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Gold at $5,000 Is Not Bitcoin’s Failure—It’s the First Act

Swan
/12 hours ago
Gold’s parabolic breakout isn’t a Bitcoin defeat but the same debasement trade unfolding in phases. Gold moves first as the hedge for states; Bitcoin follows as the hedge for people. They trend together long term, but cycle apart short term.

This is wild.

Gold just ripped above $5,000/oz and the chart looks like a 2017 Bitcoin cycle.

Parabolic. Vertical. Relentless.

Instead of feeling defeated, Bitcoiners should be ecstatic about this move.

Here’s why 🧵👇

Everyone’s framing this as gold vs Bitcoin.

That’s the mistake.

Gold ripping isn’t Bitcoin failing.

It’s the same trade expressing itself through a different vehicle.

Same pressure. Different release valve.

Zoom out and actually look at the gold chart.

Years of dead money.

Ignored. Mocked. Written off.

Then suddenly it moves like something snapped.

That shape should feel familiar to anyone who’s lived through a Bitcoin cycle.

Gold moves first because of who owns it.

Central banks. Treasuries. Sovereigns staring at debt they can’t unwind.

Gold is the hedge when nation states need to buy time.

Bitcoin doesn’t serve that audience. Yet.

Bitcoin is the hedge for families.

For companies.

For balance sheets that don’t get a printing press.

That’s why gold and Bitcoin are positively correlated over the long run.

And why, in the short run, they often move opposite.

They trend together.

They cycle apart.

We’ve seen this movie before.

In 2020, gold and silver moved first.

Bitcoin went sideways for months.

Then Bitcoin repriced violently once the signal was undeniable.

Markets don’t move on fairness.

They move on positioning.

Here’s the part people get emotional about.

A shiny rock acting as the global monetary anchor in the age of the internet is non-sensical.

But markets don’t resolve nonsense immediately.

They stretch it.

Then they break it.

This is the debasement trade playing out in phases.

Gold is the early warning system.

Bitcoin is the endgame.

If you bail because the first phase isn’t Bitcoin-shaped yet, you miss the second.

The goal isn’t to win every quarter.

It’s to stay solvent longer than the market stays illogical.

Gold buys time for the system.

Bitcoin buys an exit from it.

Confusing those roles leads to bad decisions.

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