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TRON (TRX) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Real-time TRON whale movements, exchange flows and onchain findings tracked by Lookonchain. 859 updates and counting.

2026.09.10 16:37

QCP: Yen Appreciation, Strong Employment and Energy Shocks Intertwine, Posing Tests to the Fed’s Policy Path This Year

QCP released its September 10 macro theme report, noting the yen has recently rallied sharply from near 160 to around 154, driven primarily by the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy normalization, carry trade unwinding, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Japan’s August foreign exchange reserves fell by $87.8 billion, with securities holdings declining by the same amount—likely tied to yen intervention funding arrangements, leaving the market on guard for further intervention risks. On inflation, QCP attributes this spring’s PCE inflation surge mainly to energy prices. From February to May, non-durable goods contributed roughly 0.85 percentage points to core PCE year-over-year growth, while energy alone accounted for about 0.89 percentage points; by July, energy’s contribution had dropped to 0.48 percentage points. Still, core PCE remains at 3.3%, meaning falling energy prices have not fully eased the Federal Reserve’s concerns over broad inflationary pressures. The labor market retains resilience: U.S. August non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far outpacing market expectations, with a combined downward revision of 55,000 jobs for June and July; the three-month average monthly job gain stands at around 71,000. QCP holds that the labor market has not shown clear signs of stalling, supporting the "soft landing" narrative, though household financing costs stay elevated. Meanwhile, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz leave the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at just ~286.6 million barrels, near historical lows, meaning inflation risks from energy supply shocks remain persistent. Brent crude has recently rebounded above $100 per barrel. QCP poses a key question: If employment continues to hold resilient and inflation is driven mainly by energy, can the Federal Reserve keep policy rates on hold for the rest of the year? Should core inflation stay stubborn, expectations of policy tightening could heat up again.

2026.09.10 15:13

DeepSeek Breaks the "Impossible Trinity" of Large Models: Stronger, Faster, and Cheaper

Insight: Beating AI Flash News – DeepSeek V4.1 Flash has nearly overhauled its entire architecture this time, aiming to simultaneously enhance performance, boost speed, and cut costs. Stronger: The model features 552 billion backbone parameters, plus an external Engram conditional memory module with 196 billion parameters. Pre-training utilized 45T multi-modal tokens, while post-training integrated a large volume of real agent tasks, tool environments, and failure cases. DeepSWE v1.1 scores 74.2%, surpassing Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. Faster: The new CED architecture splits the 40-layer model into two halves. When reading prompts, only 8 billion parameters are activated per token, and just 16 billion during generation. Coupled with CSA2 cross-layer reuse and DSpark speculative decoding, the context window has been expanded from 4K to 1M (256x longer), with decoding computation per token increasing by only roughly a quarter. Cheaper: DeepSeek has further optimized KV cache to the maximum. The main cache is switched to FP4, plus cross-layer reuse, leaving global KV for each token at just 890 bytes, about 1/4 of V4 Flash; cache stored long-term on SSD or memory is further reduced to approximately 1/8. V4.1 Flash does not equate "stronger" simply to "more computation". While model scale continues to grow, only a small portion of parameters are adjusted each time; the context window is extended, yet the cache is compressed even smaller. Performance has improved, with speed and costs remaining uncompromised.

2026.09.05 16:35

Analysis: August non-farm payrolls appear strong on the surface, but underlying growth is only around 60,000, raising the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year.

Analysts said that U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, with a total upward revision of 55,000 to the prior two months’ data. Specifically, July’s non-farm payrolls were revised from a decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000. However, after excluding one-off factors such as the rebound in leisure and hospitality employment and government education sector hiring, August’s underlying employment growth was around 60,000, meaning the overall labor market is not as strong as the headline figures suggest. The report noted that the August unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, the labor force participation rate rebounded to 61.6%, and the broad U-6 unemployment rate fell from 7.9% to 7.7%, indicating that returning labor supply was absorbed by corporate demand, with an improvement in employment quality. Yet year-on-year growth in average hourly earnings slowed further to 3.1% from the prior reading of 3.2%, lower than July’s 3.4% CPI growth, signaling the labor market has not re-heated. Regarding Federal Reserve policy, GF Macro stated that August’s non-farm payroll data refuted both extreme narratives of a “jobs collapse” and a “re-overheating labor market,” but objectively raised the probability of a rate hike this year, as the labor market’s resilience has reduced concerns about further policy tightening. However, whether the Fed will raise rates in September will still depend mainly on the upcoming August inflation data. In markets, following the data release, the implied probability of a September rate hike from the FedWatch tool rose from 50% to 58.6%, with 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increasing by 4 basis points and 1 basis point respectively to 4.37% and 4.78%. Major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower, but the AI hardware sector bucked the trend, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rising 3%.

