Raoul Pal’s Crypto Playbook: Why the Next 12 Months Could Be Life-Changing

The macro legend @RaoulGMI's Sui Basecamp speech was pure Alpha
He laid out the most bullish case for crypto I've ever seen
It changes EVERYTHING about how you should position for the next 12 months
10 staggering revelations: 🧵
1. Raoul revealed that 90% of Bitcoin's price movements are driven by ONE factor:
Global Liquidity
This isn't speculation - it's mathematical reality with a 90% correlation
While everyone debates Fed cuts and tariffs, they're missing what ACTUALLY moves markets
2. The "Everything Code" framework exposes the greatest wealth transfer mechanism in history
8% global currency debasement + 3% inflation = 11% annual wealth erosion
It's a silent tax hurting everyone. If you don't make 11% annually, you're net negative
The only escape? Crypto
3. Bitcoin's logarithmic regression channel shows we're still remarkably cheap
At just 2 standard deviations, BTC would reach $850,000 🤯
And we've barely entered what Raoul calls "The Banana Zone" - the explosive phase of the market cycle
4. Markets are OBSESSED with narratives that explain today using liquidity conditions from 3 months ago
This fundamental misunderstanding is why so many traders get wrecked
Financial conditions lead liquidity, which leads markets - with a consistent 3-month lag
5. The 12-week Global M2 liquidity chart that Raoul pioneered has been STUNNINGLY accurate
He called it "the most voodoo-like chart I've ever come across"
Look at the perfect alignment - and what it's forecasting for the rest of 2025
6. Raoul revealed he's allocated almost all his personal capital to $SUI
"I use the SOL/SUI chart as my compass for what's the strongest performing horse in the race"
This is perhaps the strongest endorsement possible from a macro legend with 35+ years experience
7. The real trigger for Alt Season isn't BTC dominance or ETF flows - it's the ISM Manufacturing Index
When ISM crosses above 50 and trends up, we enter perfect conditions for explosive altcoin growth
Forward indicators suggest we're about to see this EXACT scenario play out
8. Investor sentiment has reached historic bearish extremes:
• All-time record low bullishness in Investor Intelligence Survey
• VIX spikes in top 3 of all time
• Bear sentiment exceeded only twice in history
This level of fear has preceded EVERY major crypto rally
9. The current setup is identical to 2017's Trump tariff cycle:
• Initial market panic ✓
• Dollar strength then reversal ✓
• Economic surprise index bottoming ✓
• Liquidity expansion beginning ✓
The difference? Last time Bitcoin did 23X from this exact point
10. We've already had 7 significant corrections in this cycle (20%+)
Each time, fear convinced investors "it's over" - yet nobody remembers them just months later
These pullbacks are mathematically necessary for the larger uptrend to continue
Forward-looking indicators suggest this crypto cycle extends far longer than most expect
Raoul's models point to Q1/Q2 2026 as the potential peak
This aligns perfectly with U.S. midterm elections when maximum liquidity will be in the system
The simple playbook according to Raoul:
"Don't f*ck this up. Don't lose control of your tokens. Don't use leverage. Don't get your wallets hacked. Just sit with it."
The hardest part isn't finding the right tokens - it's managing your psychology through volatility
The most powerful insight: we're nowhere near cycle top indicators
We're at the same subdued levels seen in 2013 before the largest bull run in crypto history
The upside from here isn't just substantial...
It's potentially life-changing
This isn't just about getting rich - it's about understanding the most fundamental economic shift of our lifetime
Central banks are debasing currency at unprecedented rates, giving crypto an unstoppable tailwind
The next 12-18 months will change everything
Remain bullish frens
Cetus Protocol, the largest LP on Sui Network, was exploited due to an oracle bug, draining over $200M in liquidity. The attacker is converting stolen funds to ETH via Tornado Cash. Sui Network remains unaffected; the issue is isolated to Cetus. The team is working with Mysten Labs to resolve the problem.
StarPlatinum/2 hours ago

Altcoins don’t need billions to pump—just thin liquidity. A $10M market cap coin can 2x with $500K of buy pressure and crash with just $200K of sells. This thread breaks down the role of liquidity vs. market cap, why FDV and unlocks matter, and how smart traders exploit low float tokens for explosive gains.
cyclop/3 days ago

$USELESS flips the crypto hate narrative into fuel. From being called “useless” by critics like Bill Gates and Jamie Dimon, this memecoin turns mockery into virality. Backed by elite alpha groups, fast-growing holders, and strong price action, $USELESS could be the next $FARTCOIN or $PEPE-level breakout.
Unipcs/5 days ago

A savvy whale who made over $1.1M on $LaunchCoin and $ICM is now quietly accumulating new Internet Capital Markets (ICM) tokens. His wallet shows early entries into low-cap alts like $DUPE, $SKYAI, $HOUSE, $GORK, and more—each with growing whale volume. ICM, the new Solana meta, turns app ideas into tradable assets and is fueling a fresh memecoin supercycle.
Tracer/6 days ago

Crypto veteran says this is the clearest altseason setup in 7 years: BTC is near ATH, ETH/BTC broke its 3-year downtrend, alt indexes are bouncing, and retail is still out. With major macro and on-chain indicators aligned, it could be the start of a major altcoin run.
cyclop/2025.05.15

LAUNCHCOIN, formerly PASTERNAK, went from a 99% crash and meme status to a $280M market cap. Held and accumulated by a few true believers during its sub-$1M lows, it’s now the hottest project in crypto. The story underscores the power of conviction, community, and narrative.
Unipcs/2025.05.14

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