Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Michael Saylor Proposes "Perfect" Digital Currency Vision: A Bitcoin-backed stablecoin pegged to the U.S. Dollar that can deliver 6% to 8% returns.

Strategy CEO Michael Saylor outlined his vision for a "perfect" digital currency at ParaFi Investor Day: a dollar-pegged stablecoin backed by Bitcoin that would generate roughly 6% to 8% returns. He noted this would be the next step for digital capital and digital credit products.

A crypto whale closed a $110 million long Bitcoin (BTC) position, incurring a $3.26 million loss and shifting to open a long position in US stocks.

According to EmberCN’s monitoring, a crypto whale’s previously established $110 million BTC long position failed to trigger its $80,500 market stop-loss. The whale closed the BTC long position at 5 AM today, then turned to opening long positions in US equities. At 4 AM today, BTC hit a low of $80,684—just $184 away from its $80,500 stop-loss level—but did not decline further to trigger the sell order. The whale closed the long position at $80,949 at 5 AM, resulting in a total loss of $3.26 million, before opening $45.8 million worth of US stock long contracts, including TSLA, DRAM, and SOXL.

The crypto market remains in sideways consolidation, with Bitcoin seeing a slight rebound to break above $82,000, while major tokens have all risen by less than 1%.

According to HTX market data, the crypto market remains range-bound and volatile. Bitcoin broke above $82,000 this morning, while Ethereum surpassed $2,400, both with gains of less than 1%. ZEC is currently priced at $1,131, SOL at $104, BNB at $723, and HYPE at $78.8, all with minor increases. The total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.785 trillion, down 1.4% over the past 24 hours. Leading altcoin gainers include GTC (up ~13%), AMP (~12%), QKC (~12%), OSMO (~11%), SENT (~8%), and CVX (~7%). Leading altcoin losers are AVA (down ~20%), A (~20%), LSK (~14%), DUSK (~11%), GNS (~9%), and EDU (~9%).

Galaxy Research analyzes why Bitcoin weakened in October, pointing to weak corporate treasury buying and ETF outflows as the primary causes.

Galaxy Research Head of Research Alex Thorn points out that Bitcoin’s weakness in October is tied to weak growth in corporate Bitcoin reserves and net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Using the “institutional absorption vs. long-term holder address distribution” metric for analysis, the calculation is: spot ETF net inflows plus net additions to corporate reserves, minus the amount of Bitcoin that has been dormant on-chain for over five years and reactivated. Data shows that as of October 18, the year-to-date net value of this metric stood at roughly negative 127,300 BTC, meaning the distribution of old coins from long-term holding addresses has overall outpaced institutional uptake. The analyst also noted that the year-to-date net inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to positive territory in September and has barely held steady since, currently at around $355 million, with a small net outflow recorded so far in October.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin has completed bottom hunting to liquidate long positions, may shift to a short squeeze next week, and maintains a bullish stance above $79,800.

Renowned trader Killa reviewed Bitcoin’s weekly chart trends, noting that last week, BTC fell from $87,000 to the $80,000 range before bouncing back 50%. After the current weekly chart opened, the token rallied on Monday but faced persistent resistance, eventually retesting the prior week’s low around $80,000. Currently, longs are the main targets of market liquidations, so there’s a high chance the trend will shift to targeting shorts next week. For short-term trades, closely watch for a retest of this week’s low at $79,800; if that occurs, look for long entry opportunities. Killa laid out a clear observation framework: If BTC does not retest the lows, focus on the $83,600 level. If the price fails to break above this level, the market will remain in a range-bound capitulation phase; if it breaks through successfully, the rally will push higher. He expects next week’s weekly chart open will move upward, forcing late shorts who entered short positions against the recent rally to cover their positions. In the worst-case scenario for bulls, BTC could dip to the $76,000–$78,000 range. The analyst also explicitly ruled out the extreme scenario of a retest of $74,000.

