September Fed Meeting: What Analysts Are Saying

1. Ash Crypto

- If the FED cuts rates by 25 bps, markets will dump after the event because 25 is already priced in. (The market will pump hard if we get a 50 bps cut because that’s the bullish surprise everyone wants. ) 
- This becomes “sell the news” and US stocks dump from here, taking crypto with it. 
- We see the market dumping towards the end of September, everyone gets bearish, BTC dumps close to $100k, and ETH to $3800. 
- Market makers liquidate all the longs. 
- As soon as everyone becomes bearish, the market bounces back in early October. 
- Bitcoin hits new ATH $150k+ in Oct-Nov, and ETH follows it to $7500-$10,000. 
- Then BTC dominance drops, money starts flowing into alts, and we see 2-3 months of MEGA ALTSEASON where alts pump 10x-50x. 
- We get the Q4 parabolic pump like 2017 and 2021.
- Markets explode with back-to-back rate cuts until Q1 2026. 
- We retire our entire bloodline. 

Link: https://x.com/Ashcryptoreal/status/1968322800889766010

2. Lark Davis

The FOMC meeting is today.

And since 2020, every September FOMC (except during the 2022 bear) has set Bitcoin up for a massive pump.

This is regardless of whether the Fed cut rates or not.

It’s less about the decision itself, and more about seasonality.

$BTC thrives in this stretch. 

Uptober is real.

Link: https://x.com/TheCryptoLark/status/1968291408277578236

3. LondonCryptoClub

So this is the playbook for the Fed tonight and how it plays out over coming weeks

Fed cut 25bps (quite possibly 50bps)

Market chops as we all look at the dots and forecasts forgetting that the previous dots were wrong and quite useless

Then JPow speaks

He’ll note a softer labour market than previously thought, but inflation remains above target and economy generally looks ok but the downside risks to the labour increasing are why they cut

Lots of ink will be spilt on was it a hawkish cut or a dovish cut and which one is bearish or bullish for markets

If we initially knee jerk higher, markets will get levered long at the highs and all get washed out

If we initially knee jerk lower, markets will get levered short at the lows and all get washed out

Everyone chopped up, casino wins

Then things settle down

Calmer heads will note that whilst Labour market clearly soft, economy is slowing not collapsing and in fact recent data suggests still resilient

Inflation sticky but not accelerating

Then we realise that markets are a function of rates and liquidity and the rate environment just got easier

Yields lower and dollar weaker are reflexively positive for risk

The big money then over the next few weeks start to deploy real capital and everything melts up 

Funds under positioned risk throw the towel and forced to chase

Bitcoin and broader crypto finally catches up to the risk move and we push to 150k BTC into November, 6k ETH and broader alts all pumping

Bears in despair, bulls “just got lucky”

Link: https://x.com/LDNCryptoClub/status/1968262822166471058

4. Sykodelic

The last time the FED cut rates the market pumped very hard.

So I honestly do not understand why so many people are bearish about rate cuts?

We are quite literally, almost to the day, in the exact same position we were last time the FED cut rates.

IF we had been mega pumping into the rate cuts, I would be bearish...

But that has not happened.... and instead, we have been consolidating/chopping for over 2 months now.

It all lines up perfectly from the environment last time, as pictured.

On the 18th of September 2024, the FED cut 50bps and Bitcoin proceeded to pump 77% over the next 3 months, causing huge pumps market wide.

However, this time, the pumps will be taking the altcoin market into new highs.

In addition, every single time the FED has cut rates whilst the SPX is at ATH, the stock market has been higher a year later(i previously shared all the data on this).

Expect some short term volatility of course.... BTC hitting $112.5k is on the cards as the lowest low.

But the bottom line is that we're going much higher.

Link: https://x.com/Sykodelic_/status/1968074441105248474