2026.09.01 00:38

Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s rebound momentum remains strong, with institutional allocations and speculative leverage rising in tandem.

Glassnode noted in a report that Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,600, having largely held onto the strong rally it launched from the $64,000 zone at the end of August after earlier breaking above $80,000. The broader digital asset market still shows strong institutional demand, though activity in spot and derivatives trading has cooled in some segments. Meanwhile, price momentum has clearly exceeded the upper bound of its statistical range. The secondary market’s trading volume and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicate that the balance of buying power in the market may be shifting, while retail participation has also weakened. Traditional finance capital continues to flow into regulated crypto investment products. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings remain profitable and have maintained weekly net inflows. At the same time, short-term, price-sensitive capital is entering the market, coinciding with high options open interest and a rapid narrowing of volatility spreads—signaling that market participants may be underestimating short-term volatility risks. On-chain data also reflects a pattern of "active settlement but weakening user participation": entity-adjusted transaction volumes are significantly above normal levels, while daily active addresses and total fee revenue have declined slightly. Overall, the Bitcoin market is in a transition phase from a strong rally to structural divergence. Sustained institutional capital allocation and a rebound in on-chain valuations are providing market support, though speculative leverage is rising and signs of short-term capital selling have begun to emerge. The market’s fundamentals remain solid, but short-term volatility and correction risks are on the rise.

2026.08.28 07:58

Jensen Huang fuels AI trading momentum, US three major stock indexes rebound, crypto assets rise steadily, HYPE hits a new all-time high, SOL stages a strong rebound.

Boosted by Jensen Huang’s “AI inflection point” remarks after the previous trading day’s close, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose on Thursday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.57%. According to market data from BIT (bit.com), among top-performing stocks: Micron fell 0.28%, SK Hynix rose 2%, and Tesla gained 2.6%. Semiconductor stocks rallied broadly: Broadcom climbed 4.49%, Arm advanced 1.65%, and Nvidia jumped 8.7%. However, most AI stocks did not follow Nvidia’s rally, posting only limited gains. Among CPO-related stocks, AAOI dropped 0.42% and LITE rose 1.82%. Memory stocks were mixed, with SanDisk down 0.96%. Software giant Salesforce announced a deep partnership with U.S. AI leader Anthropic to launch Agentforce, directly easing market concerns that “AI would destroy software companies.” Boosted by the news, Salesforce’s stock surged 22.58% in a single day, marking its best daily performance since August 2020. The cybersecurity sector also rallied. CrowdStrike’s Q2 revenue and forward guidance both exceeded expectations, driving its stock up 20.50% in a single day, its best daily performance since its 2019 IPO. The crypto market continued its steady upward trend. According to HTX market data, overnight, SOL surged past the $110 mark and is currently trading at $108.12, with a 24-hour gain of 1.82%. HYPE hit a new high, now trading at $84.78. Bitcoin consolidated above the $80,000 level, currently at $80,179. Additionally, influenced by Trump’s negative stance on a ceasefire with Iran, Bitget data shows WTI crude hit an intraday high of $84.24, closing up 1.58% at $83.53. Brent crude rose 2.12% to close at $89.70.

2026.08.27 11:26

Bill Gates strongly backs Ray Dalio: People are attacking the person who is most willing to openly discuss negative risks.

Beating AI Express News: Bill Gates Rarely Publicly Backs Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Gates pointed out that recent AI advances have far exceeded his expectations. After thoroughly studying Claude Code this year, even in programming—an area he is familiar with—he was shocked: “Many of these AIs are already better than me in many aspects.” He warned that AI could sweep across industries, causing mass unemployment; an even more extreme risk is that a small number of people could design new pathogens using advanced AI. Dario has long publicly warned about AI risks. This year, he clashed openly with the Pentagon over his insistence on restricting Claude from being used for large-scale domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons lacking reliable safeguards. His warnings have also strained his relations with the White House and many in the tech industry. Gates said bluntly: “People are attacking the person who is most willing to openly talk about negative risks.” He then shifted his criticism to the entire AI sector. He noted that those who truly understand AI’s capabilities are privately “very worried,” but many executives are reluctant to admit this publicly because the industry still has “the next trillion-dollar” in financing to pursue. He argues that huge commercial interests are leading the industry to actively downplay risks. Gates believes corporate self-regulation can no longer be relied on. He advocates establishing domestic and international AI regulatory systems, including mandatory reviews of high-risk capabilities that could be used to create new pathogens; designating some roles as “Human Reserved Positions” that must be performed by humans; and imposing taxes on AI tokens and robots to slow the pace of machine replacement of humans, using the tax revenue to support the unemployed.

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