Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

A Bitcoin whale deposited 138 million USDC into Binance.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a Bitcoin whale deposited 138 million USDC into Binance. The whale currently holds 200 million USDC and 61.68 million USDT, with a combined value of approximately $262 million.

A Bitcoin whale deposited 138 million USDC to Binance.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a Bitcoin whale has deposited 138 million USDC into Binance. The whale currently holds 200 million USDC and 61.68 million USDT, with a combined value of approximately $262 million.

Yesterday, the US Bitcoin spot ETF posted a net outflow of $65.4 million, while its Ethereum counterpart recorded a net outflow of $85.4 million.

Per Farside’s monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a total net outflow of $65.4 million yesterday. Breakdown: IBIT saw a net outflow of $65.4 million, while FBTC, BITB, ARKB, BTCO, EZBC, BRRR, HODL, BTCW, MSBT, GBTC, and BTC recorded no inflows or outflows. Separately, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw a total net outflow of $85.4 million yesterday. Breakdown: ETHA had a net outflow of $75.1 million, ETH posted a net outflow of $10.3 million; ETHB, FETH, ETHW, TETH, ETHV, QETH, EZET, MSSE, and ETHE had no inflows or outflows.

Bitcoin has rebounded more than 3% from this morning's low.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded 3.1% from this morning's low, and is currently trading at $83,408.

Bitcoin's market dominance rose to 60.32%, while the ETH/BTC exchange rate gave back its two-month gains.

According to HTX market data, during the earlier sell-off in the crypto market today, Bitcoin’s decline was significantly more limited than that of altcoins. The total market capitalization of altcoins once fell to $1.07 trillion, roughly 10% lower than the recent peak of this rally. Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) rose to 60.32% in tandem, while the ETH/BTC exchange rate dropped to 0.03 – its lowest level since August 19 – down approximately 11% from the recent rally’s peak.

Bitcoin surges past $83,000, notching a 1.41% daily gain.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through the $83,000 mark, currently trading at $83,004.44, with a 1.41% intraday gain.

A long-dormant Bitcoin whale has transferred 4,582 BTC, worth approximately $377.58 million, after years of inactivity.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, a long-dormant Bitcoin ancient whale has reactivated after years of inactivity, transferring all 4,582 BTC from its wallet, valued at approximately $377.58 million.

Bitcoin OG Wakes Up After Years, Transfers 4,582 $BTC Worth $377.58M

Another #BitcoinOG has woken up after years of inactivity, transferring out all 4,582 $BTC ($377.58M).

Jiang Zhuoer: Bitcoin may fall below $80,000, with the $77,000 support level expected to hold

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP Mining Pool, said in a recent article that Bitcoin is likely to fall below $80,000 but will unlikely drop below $77,000. $77,000 serves as both the Point of Control (POC) of the previous consolidation range and the POC since the August 19 rally — the price level with the highest trading volume in the respective range. He also noted the market is unlikely to dip below $75,000, giving investors a comfortable entry point.

Bitcoin is undergoing a correction, with altcoins seeing sharp declines; BOME has dropped over 30%, while ENA and NEAR have both fallen more than 13%.

Per HTX market data, Bitcoin’s pullback below $82,000 has triggered sharp declines across altcoins. Key 24-hour performance figures: BOME down 30.04% to $0.000768; BLUR down 29.48% to $0.01349; STRK down 28.35% to $0.08599; CKB down 22.50% to $0.0014796; PONS down 20.35% to $0.281; USELESS down 16.82% to $0.16969; ENA down 15.55% to $0.204; NEAR down 13.44% to $5.039.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $82,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly fell below $82,000, with a 24-hour decline of 1.93%.

UK High Court rules that claims related to over 61,000 Bitcoin in the Qian Zhimin case are subject to Chinese law, with the funds involved totaling approximately £4.1 billion.