Bitcoin Jesus renounced his U.S. citizenship to evade taxes, only to be ordered to pay nearly $50 million in expatriation tax a decade later.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Justice announced a deferred prosecution agreement with Roger Ver, known as "Bitcoin Jesus", under which fraud and tax evasion charges against him will be dropped in exchange for a maximum fine of $49.9 million. As one of the earliest Bitcoin evangelists, Ver purchased large amounts of Bitcoin in 2011 for less than $3 million. In February 2014, to avoid high tax burdens, he obtained citizenship of the Caribbean island nation of St. Kitts and Nevis, and renounced his U.S. citizenship the following month. At that time, he and his companies held at least 131,000 Bitcoin, worth over $70 million at the then-current price. He thought changing his nationality would let him escape the U.S.'s high taxes, but the U.S.'s strict "expatriation tax" foiled his plan. Under U.S. tax law, eligible expatriates must treat their global assets as if sold on the day before expatriation and pay capital gains tax. Ver reported $1.03 million in taxes, but not only failed to disclose his personal Bitcoin holdings, he also severely undervalued his company assets. A decade later, the IRS uncovered his fraudulent tax evasion (fraud and tax evasion are not subject to statute of limitations), ultimately forcing him to pay up to $49.9 million in back taxes, penalties, and interest—48 times the amount he had self-reported paying that year.

Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, possibly signaling an increase in his BTC holdings.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates related to its Bitcoin Tracker, stating, "We found room for more orange." Per established patterns, orange dots mark Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase records, so this move likely signals the company will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes in its Bitcoin position the day after such announcements. On October 12, Strategy revealed it had added 250 BTC the prior week, bringing its dollar reserves down to $5.52 billion (a decrease of $193 million), while its total Bitcoin holdings rose to 848,250 BTC.

Strive's CEO released Bitcoin Tracker information, hinting that the company will announce another increase in its Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin treasury firm Strive CEO Matt Cole shared a Bitcoin holdings chart, captioned "Now stacking sats with double the horsepower", hinting that he will disclose data on the firm’s Bitcoin (BTC) additions next week. Strive recently added 2,822 BTC between October 12 and 13 at an average price of approximately $83,266 per coin. The acquisition cost $235 million, bringing the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 35,600 coins.

Viewpoint: This round of growth in small and mid-cap altcoins has far outpaced Bitcoin, and their high sensitivity means the trend is prone to rapid reversals.

Crypto analyst Darkfost stated in a post that since the end of August, mid-cap and small-cap tokens have posted the strongest market capitalization growth. Data shows the gap between the annual average and monthly average market cap of these assets has continued to widen, with the current ratio reaching 41%. By contrast, Bitcoin’s growth trend is positive but limited, standing at only 7%, while large-cap assets have an even lower ratio of 3.5%. The analyst pointed out this is a quite rare phenomenon. Normally, Bitcoin drives market trends, as was clearly seen in the period after the end of the 2023 bear market. However, mid-cap and small-cap tokens are more sensitive to market funds and sentiment, and their trends may reverse rapidly in either direction in the short term. Investors need to be alert to the high volatility risks brought by this structural feature.

Analyst: If Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance level of $82,000, it may accelerate its upward move to test $90,000.

Crypto analyst Micha?l van de Poppe posted that Bitcoin’s price range is gradually narrowing, with volatility declining, signaling a major price swing is likely ahead—but a "false move" could occur first. He noted that this false move could push Bitcoin’s price below $80,000, to the "blue box" zone marked on his chart. This zone has already been tested once before, and he would not be surprised if it is retested, calling it an ideal entry area. On the upside, he stated that if Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance level of $82,000, its rally will accelerate and likely move toward $90,000.

Analyst: Bitcoin’s MVRV percentile drops below 30, still aligning with the characteristics of an accumulation zone.

