When Wall Street Owns Bitcoin: ETF Concentration, Losses, and the Search for a New Narrative - Lookonchain

When Wall Street Owns Bitcoin: ETF Concentration, Losses, and the Search for a New Narrative

Jim Bianco

/2026.02.03 00:23:20

Nearly 10% of Bitcoin is now held by Strategy and spot ETFs. With average ETF cost bases above price, $7B+ in unrealized losses and record outflows show normie capital under pressure—leaving BTC dependent on a fresh narrative to reaccelerate.

10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the 11 Spot BTC ETFs.

These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts.

Collectively, the avg purchase price is $85.36K, meaning the average is now ~$8k underwater, with an unrealized loss of ~$7B.

The 11 biggest spot $BTC ETFs now hold 1.29M $BTC – worth over $115B (Friday PM).

These ETFs hold roughly 6.5% of all $BTC in circulation.

The 3 largest – iShares’ $IBIT (blue), Fidelity’s $FBTC (red), and Grayscale’s $GBTC (orange) – hold 5.65%.

The 11 Spot $BTC ETFs average purchase price is ~$90.2K (blue), about $13K (16%) above the current price (bottom panel).

Note these ETFs are collectively on a record 10 consecutive outflow days. $BTC is down ~8% since Friday's NYSE close.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy or $MSTR) hold 713K of $BTC (orange). When combined with the Spot $BTC ETFs (blue), these two entities own 10% of all bitcoin (green).

Strategy has been buying bitcoin since 2020, averaging $76.02K per purchase (blue). It is currently holding an unrealized profit of just $1.17B (bottom panel).

This unrealized profit was $30+ B last October.

Boombers are collectively holding losses, the ETFs have had outflows for a record 10 straight days, and the $BTC is down 8% from Friday's NYSE close.

$BTC needs a new narrative, see post #5 in the repost.
https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2017698470870540589

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