Fidelity: Correlation Between Bitcoin's Market Cap and US Treasury Yields Hits All-Time High

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an analysis noting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since Bitcoin’s inception, while the size of U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with interest payments exceeding Medicare to become the second-largest expenditure item in the federal budget. Fidelity pointed out that Bitcoin’s correlation with the 10-year U.S. real interest rate was long low, but has gradually turned positive in recent years, rising above 0.6 in 2026, a record high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has rallied nearly 30%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has jumped more than 10% in the same period. Fidelity argues that amid rising government debt, higher financing costs and growing concerns over fiscal intervention, Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins may boost its appeal as a potential hedge against currency devaluation and a portfolio diversification tool. If current debt and interest rate trends persist, government interest payments could even become the largest expenditure item in the federal budget in the future. U.S. Treasury data shows that the U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal 2026 rose to $1.99 trillion, up from $1.78 trillion in fiscal 2025, the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the Trump administration’s pledge to cut spending, military spending, Social Security expenditures and Treasury interest payments continue to climb, coupled with a decline in corporate tax revenue, further expanding the fiscal deficit.