Crypto analyst Darkfost posted that after Bitcoin hit resistance near $87,000, the MVRV percentile fell back below 30, marking a return to the post-market capitulation transition phase. He argues the current valuation still aligns with the traits of an accumulation zone. Darkfost explains that MVRV is used to compare Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, where the latter is calculated based on the price of each BTC at the time of its most recent on-chain transfer. His approach does not rely solely on the raw MVRV value; instead, he measures the current value’s relative position in its historical evolution to reduce the impact of Bitcoin’s structural shifts and market cycles on indicator interpretation, while analyzing it within the current market environment. He points out that Bitcoin has only been at this valuation level roughly 25% of the time in its history. Though it has now exited the extreme undervaluation zone that historically always coincided with market lows, it still fits the characteristics of a typical historical accumulation zone.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $228.4 million this week, with IBIT posting the largest net outflow.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a combined net outflow of $228.4 million this week. Specifically, IBIT saw a net outflow of $165.4 million, FBTC recorded a net outflow of $60.2 million, BTC had a net outflow of $7.6 million, and BTCO posted a net outflow of $4.1 million. Meanwhile, MSBT and BITB notched net inflows of $6.7 million and $2.2 million respectively.

Bitcoin surpasses $82,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through the $82,000 mark, with a 0.52% gain in the past 24 hours.

Two Bitcoin wallets dormant for over 12 years have transferred approximately 416.69 BTC, with unrealized profits reaching $33.71 million.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, two whale wallets dormant for 12 to 13 years have transferred a combined 416.6941 BTC (valued at approximately $33.82 million) to the same address. Specifically, the wallet dormant for 13 years sent out 167.8402 BTC worth around $13.62 million, while the 12-year-dormant wallet transferred 248.8539 BTC valued at roughly $20.20 million. The original value of these BTC was about $105,400, marking an increase of approximately $33.71 million from their initial worth.

Bloomberg analyst issues alarmist warning: A 20% pullback in U.S. stocks could send Bitcoin tumbling to its $10,000 support level.

Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone wrote in a post yesterday that a 20% pullback in U.S. stocks could push Bitcoin toward the $10,000 support level. "The first cryptocurrency (BTC), launched in 2009, led the rally in risk assets, but Bitcoin’s 2025 peak above $100,000, gold’s rise to over $5,000 in Q1, and most central banks turning cautious amid surging government bond yields may signal the end of this cycle," he noted. In response, crypto analyst Darkfost countered that a 20% U.S. stock pullback has never historically aligned with a roughly 92% drop in Bitcoin from its highs, so he deemed the price target "highly unlikely."

Well-known trader Killa: Bitcoin may bottom out before the midterm elections, and the post-midterm rally requires caution.

Well-known trader Killa recently released a video predicting market trends around the U.S. midterm elections. His analysis summarizes the historical timeline correlation between midterm elections and Bitcoin’s bottoming: in 2014, Bitcoin bottomed roughly 70 days after the midterms; in 2018, 40-44 days post-midterms; in 2022, it bottomed almost during the midterm period itself. He believes Bitcoin could form a weekly-level bottom ahead of the November 3 U.S. midterms. Killa outlined two main scenarios: 1. Early bottom scenario: BTC forms a low before or around the midterms (possibly testing the current low, or holding above $80k), then rebounds, first testing the $80k zone, and potentially hitting $95k eventually. This would lead to a bullish fourth quarter, contrary to the widespread expectation of "post-election de-risking". 2. Classic de-risking scenario: Bitcoin rallies to a high (possibly hitting $94-$95k), then sees the typical post-election sell-off/de-risking drop observed in history (3 out of the past 4 midterm cycles followed this pattern). Killa advises investors to closely monitor price action ahead of the midterms and adjust positions accordingly: if an early bottom forms, hold bullish positions post-election; if the rally weakens after peaking, consider de-risking. He stresses that patterns are accelerating, so the historical "post-election must fall" experience cannot be simply copied. As a quantitative trader focused on BTC, Killa correctly predicted the peak of the current bull market in May 2025, and has over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, and switched to long positions during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