A judgment released by the UK National Archives shows that the UK High Court ruled on the "Blue Sky Grid Rui Case" on October 12, holding that property rights claims filed by Chinese investors over the involved Bitcoin should be governed by Chinese law rather than UK law. The case involves over 61,000 Bitcoin, a key component of the billions of pounds in criminal proceeds recovered by UK law enforcement. The judgment states that the investment scam in question was carried out in China between 2014 and 2017, with total funds involved amounting to approximately 40.228 billion yuan (around ￡4.1 billion). The funds were used to purchase assets including Bitcoin, and the involved Bitcoin was later transferred to the UK. UK police seized relevant equipment and some access keys in 2018, and the assets subsequently recovered included over 61,000 Bitcoin. The court ruled that the investors' locations, the place where false statements were made, the location of fund payments, and the original purchase site of the Bitcoin were all primarily in China, so the relevant property rights should be determined in accordance with Chinese law. The court also rejected the investors' arguments seeking to establish rights under UK law and relevant asset tracing rules. It should be noted that this ruling only addresses which country's law applies to the relevant claims, and does not finally determine whether each investor owns the involved Bitcoin, nor does it decide on the final distribution of the assets. Specific rights under Chinese law and relevant evidence will need to be reviewed in subsequent proceedings.

Bitcoin rallied then pulled back, dropping over 2%; oil prices climbed to a nearly one-month high, while escalating Middle East tensions have stoked market risk aversion.

Bitcoin rose to $84,254 at one point on Monday before pulling back, with a drop of as much as 2.2%. Uncertainty over the prospects of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and incidents such as oil tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have amplified market concerns about energy supply. Brent crude climbed to $107.25 per barrel during trading, its highest level since September 16, while WTI crude broke above $94 per barrel. The U.S. will release September’s CPI and PPI data this week, and the oil price rally has further stoked fears of an inflation rebound. Former Goldman Sachs chief foreign exchange strategist Robin Brooks argues that, given traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has improved somewhat, current oil prices may be pricing in excessive risk premiums. In trading, QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin’s options market shows a mix of cautious and bullish expectations: traders are taking defensive positions while still retaining bets on an upward price breakout. The firm stated that if BTC decisively breaks above $87,000, its next target could be $94,000. On-chain and exchange liquidity data show there is approximately $180 million in sell-side liquidity around $84,500, while buy-side support lies near $82,000.

Yilihua: Bitcoin’s pullback is not over yet; don’t attempt to participate in the market at all times.

Liquid Capital founder Li Lihua stated in a post that despite Bitcoin’s rebound during its recent decline, BTC has broken below the mid-band (the 20-period moving average) on the 4-hour timeframe, amid a weaker U.S. stock market and rising oil prices. Currently, except for the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin shows weakness across all lower timeframes: 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily, suggesting the correction may not be over yet. Li Lihua noted that during Bitcoin’s earlier correction from around $86,000, multiple consolidations and attempts to break through the strong resistance at $87,000 had him concerned; the brief break below the key level of $84,000 during the correction also easily triggered market sentiment swings. Traders need to remain patient and avoid trying to time the market constantly. The cost of making bad trades is higher than missing out on opportunities, so investors should stick to their trading principles and not be distracted by short-term fluctuations.

Long-term Bitcoin holders return to profit, analysts say signs of a market recovery are emerging.

Crypto analyst Darkfost wrote in a post that Bitcoin’s long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has reclaimed its 1.10 annual moving average and held steady at that level, signaling long-term holders have posted an average profit of roughly 10% over the past year. Currently, BTC’s long-term holder SOPR stands at a weekly average of 1.25 and monthly average of 1.16, both above the annual level, pointing to improved market conditions as long-term holders begin realizing profits again. Darkfost highlighted this development merits comparison to the last bear market: near its end, long-term holders also resumed generating profits. He added that moderate profitability in the market is a positive sign that could further lift investors’ outlook for the future.

Last week, stablecoin supply decreased by $856 million, while publicly listed companies net reduced their Bitcoin holdings by 89 BTC.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, last week’s total stablecoin market capitalization decreased by $856 million, decentralized exchange (DEX) spot trading volume fell 19.34% week-over-week, while perpetual contract trading volume rebounded 8.20%. In the same period, protocol revenue rose 4.44% week-over-week, with Base App’s weekly revenue surging 519%. For listed companies’ BTC holdings, one firm added to its BTC reserves last week, while three others reduced theirs, leading to a net reduction of 89 BTC, valued at roughly $7.37 million. In terms of institutional and whale activity, Strategy acquired 250 BTC last week, worth approximately $20.69 million; Bitmine purchased 12,532 ETH, valued at around $31.75 million.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin needs to demonstrate buying power above $80,000; otherwise, it may further correct to the range of $76,000 to $78,000.

