Bitcoin at Extremes: Oversold Signals and the Bottom Formation Thesis

Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which Dec 2018 and Jun 2022 were examples of).

Both sell-offs in Nov and Feb are in the hall of fame of Realised Loss onchain. Not the biggest in relative terms, but by far the largest in USD terms, over $7.5 Billion over just those two days.

We're in the bottom 20% of the most conservative, and bottom 5% of the most aggressive deviations from any sane anchor model.

Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken...

...Or you should be ignoring the bears, staying very humble, and quietly DCA stacking sats from here on.

Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains. It will claim many who don't want to see the rest of the movie.

We often experience retests of the lows, leaky price charts, powerful rallies...and then lower lows...often with a final capitulation event to book-end the time-pain chapter of the bear.

In my view, even though this sounds horrific, it is unlikely we have anywhere near the aggressive rate of decline, nor depth of decline as has already occurred in Nov'25 and Feb'25. The hard part of the drawdown is most likely behind us.

The difference between $17.6k in June 2022, and $15.6k in Dec 2022...was six months (the price delta is frankly irrelevant for any long-term investor).

There is no rush, but these Bitcoin prices are temporary. How temporary we do not know, but it's tremendously oversold, and there are few statistics I am aware of that suggest otherwise.

The bears will spend the next few months liquidating their trading accounts trying to short the bottom of a painful chopsolidation range. The bulls will do the same by getting too hopeful at the range highs.

Investing is a game of picking great assets, accumulating at low prices, and then being patient as fuck.

The 200-week MA is at $58.5k, a mere bees dick below the $60k low we already set. There are still folks out there who want to haggle over the missing 3%. 

The Realised Price is at $55k, which from first principles, should stop being visited over time, as it deviates due to unrealised profit in lost coins (a topic for another day). We've already cleared every excess leverage level down to $60k, no stop losses survived February's move.

This is the time to stay humble, and stack sats.

If you're not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when? Don't fantasise over lump summing the exact bottom wick. You will be too scared to do it on the day.

Buy the whole bottom. Dollar cost average for the next six months, and remove your emotions from the problem at hand.

A final note; ignore the bears. They will perpetually revise their targets lower and lower, and get plenty of clicks for doing so. Humans love bear-porn because we're wired to avoid risk.

This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for Bitcoin.

Ignore the bears, they lack ambition.