Lookonchain APP

App Store

$BTC Sunday Update: Liquidity, Price Action, and Potential Manipulation

CrypNuevo
/2025.04.14 23:48:03
The $BTC market is experiencing volatility due to tariffs and manipulation, but liquidity levels and price action remain key. The $90k-$91.5k range is crucial for potential liquidations, with a focus on the 1D50EMA and 1W50EMA for compression and possible breakout. A third retest of the 1W50EMA could lead to an aggressive move, but manipulation often influences price action, so strategic positioning is essential.

$BTC Sunday update:

Tariffs chaos and manipulation aside, there are some conclusive ideas and data to know and to be aware of this week.
Let's focus on the liquidity and potential Price Action for the upcoming volatile days. More action incoming...

Liquidations:
Mainly located to the upside in that $90k-$91.5k (psychological level) 👀
Only adding this chart because the liquidation delta is not too unbalanced, currently 15B longs in max. liquidity setting, so not too high at least for now. Over 25B would get my attention.

My ideal scenario for this week is something like this:
Compression between the 1D50EMA and 1W50EMA leads to expansion.
We got 2 retests of the 1W50EMA that reassures me of its strength. Perhaps it's time to start thinking of a potential breakout/shift out the zone.

Could we get a third retest? Why not!
Market often moves in threes (three taps patterrn) and it would even compress price more, leading to a more aggresive move later.
It depends on that yellow line as the mid range and local support. Slightly less likely maybe, but I like it.

Last week's plan ended up playing out even with all the news, chaos and volatility 🔨
I think news are very often only used to manipulate price action in the way they want. So, sometimes it's just better to project that potential manipulation in order to position yourself well.

Relevant content
America’s Bitcoin Advantage: Morgan Stanley’s Strategic Signal

Morgan Stanley now considers Bitcoin large enough to be a strategic reserve asset. While they still cite volatility concerns, U.S. entities already hold 35–40% of Bitcoin’s supply—far more than gold—signaling a unique national incentive to see Bitcoin succeed. The shift from legacy assets to BTC is accelerating, and the U.S. may be quietly positioning itself as the dominant Bitcoin superpower.

Swan/18 hours ago

Zerebro Dev Fakes His Own Death in Crypto’s First Pseudocide Exit

The developer behind Zerebro staged his own suicide—complete with obituaries and tribute posts—only to be revealed alive through a letter sent to an early investor. He admitted it was a calculated move to escape without crashing the token price. The space mourned a death that never happened, marking crypto’s first known pseudocide exit.

Daniele/2 days ago

Raoul Pal’s Crypto Playbook: Why the Next 12 Months Could Be Life-Changing

Macro investor Raoul Pal gave a wildly bullish crypto outlook at Sui Basecamp, citing global liquidity as the key driver of BTC price (90% correlation). He predicts an explosive “Banana Zone” ahead, with altseason triggered by ISM rising above 50. Pal is nearly all-in on $SUI, expecting the cycle to peak in Q1/Q2 2026. His advice: stay patient, avoid leverage, and prepare for a potential life-changing run.

eye zen hour/3 days ago

12 Years in Crypto: Painful Lessons You Don’t Have to Learn the Hard Way

After 12 years in crypto, this trader shares brutal lessons from lost coins, scams, black swans, and missed gains. From early Bitcoin mistakes to DeFi and NFT highs and crashes, he emphasizes adaptability, taking profits, and surviving to stay in the game. The market evolves—so must you.

Pix/2025.05.01

Bitcoin Supply Is Drying Up—But Why Isn’t the Price Soaring?

Bitcoin exchange balances just hit a 5-year low, with large inflows into ETFs and institutional custody. Despite major buys by MicroStrategy and others, prices remain stable due to strategic accumulation and persistent sellers. However, institutional demand is compressing supply faster than miners can replenish, setting the stage for a powerful, non-linear price move.

Swan/2025.05.01

Calling the ETH Bottom: Opportunity in the $1.5K–$2K Range

The author believes ETH has bottomed in the $1,500–$2,000 range, mirroring their earlier successful BTC bottom call. With BTC dominance peaking, DXY weakening, and sentiment low, ETH is seen as undervalued late in the cycle. The setup suggests ETH could reclaim $4,000, offering a strong risk-adjusted opportunity.

Astronomer/2025.04.29