Lookonchain APP

App Store

Why Selling in August Could Cost You Q4’s Biggest Gains

VirtualBacon
/2025.08.06 21:09:02
Despite FUD, weak jobs data, and short-term liquidity dips, August’s seasonal slowdown isn’t a bearish cycle. With rate cuts, QT pause, and SLR easing possible by Q4, now is the time to hold and position for a potential breakout, not panic sell.

🚨Why Selling in August is a Big Mistake🚨

Markets look shaky. FUD is everywhere. But if you sell now, you could miss the best setup of the year.

Here’s why I’m staying patient and what I’m doing instead👇

The fear is real:
🔸 Tariff headlines
🔸 Weak job data
🔸 Liquidity dip
🔸 ETF outflows

But zoom out, none of this changes the bigger picture. In fact, it’s setting up a perfect Q4 storm.

Let’s break it down.

Tariffs are just noise. Trump’s tariff pause now ends August 7. But he always uses tariffs as leverage, this is the same China playbook.

Markets might wobble short-term, but once the news is out, the uncertainty fades. Don’t panic sell on headlines.

The recent weak jobs report actually boosts the odds of Fed cuts.

May & June job growth was revised down by 258K. That’s massive.

Markets went from 39% to 86% odds of a September rate cut. Easing is back on the table.

The Treasury might pull $500B to refill its General Account, and yes, that could cause short-term chop.

But it’s not a liquidity collapse. It would still form a higher low on global liquidity charts.

But by Q4, we could get:
🔹 Rate cuts
🔹 QT pause
🔹 SLR exemption

August is the shakeout. September is the setup.

Historically, August is #Bitcoin’s weakest month.

TradFi slows down. Volumes drop. Chop increases.

But seasonality isn't the same as bearish trend. A slow August doesn’t mean a bearish cycle, just a pause before a potential Q4 breakout.

Bitcoin dominance bounced off its 50-week moving average, just like in prior cycles.

If it climbs to 66%, altcoins will bleed.

But more likely, we get a lower high followed by a breakdown. Until we see that breakdown, low caps stay risky.

Let's take a look at $BTC:

🔹 Still far above $91.5K support.
🔹 $103K-$104K = healthy buy zone.
🔹 $140K-$150K target still intact.

A small dip today isn’t worth exiting. This is a market to buy, not sell.

$ETH, $XRP, $SOL outlook:

🔹 $ETH looks solid as long as we stay above $2.7K.
🔹 $XRP needs to hold 0.000022 BTC and is still a buy between $2–$3.
🔹 $SOL has a must-hold $BTC ratio is 0.0012. That gives a USD floor around $110–$130. Still early on all three.

The large caps are holding up and this is where I’m focused.

🔹 $BNB (undervalued + benefits from Project Crypto).
🔹 $ADA (regulatory clarity as a commodity).
🔹 $DOGE, $TRX, $HYPE (near support).

Focus on safer names first. Rotation always starts here.

My strategy right now is simple:

🔹 Stack $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL, $ADA.
🔹 Rotating into large caps near support.
🔹 Use grid bots to auto-buy dips and take profits.

Don’t get shaken out now.

Rate cuts, QT pause, and SLR easing are all on the horizon.

Relevant content
Bitcoin’s Next Move: Sideways Relief Before a Deeper Bear Market?

Bitcoin may enter a prolonged sideways phase between $57K and $87K as markets enter a relief period following a 52% drop from ATH. This consolidation could mirror the 2022 fractal, creating liquidity before a potential breakdown toward the $44K–$50K range.

Doctor Profit/2026.03.09

From “Buy $1 of Bitcoin” to Token Controversies: The Davinci Jeremie Story

Davinci Jeremie urged people to buy $1 of Bitcoin in 2013 and became a symbol of early conviction. Years later, fame, lifestyle flexing, and token promotions sparked criticism. His journey reflects both crypto foresight and influencer-era controversy.

StarPlatinum/2026.03.04

Jane Street Under the Microscope: Liquidity, Derivatives, and Market Disruption Claims

A sweeping narrative ties Jane Street to India’s expiry-day options case, alleged 10AM Bitcoin sell patterns, Terra’s collapse, and ETF plumbing. While none prove misconduct, critics argue a common structure: move spot, monetize derivatives, keep execution opaque.

Bull Theory/2026.02.27

Jane Street, ETFs, and Bitcoin: Allegations, Market Structure, and the 10AM Debate

A controversial narrative links Jane Street, ETF mechanics, and Bitcoin’s price behavior, pointing to lawsuit allegations, 10AM volatility patterns, and derivative hedging dynamics. The discussion raises broader questions about liquidity, structure, and price discovery.

Justin Bechler/2026.02.26

Jane Street and Terra: Revisiting the UST Collapse Through New Allegations

A new federal lawsuit alleges Jane Street exploited non-public information tied to Terraform’s liquidity defenses, accelerating UST’s depeg and the Terra collapse. The firm denies the claims. The case may reignite debates on structure, design, and regulation.

Diana/2026.02.25

Bitcoin at Extremes: Oversold Signals and the Bottom Formation Thesis

Mean reversion and on-chain models sit at levels historically linked to bottom formation after capitulation. Realized losses reached record USD values, while deviations from anchor models remain extreme. Price pain may be fading; patience remains key.

Checkmate/2026.02.25