Renowned trader Killa posted that Bitcoin is currently retesting the price range it broke through earlier, and the market needs bulls to actively buy at current levels to confirm the range still holds support. If BTC breaks below the range again and fails to reclaim it, this could signal a breakdown in the current structure, leading to a further pullback below $80,000. Killa noted that roughly $2 billion in liquidations have already hit the market, so there is no need to sweep previous lows again to secure liquidity. If prices continue to weaken, this would instead indicate market weakness rather than bulls building up strength. He warned that the defense around $80,000 earlier may have only lured traders into positions, after which prices could still dip to the $76,000 to $78,000 range; if Bitcoin hopes to continue its upward trajectory, buying activity in the current area will be critical.

Bitcoin ETFs see $10.49M inflow, but Ethereum ETFs suffer $64.22M outflow in latest trading

Oct 12 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +127 $BTC(+$10.49M)?? 7D NetFlow: -8,538 $BTC(-$704.12M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -25,446 $ETH(-$64.22M)?? 7D NetFlow: -208,593 $ETH(-$526.4M)??

Analysis: Bitcoin may trade sideways within the range of $81,300 to $84,500 this week, with Wednesday's CPI data determining its subsequent direction.

Bitfinex Alpha released a report stating that Bitcoin’s price movement this week will be influenced by Wednesday’s U.S. CPI data release and the strength of spot buying. The report predicts that before the CPI announcement, BTC will likely trade in a range of $81,300 to $84,500. It notes that BTC has fallen 7.9% from its October 2 high of $87,197, hitting a low of $80,347 on October 8 before reclaiming the previous range high of $81,300. During the same period, around $1.18 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, and open interest has not yet recovered significantly, meaning the next market move will rely more on spot market demand, which remains the weakest link in the market. The overall cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is approximately $84,340, slightly above the current price, so some investors may sell near their cost basis if the price rebounds. On the macro front, the U.S. core PCE inflation rate stands at 3%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield is 2.91%. The report argues that if core CPI’s month-over-month increase does not exceed 0.2%, interest rate expectations may be lowered, providing upward momentum for BTC; if it hits 0.3% or higher, spot buying will face greater pressure. The report adds that if BTC successfully breaks above $84,500 supported by ETF inflows, its next target could be the year-to-date opening price of $87,722; if it consistently falls below $81,300 and ETF outflows resume, attention should be paid to the real market average of around $77,400.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s current cycle bottom has formed, with short-term holder supply showing overheating signals again.

Well-known crypto analyst Killa published a post stating that in the current cycle, the BTC supply held by short-term holders (STHs) has risen again to overheated levels after breaking away from the macro bottom, a pattern mirroring the previous cycle, which could serve as another signal that the market bottom has already formed. Killa noted that after the STH supply hit a similar level in 2023, BTC continued its sideways rally and remained above its long-term trend, and the market is now exhibiting a comparable trajectory. He reminded investors not to be misled by the Fear & Greed Index, adding that periods of market irrationality can last far longer than anticipated.

Bitcoin falls below $83,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $83,000.

Analysis: Bitcoin buying demand remains strong. Last week, the market absorbed sell pressure of 220,000 BTC, with net outflows from centralized exchanges (CEX) hitting 3,863 BTC.

Crypto market analyst Axel Adler Jr noted in a post that last week, the market absorbed selling pressure of 220,374 Bitcoin (BTC). During the same period, the net BTC flow on exchanges stood at -3,863 BTC, meaning more Bitcoin flowed out of exchanges than into them. Despite the large scale of capital inflows, the market still showed a net outflow, reflecting relatively strong buying demand.

Bitcoin kicked off the week cautiously, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields.

A stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields have kicked off the week with caution in markets. Bitcoin trades above $83,000, while gold hovers near $4,180 per ounce, both down roughly 0.5%. Tech stock futures are slightly lower, WTI crude oil rises above $92 per barrel, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds above 102.4. U.S. inflation data, set to release this Wednesday, will be the market’s key focus. Markets expect U.S. core CPI to rise 2.5% year-over-year and headline CPI to rise 3.7% year-over-year. If the figures meet expectations, it would mark a reacceleration from last month, potentially further shaping market views on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Separately, The Information reports that IREN, which has shifted from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure operations, has struck a multi-year cloud services deal with AI firm Anthropic. Following the announcement, IREN’s U.S. pre-market shares rose roughly 4%.

Bitcoin holds key support at $82,500, as this week’s U.S. CPI and PPI data are poised to trigger market volatility.