Vitalik compares the costs of Bitcoin (BTC) mining and AI inference: electricity costs make up nearly half of the former, while the latter relies more on computing power capital expenditure.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published a post noting that roughly half of Bitcoin mining costs come from capital expenditure on mining hardware, with the other half attributed to electricity consumption. By contrast, AI inference costs are almost entirely dominated by computing hardware capital expenditure, a difference that reflects the distinct cost structures of the two computing businesses. Bitcoin miners must cover ongoing electricity bills, with profit margins determined by mining machine efficiency, Bitcoin prices, and changes in network difficulty; AI inference, meanwhile, relies far more on investments in expensive hardware such as GPUs, as well as device utilization rates and computing efficiency. The industrial boundaries between the two sectors are also shifting. As demand for AI computing power grows, some Bitcoin mining firms are repurposing existing power resources and data center facilities for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) services, aiming to transition from pure mining to computing infrastructure services. Reuters previously reported that some mining companies are leveraging power capacity originally built for mining to enter the AI data center market. However, this transition does not eliminate cost pressures: mining businesses are more directly exposed to fluctuations in electricity prices and Bitcoin prices, while AI computing operations face risks including GPU procurement, depreciation, and underutilization. Both sectors compete for power and computing resources, but their ultimate profitability depends on how effectively these resources are converted into revenue.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $82.4 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $69.7 million.

According to Farside's monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $82.4 million yesterday, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $69.7 million, marking three consecutive trading days of net outflows.

Fidelity: Correlation Between Bitcoin's Market Cap and US Treasury Yields Hits All-Time High

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an analysis noting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since Bitcoin’s inception, while the size of U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with interest payments exceeding Medicare to become the second-largest expenditure item in the federal budget. Fidelity pointed out that Bitcoin’s correlation with the 10-year U.S. real interest rate was long low, but has gradually turned positive in recent years, rising above 0.6 in 2026, a record high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has rallied nearly 30%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has jumped more than 10% in the same period. Fidelity argues that amid rising government debt, higher financing costs and growing concerns over fiscal intervention, Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins may boost its appeal as a potential hedge against currency devaluation and a portfolio diversification tool. If current debt and interest rate trends persist, government interest payments could even become the largest expenditure item in the federal budget in the future. U.S. Treasury data shows that the U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal 2026 rose to $1.99 trillion, up from $1.78 trillion in fiscal 2025, the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the Trump administration’s pledge to cut spending, military spending, Social Security expenditures and Treasury interest payments continue to climb, coupled with a decline in corporate tax revenue, further expanding the fiscal deficit.

TD Cowen raises Strive’s price target by 27% to $56, bullish on its continued Bitcoin accumulation.

TD Cowen analysts raised the target price of Bitcoin reserve company Strive (ticker: ASST) from $44 to $56, a roughly 27% increase. The analysts noted that Strive’s Bitcoin purchases over the past two weeks have already surpassed its full fourth-quarter forecast. As of now, Strive holds 35,595 BTC, valued at around $2.9 billion at current prices—an increase of nearly 7,600 BTC from the 28,000 it held at the end of September, exceeding TD Cowen’s prior Q4 target of 4,750 BTC added. Its Bitcoin holdings now rank fourth among public listed firms, slightly higher than MARA’s reported position. On the financing front, Strive expanded its SATS preferred stock offering to 7 million shares, priced at $90 per share, with a planned raise of $630 million, expected to close on October 20. TD Cowen believes this offering will fund further Bitcoin purchases while avoiding common stock issuance. The analysts also pointed out that prior warrant exercises had increased diluted share counts, pressuring Bitcoin yields, but with the $27 strike price warrants now exhausted, the related pressure is expected to ease.

Perspective: Bitcoin may need to rally above $350,000 before entering a deep bear market, with a projected 70% to 80% price drop.

Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland recently stated in a post that Bitcoin could enter a deep bear market in the coming years, with a potential decline of 70% to 80%. However, due to strong support in the $100,000 to $125,000 range, he believes Bitcoin may first need to rally to $350,000 or even higher to create space for the next significant correction. Hyland also pointed out that this cycle could last 8 years instead of the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle. He added that the macroeconomic headwinds of this cycle have lasted twice as long as those of prior cycles, leading to a corresponding extension of Bitcoin's cycle timeline, and he projects Bitcoin will peak in 2028.

Bitcoin drops below $81,000, Ethereum falls below $2,400

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped below $81,000, with a current price of $80,936. Ethereum has fallen below $2,400, now priced at $2,397.

Bitcoin mining difficulty rises by 5.92% to 140.58 T.

