QCP notes that Bitcoin's support level is near $80,000, and if it breaks through $87,000, it will likely test $94,000.

QCP Capital released a note noting that one year has passed since the crypto market hit its largest single-day liquidation record on October 11 last year, and Bitcoin’s price trajectory now looks far more stable. The mass repeat selloff markets had feared never materialized, even as the U.S. government’s large Bitcoin transfers sparked market unease and reports over the weekend emerged of an implant attack on Ledger hardware. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above $87,000 but remains range-bound, with support holding near $80,000. Implied volatility stays elevated, while the risk reversal indicator shows put option premiums relative to call options are lower than usual—signaling defensive market positions have shrunk, though the market is still pricing in potential price breakouts. Should Bitcoin decisively break above $87,000, focus will turn to $94,000. Historically, October has been a strong month for crypto markets, though last year was a clear exception, and option pricing suggests this seasonal trend may reemerge. This week brings several key catalysts: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, and a speech by Fed’s Christopher Waller at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings on Friday. If he repeats the hawkish signals he delivered at the Jackson Hole symposium, it could weigh on risk assets. Currently, markets price in a ~17% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, with holding rates steady remaining the consensus, though this week’s data could test that outlook. The options market also shows clear bullish positioning: large bullish butterfly spreads expiring October 30 with strike prices of $90k, $95k, and $100k respectively are the most concentrated open interest positions among end-of-October contracts.