Bitcoin’s weekly close held the key support level of $82,500, temporarily avoiding a fall back into its long-term trading range of $60,000 to $80,000. BTC settled at around $83,700 on Sunday, down roughly 3.2% for the week. Traders are closely monitoring this week’s U.S. inflation data to assess future market trends. September’s CPI and PPI figures will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The market expects the year-over-year CPI rise to climb from 3.4% to 3.7%, while the month-over-month PPI increase is projected to go from 0.2% to 0.3%. Lower-than-expected inflation could ease concerns over further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, providing support for risk assets including Bitcoin, stocks and gold; higher-than-expected inflation, meanwhile, may intensify market pressure. On the rate front, CME FedWatch data shows the market assigns an 18.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on October 28, and a 70.6% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December. Separately, U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields stand at 5.24% and 5.60% respectively. Additionally, WTI crude oil rebounded to around $91.50 per barrel on Monday, up roughly 2% from its intraday low. Traders note that if Bitcoin can sustain its hold on the $82,500 support level, it may continue its rally; a break below this level, however, could expose it to renewed downward pressure.

QCP notes that Bitcoin's support level is near $80,000, and if it breaks through $87,000, it will likely test $94,000.

QCP Capital released a note noting that one year has passed since the crypto market hit its largest single-day liquidation record on October 11 last year, and Bitcoin’s price trajectory now looks far more stable. The mass repeat selloff markets had feared never materialized, even as the U.S. government’s large Bitcoin transfers sparked market unease and reports over the weekend emerged of an implant attack on Ledger hardware. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above $87,000 but remains range-bound, with support holding near $80,000. Implied volatility stays elevated, while the risk reversal indicator shows put option premiums relative to call options are lower than usual—signaling defensive market positions have shrunk, though the market is still pricing in potential price breakouts. Should Bitcoin decisively break above $87,000, focus will turn to $94,000. Historically, October has been a strong month for crypto markets, though last year was a clear exception, and option pricing suggests this seasonal trend may reemerge. This week brings several key catalysts: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, and a speech by Fed’s Christopher Waller at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings on Friday. If he repeats the hawkish signals he delivered at the Jackson Hole symposium, it could weigh on risk assets. Currently, markets price in a ~17% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, with holding rates steady remaining the consensus, though this week’s data could test that outlook. The options market also shows clear bullish positioning: large bullish butterfly spreads expiring October 30 with strike prices of $90k, $95k, and $100k respectively are the most concentrated open interest positions among end-of-October contracts.

PlanB: Last year, he converted his Bitcoin holdings to be held through ETFs, facing criticism but has no regrets.

Well-known crypto analyst PlanB stated in a post that he converted his held Bitcoin to holdings via ETFs in 2025, a move that drew significant criticism. Later, issues were exposed with Coldcard, and unauthorized hardware implants were subsequently found in Ledger devices. He has no regrets whatsoever about his initial decision to choose ETFs.

Analysis: Transaction fee revenue accounts for less than 1% of Bitcoin miners' total income, putting older mining machines under profitability pressure.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that over the past 30 days, Bitcoin transaction fee revenue has averaged just 0.64% of miners’ total income, a slight dip from 0.65% the prior week. This metric has stayed below 1% since mid-August 2025. Currently, miners’ income still relies mainly on newly minted Bitcoin, with transaction fees contributing minimally to their profitability. As a result, miners’ operational performance largely depends on Bitcoin’s price and the energy efficiency of their mining rigs. While Bitcoin’s price has rebounded from around $59,000 to $84,000, improving miners’ operating conditions, older mining machines still face significant profitability pressure at current electricity costs. If Bitcoin’s price continues to rise, the electricity cost losses for older rigs are expected to narrow, while profit margins for energy-efficient miners could expand further. Conversely, a drop in the coin’s price would hit miners’ income. Additionally, a fee revenue share below 1% does not directly indicate that miners are shutting down operations en masse or selling off reserves. If the fee revenue share rebounds consistently above 1% in the future, it may signal an improved contribution of transaction fees to miners’ income. It is important to note that the above costs only account for electricity, and do not include other expenses such as mining rig purchases, cooling facilities, and maintenance.

Coinbase's Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative for 19 consecutive days.

According to Coinglass data, Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative for 19 consecutive days, standing at -0.12% as of press time and hitting a recent low, signaling sustained weakness in U.S. market purchasing power. The index measures the gap between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and the global average market price. A negative premium typically reflects heavy selling pressure in the U.S. market, declining investor risk appetite, rising market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

Bitcoin falls below $84,000, with its daily gain narrowing to 0.11%

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $84,000, currently trading at $83,995.10, with its daily gain narrowed to 0.11%.