According to data from mempool.space, Bitcoin completed its latest mining difficulty adjustment at block height 971712 at 20:37:31 Beijing Time today, with the difficulty rising by 5.92% to 140.58T.

Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for MSTR to $208, and forecasts Bitcoin will climb to $112,000 over the next 12 months.

Investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald today raised its price target for Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) from $186 to $208, while maintaining an Overweight rating. Analyst Ramsey El-Assal upgraded his 12-month Bitcoin price forecast from $98,000 to $112,000 in the latest report. The report also updated the company’s latest Bitcoin holdings data (approximately 848,000 coins) and lifted its enterprise value valuation from around $97 billion to roughly $110 billion. The adjustment reflects the analyst’s more optimistic assessment of the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves, though the market remains focused on related risks such as whether the company may be removed from some MSCI indices.

Bitcoin ETFs See $15.86M Inflow, Ethereum ETFs Lose $60.84M in Single Day

Oct 16 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +194 $BTC(+$15.86M)?? 7D NetFlow: -1,643 $BTC(-$134.56M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -24,792 $ETH(-$60.84M)?? 7D NetFlow: -119,753 $ETH(-$293.85M)??

Lightning Labs unveils LayerTree, a Bitcoin scaling solution that allows up to around 1 million users to share a single UTXO.

Lightning Labs has proposed a Bitcoin scaling solution called LayerTree, a non-custodial architecture that allows up to around 1 million users to share a single UTXO and connect to the Lightning Network. Balances are recorded in an off-chain Merkle-sum tree, with the shared output committing to the tree’s root, enabling users to exit unilaterally via a single transaction. The scheme depends on as-yet-unactivated Bitcoin consensus layer changes—such as covenant-related opcodes—and cannot be directly deployed on the mainnet at this time. The project team states that LayerTree is a design and reference implementation, and the opcodes it uses remain proposals rather than active consensus rules.

Analysis: Bitcoin short-term holders’ holdings rise to 4.08 million coins, up 422,000 from July’s low.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that short-term holders currently hold approximately 4.08 million bitcoin, the highest level since mid-June. Since the July 29 low, this holding has risen by around 422,000 units, a 12% increase. Of that total, some 154,000 bitcoin were added in the first two weeks of October, and a further 48,000 in the past week. He added that most new buyers entered the market in the $82,000 to $86,000 range. As of press time, the average cost basis for short-term holders stands at roughly $74,900, with their unrealized profit buffer narrowing from about 16% to around 10%. Adler noted that $74,900 is the breakeven point for this group, and bitcoin prices have remained above this cost level since August 20. A drop below this threshold would push the group into overall unrealized losses, potentially intensifying selling pressure.

Analyst: As interest rate hike expectations rise, short positions in the Bitcoin derivatives market have regained dominance.

Crypto analyst Darkfost noted in a post that the BTC funding rate on Binance has turned negative, currently standing at -0.0073%. A negative funding rate typically signals strong market short demand, with the overall derivatives market sentiment clearly leaning bearish. The last time this occurred was in June this year, when BTC traded around $62,000. It is important to note that Binance’s funding rate formula uses a 0.01% interest rate parameter, so the neutral funding rate is not 0% but 0.01%. The current rate falling below zero means short positions have clearly gained the upper hand. This signal warrants attention, especially against the backdrop of this week’s underperforming macroeconomic data: both U.S. CPI and PPI came in higher than expected, further stoking market expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, BTC has seen a notable correction since breaking above $87,000 a few days ago. Historically, when the market forms a highly consistent bearish outlook, prices sometimes move in the opposite direction, which may indicate a trend reversal, though the duration of such reversals varies widely. While this signal has reference value, traders still need to carefully develop entry strategies in combination with key technical levels. Two key price levels to monitor currently are $80,000 and $74,000.

Analyst: The recent sell pressure driving Bitcoin’s decline mainly stems from short-term holders, with the intensity of such pressure easing.

