypto whale has allegedly created two new addresses and allocated $8 million to Hyperliquid via these addresses to open a 20x leveraged long position on 400 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $23.5 million.

CryptoQuant Head of Research: Strategy Should Suspend Bitcoin Purchases to Rebuild Cash Reserves

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has advised Strategy to suspend Bitcoin purchases and prioritize rebuilding its cash reserves to enhance financial flexibility. Moreno noted that Strategy’s cash reserves have dropped by 38% this year, its annual dividend obligations have risen to around $1.2 billion, its dividend coverage period has shrunk from multiple years to just 14 months, and it faces $10.6 billion in unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin rebounds after flash crash, breaks through $60,000, surging over 3% in the past hour.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin saw a 4.8% flash crash tonight before a sustained rebound, breaking through the $60,000 level to currently trade at $60,004.00, with gains exceeding 3% in the past hour.

Agent of 'BTC OG Insider Whale' Incurs $21.12 Million Unrealized Loss on 5x Bitcoin Long Position

On-chain analyst Ai Yi (Twitter handle @ai_9684xtpa) monitored that Garrett Jin, the agent of the so-called "BTC OG insider whale", holds a 5x long Bitcoin position with an unrealized loss of $21.12 million. The entry price of Garrett Jin’s 1268.33 BTC long position is $76,117, with a mark price of $59,466 and a liquidation price of $16,962.