Bitcoin mining firm Genesis Digital Assets is set to transition to AI data centers.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Bitcoin mining firm Genesis Digital Assets will transition to an AI data center business. SWI Group acquired a large stake in the company for $500 million in June this year, subsequently becoming its controlling shareholder. On October 12, SWI announced an €800 million (approximately $900 million) financing round to fund data center upgrades and expansion. The company plans to leverage Genesis Digital’s data centers in Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Sweden to provide computing power to large cloud service providers, while selling its remaining mining assets in Kazakhstan.

Analysis: Bitcoin remains in the early stage of a long-term bull market, and may continue to consolidate sideways in the short term.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo said in a post that the Puell Multiple indicator currently shows Bitcoin (BTC) remains in the early stages of a bull market from a long-term structural perspective, while the market is in a sideways consolidation phase from a near-term structural standpoint. The Puell Multiple is used to roughly gauge the selling pressure exerted by Bitcoin miners.

Analysis: Bitcoin closes above $83,000 on the weekly chart, bulls remain in control

Benjamin Cowen, founder of crypto market research platform ITC, posted that Bitcoin closing above $83,000 on its weekly chart signals bulls remain in control, while bears need to prove they have taken over market dominance. Cowen noted that based on his past experience, employing the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy in the second half of U.S. midterm election years is a prudent move; this strategy worked in 2018 and 2022, and he hopes it will hold true in 2026.

A crypto whale sold 410.14 Bitcoin to rebalance its position to Ethereum, with the Ethereum holdings valued at $36.14 million.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a mysterious crypto whale is selling Bitcoin to rebalance its holdings into Ethereum. The whale offloaded 410.14 Bitcoin worth $34.16 million, then bought 14,341 Ethereum on decentralized exchanges (DEX) for $36.14 million.

Analysis: 53% of Bitcoin's holdings are concentrated above $83,000, with the $84,000 to $85,000 range serving as a key breakout level.

Crypto analyst Darkfost notes that approximately 53% of total invested capital is concentrated above Bitcoin’s current price level of around $83,000, meaning buying Bitcoin at this level would put your holding cost lower than more than half of existing investors. The $84,000–$85,000 range is the largest cluster of trading positions; many investors react at this key level, making it Bitcoin’s core resistance that it must break through. Moving lower, the $79,000–$77,000 range may act as a support level. If the price fails to effectively break through the $84,000–$85,000 range, the market may first retest this support zone. Once the price breaks above this dense position cluster with significant trading volume and holds steady there, it will mean the cost pressure for most existing holders has been absorbed, and subsequent upward resistance will ease noticeably.

Strive’s CEO followed Michael Saylor’s lead in releasing Bitcoin Tracker information, hinting at an upcoming announcement of additional Bitcoin purchases.

Bitcoin treasury firm Strive CEO Matt Cole, following in Michael Saylor’s footsteps, has released details related to a Bitcoin tracker. He stated “Think ?igger,” hinting that he will announce another Bitcoin purchase next week. Earlier on October 5, Matt Cole disclosed that Strive bought 2,000 BTC at an average price of $84,422 per coin, totaling approximately $169 million, bringing the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 29,462 coins.

Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, potentially signaling additional BTC purchases.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates related to the Bitcoin Tracker, stating, "There's always room for more orange." Per past patterns, orange dots symbolize Strategy's Bitcoin purchase records, so this move likely signals the company will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes in its Bitcoin holdings the day after such announcements.

Michael Saylor once again released Bitcoin tracker data, potentially signaling additional BTC purchases.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates related to its Bitcoin Tracker, stating, “There’s always room for more orange.” Following past patterns, the orange dots symbolize Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase records, suggesting the firm may be planning to add to its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes in its Bitcoin position the day after such announcements.

On Hyperliquid, Ethereum (ETH) trading volume over the past 24 hours surpassed Bitcoin (BTC), hitting approximately $1.1 billion.