Crypto market analyst Murphy noted that the volume of Bitcoin (BTC) transfers from short-term holders (STHs) to trading platforms has risen significantly recently, with an average of around 2,200 BTC moved per hour over four hours, marking the fourth highest peak since the start of this year’s August market rally. However, the transfer volume on October 15 was lower than that on October 8, indicating that selling pressure from STHs has eased somewhat. In contrast, long-term holders (LTHs) transferred a smaller amount to trading platforms yesterday, with an average of only around 480 BTC per hour over four hours—less than one-fifth of the STHs’ volume. This shows that amid recent market declines and rising expectations of macro headwinds, LTHs as a whole remain relatively stable. It is worth noting that LTHs’ transfer volume on October 8 once hit 3,700 BTC per hour. While it cannot be ruled out that some holders temporarily moved assets due to hardware wallet-related issues, the large transfers from both LTHs and STHs that day, paired with Bitcoin’s rapid price drop, confirm there was indeed actual selling pressure in the market at that time. During the recent Bitcoin downturn, the main entities transferring assets to trading platforms were STHs, with LTHs staying stable overall, and STHs’ transfer scale has decreased compared to October 8.

Capital B posted a net loss of approximately 69.5 million euros in the first half of the year, primarily due to impairment of Bitcoin (BTC).

Bitcoin treasury firm Capital B released its H1 2026 financial results, reporting revenue of €5.846 million, a 3.5% year-over-year rise; net loss reached approximately €69.5 million, compared to a net loss of €1.9 million in the same period last year. The loss was mainly driven by an additional impairment charge of around €67.5 million booked based on BTC prices as of June 30, which had no cash impact. As of September 30, the company’s strategic reserve held 3,538 BTC, a 25.3% increase from January, with a total acquisition cost of €310.6 million, averaging €87,805 per BTC. The announcement confirmed that as of October 15, the strategic reserve count remained at 3,538 BTC, with an extra 61 BTC held for operational use, which are not included in strategic reserve-related metrics. The company announced about €27.5 million in financing during H1, and another €31.7 million in financing between the end of the first half and the announcement date. As of September 30, the company’s available cash stood at €4.6 million, which, combined with the operational BTC, totaled roughly €9.1 million in value.

A whale that shifted its holdings from Bitcoin to Ethereum has purchased another 9,820 ETH.

According to Yuqing Monitoring, whales and institutions that sold BTC to buy ETH continued their activity over the past day: they sold 288.9 BTC for 23.48 million USDC, then used the proceeds to purchase 9,820 ETH. Over the past five days, these entities have collectively sold 1,601.1 BTC for 132 million USDC, and in turn bought 53,095 ETH at an average price of $2,497.

Justin Sun on Quantum Threat: Market Severely Underestimates Potential Devastating Impact of Q-Day on Bitcoin’s Price

Justin Sun recently discussed the potential threat of quantum computing to the crypto industry in an interview, noting, "Mathematics is extremely critical to the crypto sector, and right now everyone is focused on quantum attacks. Tron is advancing and implementing NIST (U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology) post-quantum encryption standards to enable blockchains to resist quantum attacks. This technology is already live on the testnet, and is expected to roll out on the mainnet as early as the start of next year. Many people have severely underestimated the destructive power of Quantum Threat Day (Q-Day). Most in the crypto industry have no clue how slow the Bitcoin network’s consensus mechanism is. I’ve been part of the Bitcoin community since 2012, and the entire community’s technological progress has been very gradual. Even if the entire network clearly knows a certain disaster will strike in two years, getting the entire Bitcoin network to reach consensus and complete an upgrade in just that timeframe is an almost impossible task. Fund managers at major U.S. financial institutions like BlackRock simply haven’t spent enough time researching this issue. In their traditional mindset, this might seem like a bug in Apple’s iOS system: two minutes later, Apple releases an update patch, everyone clicks to upgrade, and the problem is fixed. But the technological evolution of public blockchains is nothing like that. These institutions have invested tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars in Bitcoin, yet they don’t actually participate in its development, don’t understand its underlying technology, and don’t care about its technical evolution—just like a fund manager who buys Apple stock won’t study iOS’s underlying code daily. Quantum Threat Day will definitely be a major headache, and the market has severely underestimated the potential devastating impact Q-Day could have on Bitcoin’s price."

