Peter Brandt: Bitcoin may bottom out at $40,000, while the Nasdaq index shows a suspected top pattern.

ARK Invest released its Q2 2026 Bitcoin report, stating that Bitcoin fell approximately 14% in the second quarter, breaking below the short-term holder realized price, 200-day moving average, and on-chain average, with a still bearish technical outlook. However, the proportion of loss-making supply rose to around 54%, and the supply held by long-term holders hit a record high of roughly 14.85 million BTC, which ARK considers a potential signal of seller exhaustion. The report also pointed out that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back to its on-chain cost range of approximately $49,000 to $53,000, meaning downside risks have not been fully released. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of around 71,000 BTC in Q2, while Strategy’s STRC preferred shares dropped to a low of $74.57.

CNBC’s latest “All-American Economic Survey” reveals that U.S. public economic confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since the post-pandemic era, with a deep sense of frustration spreading among voters. The data shows that as many as 61% of respondents hold a pessimistic outlook on current and future economic conditions, marking the highest such share since late 2023. In comparison, only 25% remain optimistic. This sentiment is driven by a widespread “lifestyle downgrade” being experienced by ordinary citizens. Furthermore, Trump’s overall approval rating stands at just 40%, while his disapproval rate hits 59%. For economic governance, his disapproval rate reaches 60%, pushing his net approval rating to -22%—the worst performance of his entire political career.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has once again released a statement: In response to the US military's aggressive acts, we struck the special operations command center of the US military's Tanf military base in Syria, destroyed a radar system, multiple special operations helicopters, and caused US military casualties. Iran still fully controls the Strait of Hormuz; as long as US aggressive acts continue, not a single drop of oil or natural gas will be exported through this region.

According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. stock market is heading for another strong earnings season. The investment bank forecasts S&P 500 constituents will post a 22% year-over-year earnings jump in the second quarter, with AI infrastructure-related stocks contributing nearly 60% of that growth—of which Micron Technology and NVIDIA together account for over 40%. If the forecast materializes, this would mark the S&P 500’s second consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 20%. Goldman Sachs’ report stresses that the market’s current core focus is not the performance of tech giants themselves (after all, hyperscale cloud computing firms’ AI spending is already well-documented), but whether a broader range of companies across the supply chain can turn AI demand into tangible earnings.

BMO Capital has raised Alphabet’s stock price target from $435 to $455, while maintaining its "Outperform" rating on the company. The BMO Capital research report notes that forecasts for Google Cloud’s fourth quarter and fiscal 2027 were lifted by 2% and 13% respectively, aligning its projections with consensus estimates, backed by strong cloud sector fundamentals, scaling capabilities, and the company’s substantial order backlog. Additionally, Google’s leading position in search remains intact, delivering mid-to-high double-digit growth, though new concerns have emerged regarding the intelligence of its Gemini model. The firm added that Gemini Pro 3.5 was reportedly delayed due to insufficient benchmark testing.

HSBC has upgraded Apple Inc.’s stock to a Buy rating, stating the tech giant is at an “operational inflection point.” The bank also raised Apple’s price target from $260 to $366. HSBC notes Apple can avoid high capital expenditure controversies: its capital investment equals just 2.5% of its 2026 projected sales, compared to 39% for hyperscale cloud service providers. Additionally, Apple is well-positioned to leverage its 2.5 billion installed device base to launch its upcoming updated Apple Intelligence system. The bank views Apple’s hardware product line as strong, including the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max launching this fall, the iPhone Air scheduled for April 2027, and “most importantly,” a book-style foldable phone.