On the Hyperliquid platform, ETH’s 24-hour trading volume exceeded BTC’s $805 million, reaching approximately $1.1 billion. Market analysts link the surge in ETH’s trading volume to suspected exploitation of PaperTrade’s mechanisms. Earlier today, reports indicated PaperTrade was targeted for price manipulation by two wallet addresses, with clear vulnerabilities in the protocol. The two addresses conducted trades on Hyperliquid at individual sizes of around $20 million, driving ETH’s price to fluctuate by 10 to 20 basis points, while establishing long positions worth hundreds of millions of nominal dollars on PaperTrade.

A dormant Bitcoin address inactive for 15.9 years has just been activated, containing 0.05 BTC.

Whale Alert has detected that a dormant Bitcoin address, inactive for 15.9 years, has just been activated, holding 0.05 BTC worth $4,152.

Perspective: Bitcoin has entered a phase of intensified potential selling pressure, with whether subsequent demand can absorb this pressure being the key.

Crypto analyst Darkfost posted on X that Bitcoin has entered a phase of sharply intensifying selling pressure. Notably, this refers to potential selling pressure, not actual realized selling activity. The “Seller Exhaustion Indicator” combines profitable supply and volatility (returns) to distinguish between market risk and stable phases, serving as a valuable metric for short-term market analysis. As the recent rally pushed Bitcoin’s price above $85,000, the indicator signals the market is entering a stage where selling pressure could escalate. The indicator’s shift has been quite sudden, especially evident among short-term holders. Since volatility tends to weaken over time, excessive focus on specific numerical values is unwarranted, though the overall trend is clear. Currently, the indicator has hit a critical level matching the one that signaled a local top in this cycle. Moving forward, it remains to be seen whether market demand can improve to limit potential pullbacks; if volatility contracts accordingly, that would also help the indicator return to normal.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s current trend resembles that of late 2025 to early 2026, with the $80,000 level serving as a key support.

Crypto analyst Darkfost posted on X that Bitcoin’s current trend closely resembles the market pattern from the end of 2025 to early 2026. Prices are fluctuating continuously around the capital-weighted cost benchmark, with $80,500 emerging as a potential key near-term support level. Unlike the realized price, which only calculates purchase prices, the capital-weighted cost benchmark metric weights holding costs based on the size of invested funds, making it a key indicator of the market’s average profit and loss status. Darkfost added that the current zone is a critical juncture where investors are roughly at the break-even point, and market uncertainty may drive more investors to take action. While the $80,500 level is likely to act as support for now, its subsequent trend remains to be closely watched.

During the crypto market correction, whales increased their holdings by approximately 15,000 Bitcoin.

According to crypto analyst alicharts, during the ongoing Bitcoin correction, whale groups have adopted an accumulation strategy for major cryptocurrencies. Over the past 72 hours, whales have added approximately 15,000 Bitcoin, more than 166,000 ETH, and over 45 million XRP to their holdings.

Morgan Stanley's total Bitcoin holdings have climbed to 10,639 coins, valued at approximately $880 million.

According to Arkham's monitoring, Morgan Stanley added approximately 91.685 Bitcoin to its holdings two days ago via its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) MSBT, bringing its total Bitcoin position to 10,639 coins, currently valued at roughly $880 million.

A prominent trader notes that Bitcoin has a strong buy wall at the $80,000 level; if the current price can stabilize, it is worth going long.

Prominent trader Killa posted that buyers are absorbing selling pressure during the recent pullback, a pattern similar to that seen in a prior consolidation phase, with very little support below the current price level. Order book data shows strong buy-side accumulation at the just-over-$80,000 price level, where buyers hold firm, and this level itself is a key psychological threshold for Bitcoin. Killa noted that if Bitcoin’s weekly candlestick closes above the prior week’s low of $82,600 this week, it will serve as a bullish signal, likely marking a typical return to range after a stop-loss hunt. As a BTC-focused quantitative trader, Killa accurately predicted the peak of the current bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 before switching to a long position during the broad market selloff on June 5.

Bitcoin's annualized volatility has fallen to 46%, but the number of extreme market moves this year has already exceeded that recorded during the 2018 bear market.