Crypto mining firm Hut 8 reportedly sold 1,589 Bitcoin over the past two days.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet linked to crypto mining firm Hut 8 has deposited 1,589 BTC (valued at $130 million) to a centralized exchange (CEX) over the past two days, likely for sale. The company holds a total of 10,278 BTC, worth $845.6 million.

Bitcoin rebounds from its recent low, while previously strong cryptocurrencies have rallied rapidly, with NEAR surging nearly 10%.

After Bitcoin bottomed at $80,000 and rebounded, previously strong altcoins have posted notable gains overnight into this morning. According to HTX market data: NEAR is trading at $5.3281, up 9.9% over 24 hours; ZEC is at $1234.78, up 8.53% over 24 hours; PYTH is at $0.09335, up 10.5% over 24 hours, hitting a new high since last November; INJ is at $8.563, up 11.98% over 24 hours, also hitting a new high since last November.

A whale opened max leveraged long positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum 4 hours ago, with positions worth $187 million.

According to Yu Jing Monitoring, a whale address (0x30afce2f6842bf183c7e3fe7162e279ff0b6393e) opened a maximum-leverage long position worth $187 million four hours ago. The position includes 1,822 BTC (valued at $150 million) with an entry price of $82,409 and a liquidation price of $80,634, plus 15,270 ETH (valued at $37.33 million) with an entry price of $2,455 and a liquidation price of $2,406. The whale’s most profitable previous trade netted $14.8 million: it opened a long position in NEAR at $2.14 in late August and took profits at $4.88 in late September.

Bitcoin briefly surpassed $82,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $82,000 mark, with a 0.02% increase in the past 24 hours.

Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO): Bitcoin Likely to Benefit Long-Term, Regardless of AI Boom or Its Bubble Burst

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated in a client report that Bitcoin is likely to benefit in the long run regardless of whether AI drives an economic boom, an investment bubble bursts, or the economy grows only moderately. In the scenario where the AI bubble bursts and triggers a recession similar to 2008, given AI’s geopolitical significance, he puts the probability of subsequent government bailouts at “nearly 100%”. Bitcoin may first face a sell-off before rallying sharply amid a surge in the money supply. If AI significantly lifts productivity and GDP while cutting costs in sectors like software and legal services, Hougan forecasts that scarce assets such as Bitcoin will appreciate. Should the economy sustain 3% growth, 4% interest rates and a near soft landing, Bitcoin will still be supported by ETF inflows, adoption by financial advisors, and allocations on corporate and sovereign balance sheets. He cautioned that Bitcoin will not rise in a straight line, with some scenarios potentially involving difficult initial phases. Threats including quantum computing, coordinated government crackdowns, or renewed fiscal austerity by Western governments could also undermine his thesis; he considers these scenarios unlikely but not impossible.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through $81,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to break through the $81,000 level, with a 1.29% decline in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin falls below $80,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000, recording a 3.48% drop in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs see massive outflows: $257.7M BTC and $91.19M ETH in 24 hours

Oct 15 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -3,209 $BTC(-$257.7M)?? 7D NetFlow: -5,250 $BTC(-$421.57M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -38,915 $ETH(-$91.19M)?? 7D NetFlow: -133,537 $ETH(-$312.9M)??

Analyst: Bitcoin may pull back to test $74,600, medium-term trend remains bullish.

Crypto analyst Darkfost noted in a post that Bitcoin’s technical fundamentals have not seen material changes: the 5th sub-wave of Wave 1 has ended at the expected level, and a Wave 2 correction may follow. This correction could dip to $74,600, aligning with the standard 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen below the 21-period EMA and is trading at the support of the 50-period EMA, which he considers a strong support level; the 200-period EMA stands at around $75,800, still some distance from the current price. The RSI has returned to the neutral 50 level, though the gap with the 14-period SMA has widened. Darkfost opined that this suggests a corrective B-wave rebound may occur before the final C-wave arrives. He added that there are currently no concerning signals, and Bitcoin’s medium-term trend remains positive.

A prominent trader says Bitcoin is testing the support of the 50-day moving average, and is bullish on it rising further from current levels.