As of 2026, Bitcoin has seen 10 trading days with 3-standard-deviation price moves, exceeding the full-year total of 8 such days during the 2018 bear market. While Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has dropped from 84% in 2018 to around 46%, extreme price swings remain frequent relative to its recent volatility levels. A 3-standard-deviation move measures how much a price deviates from its typical recent volatility range. Data shows that the average daily price swing for Bitcoin during these extreme moves this year is roughly 7%, down from about 10% in 2018. Since 2024, Bitcoin’s volatility has stood at approximately 47%, similar to Nvidia’s. Yet over the same period, Bitcoin has recorded 26 trading days with 3-standard-deviation moves—far outpacing Nvidia’s 8, the S&P 500’s 16, and gold’s 12. Market analysts note that macroeconomic shocks, leverage in derivatives markets, and concentrated positions are key drivers of the persistent extreme volatility. When investors heavily sell options betting on market calm, sudden news can trigger mass liquidations of those positions, further amplifying price swings. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value-at-Risk (VaR) models fail to adequately measure tail risks during extreme market conditions, advising investors to focus more on risk metrics like Expected Shortfall. Meanwhile, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management have enhanced the market’s ability to absorb shocks, though this does not mean extreme volatility will disappear.

Calamos CEO Reiterates Bitcoin’s $1 Million Price Target, Projects It Will Become a Standard Allocation in Global Investment Portfolios

Calamos Investments, an asset management firm, President and CEO John Koudounis reaffirmed his long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin, predicting that BTC will eventually rise above $1 million. Koudounis first set this target at a Bitcoin event in Abu Dhabi, originally projecting it would be achieved by 2030; he has since maintained this forecast, though noting Bitcoin may not hit that level before 2030. Koudounis believes blockchain will become a key component of future financial infrastructure. Unlike traditional cross-border bank transfers, which can be delayed over weekends, the Bitcoin network operates 24/7 year-round. He also pointed out that global financial advisors manage roughly $146 trillion in assets, and as more banks adopt Bitcoin and offer collateralized lending services, even a small BTC allocation in portfolios could drive significant new demand. Koudounis, once dubbed Wall Street’s youngest CEO, currently leads Calamos Investments, which manages around $50 billion in client assets. The firm also issues Bitcoin-related ETFs and Bitcoin investment products with downside protection mechanisms. These views represent his personal market judgment and do not constitute a guarantee of BTC’s price.

Analysis: During Bitcoin’s drop from $87,000, long-term holders barely deposited coins onto trading platforms.

Bitfinex stated in a post that Bitcoin is typically transferred to trading platforms before being sold. However, during Bitcoin’s decline from $87,000, almost no Bitcoin held for six months or longer exhibited this behavior. Data shows that nearly all Bitcoin flowing into exchanges recently consists of tokens that were only transferred in the past week. Bitfinex noted that a genuine market capitulation usually requires long-term holders to start moving and selling their holdings, and no such sign has emerged yet.

Bitcoin demand indicators continue to improve, with spot demand nearly turning positive, likely building momentum for a price rebound.

Crypto market analyst CW stated in a recent post that despite Bitcoin’s recent price decline, demand-side indicators still show positive trends. Futures demand saw a slight pullback from the previous day, while spot demand’s negative balance narrowed, keeping overall demand in a relatively positive range. Spot demand, which had remained in negative territory, is now approaching positive territory. Once spot demand turns positive, Bitcoin will gain strong upward momentum.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs see massive outflows: $282.91M BTC, $96.2M ETH in 24 hours

Oct 9 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -3,412 $BTC(-$282.91M)?? 7D NetFlow: -6,747 $BTC(-$559.35M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -38,576 $ETH(-$96.2M)?? 7D NetFlow: -206,680 $ETH(-$515.41M)??

France has become a global hotspot for physical attacks on Bitcoin holders: 90 such cases were recorded in over seven months, with data leaks identified as a likely primary cause.

Official French data shows that between January 1 and mid-August 2026, France recorded 90 cryptocurrency-related cases of kidnapping, extortion, threats and violent theft, averaging roughly one incident every 2.5 days. Over the same period, police made 223 arrests, with 126 people imprisoned between January and July. Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis counted 30 publicly recorded cryptocurrency-related violent attacks in France as of mid-2026; security firm Gart.io, meanwhile, tracked 73 real-world attacks in France that year — more than the 66 recorded in the U.S. and 27 in the U.K. Eric Jardine, Chainalysis’ head of research, attributed the surge in attacks to large-scale data breaches. Breaches of French tax records and user data from crypto tax reporting platform Waltio in 2026 likely allowed attackers to obtain cryptocurrency holders’ identities, home addresses and asset information. The report also noted that over 40% of the relevant attacks in France involved victims’ relatives or acquaintances, with criminals likely targeting victims in advance via social media, on-chain data and leaked information. French authorities are coordinating investigations through specialized judicial bodies focused on organized crime.