Well-known trader Doctor Profit posted that Bitcoin previously bottomed out, rallied sharply after reclaiming its 50-day moving average, and had not retested this level since. It has now retested this support, and he believes the support will hold, with Bitcoin continuing to rise from its current level.

Analysis: Bitcoin faces higher risk of long liquidations on the downside than short squeezes on the upside.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin is currently near a support level, but a large cluster of long liquidations lies below. A further price drop could trigger a cascade of liquidations, with another liquidation cluster around the $75,000 mark. In contrast, short liquidation positions have continued to accumulate above the $85,000 level over the past week. For now, the long liquidation zone below is more vulnerable than the short liquidation zone above.

Bitcoin falls below $81,000, driven by higher-than-expected inflation and intensified selling of AI stocks.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly rallied to nearly $84,000 on Wednesday before a sustained pullback, falling to around $80,400 by early Thursday, marking a 2.6% 24-hour drop and approaching last Thursday’s low of roughly $80,430. The U.S. September core inflation rate rose to 2.6%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%, further stoking Federal Reserve interest rate hike bets. Meanwhile, selling pressure on AI stocks intensified, with Nasdaq 100 Index futures down 1.2%. Data disclosed by Anthropic to potential investors shows its third-quarter revenue grew by $16.8 billion, a figure reflecting a slowdown in growth momentum. The crypto market weakened in tandem: ZEC dropped 11% to around $1,100, while ETH fell 5% to roughly $2,370. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $261 million on Wednesday. Analysts noted that if Bitcoin closes below $80,400 on a daily basis, it will lose the key level that buyers have defended twice since last Thursday.

Bitfinex: Long-term Bitcoin holders have an unrealized profit of approximately 64%, while recent buyers only log a 9% unrealized gain.

Bitfinex stated in a report that the average holding cost of long-term Bitcoin holders is approximately $49,300, with an unrealized profit of around 64% at present. The average cost for recent BTC buyers is roughly $74,400, translating to just a 9% unrealized gain. Bitfinex pointed out that if Bitcoin’s price drops further, recent buyers may be the first to face heavier selling pressure, while long-term holders have a larger unrealized profit buffer.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through $81,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to break through the $81,000 level, with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 2.89%.

Yesterday, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $129.5 million.

According to data from Farside, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $261 million yesterday. Of this total, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net outflow of $110 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC posted a net outflow of $152.7 million. Additionally, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $129.5 million yesterday, with BlackRock’s ETHA registering a net outflow of $110 million.

Arthur Hayes: If an AI trading crash ultimately triggers a trillion-dollar market rescue, it will be favorable for Bitcoin's bull run.

Arthur Hayes posted on social media that if AI trading eventually crashes, it could trigger a trillion-dollar-scale market bailout, a scenario that would drive up Bitcoin and Ethereum’s prices. “Will AI eventually crash? I don’t know, and I won’t bet on either side. Instead, just trade for that upcoming trillion-dollar-scale market bailout: go long on BTC and ETH.”

Bitcoin falls below $81,000, dropping over 3% in 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $81,000, currently trading at $80,742, with a 3.04% drop in the past 24 hours.

Speculative trading cools, Bitcoin nears its near-term low, Nasdaq closes down nearly 2%

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen 2.02% in 24 hours, currently trading at $81,480 and approaching the lower edge of its recent trading range. While cryptocurrency analysts have largely turned bullish, Bitcoin remains weighed down by a broader pullback in risk assets. As the largest crypto asset by market capitalization, Bitcoin is trading near $81,700. Due to higher-than-expected inflation data and renewed selling pressure on chipmaker stocks, market interest in speculative trading has cooled, dragging down the crypto market. The Nasdaq 100 index dropped 2%, and the U.S. dollar rose to its highest level since May 2025. After September’s consumer price growth hit a new high since April, traders have further increased bets on the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. stocks closed on Wednesday: the Dow Jones fell 0.09%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.88%. Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 4%, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) slid 6%, NVIDIA (NVDA.O) dropped 3%, Coreweave (CRWV.O) plunged over 15%, and Dell (DELL.N) fell more than 11%.