Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Yesterday, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $23.2 million, while U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $26.1 million.

According to Farside's monitoring, yesterday, the total net inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $23.2 million. Among them, IBIT saw a net inflow of $29.9 million, FBTC a net inflow of $3.6 million, BITB a net outflow of $10.3 million, while all other products recorded zero capital flows. For U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, total net outflows stood at $26.1 million. Specifically, ETHA posted a net outflow of $33 million, FETH a net inflow of $3.6 million, Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) a net inflow of $3.3 million, with all other products registering zero capital movement.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound ahead of the interest rate decision, with the $80,000 lower edge expected to be tested first.

Bitcoin has been stuck in a range of $80,000 to $84,000 over the past two weeks. Huobi HTX’s chief analyst Cloud attributes this to two offsetting forces: ETFs have posted net outflows for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out, and long-term holders are only taking mild profits. In the week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound. The CME currently prices a 16% chance of an October rate hike, while economists widely peg the odds at nearly 50/50. This gap between market pricing and consensus will deter capital from betting early. If Bitcoin breaks out of the range prematurely, the likelihood of a downward test is slightly higher: funding rates remain elevated, and option skew continues to lean toward puts, indicating longs have not yet been cleared out and demand for downside protection is rising. However, the $80,000 level has acted as strong support multiple times over the past month, so a downward breakout is more likely to be a false move. Confirmation signals for a breakout fall into two categories: For an upward move, Bitcoin needs to close above $84,200 on a daily basis, ETFs must see net inflows exceeding $500 million over three consecutive days, and funding rates should not exceed 15%. For a downward move, it needs to break below $79,800, ETF outflows exceed $500 million in a single week, and exchange flows turn positive. The real catalyst for Bitcoin’s next direction remains the interest rate decision to be released in the early hours of October 29 (Beijing time) and the nearly 89% pricing of a December rate hike. Note: This article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.

US side says Russia-Ukraine peace talks have made progress, Bitcoin remains volatile, and US major stock indexes are mixed.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday. Prior to this, U.S. and Ukrainian delegations held talks in Oslo, Norway, which the U.S. described as "highly constructive." Ukraine put forward a new peace plan concept, and all parties made progress on approaches to engage with Russia. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump again urged Kyiv to end the war by reaching an agreement, noting that Moscow wants to resolve the conflict as soon as possible. After meeting with Zelensky, U.S. envoy Witkoff will submit the peace plan to Russian President Putin. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. stocks closed on Tuesday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.06%, the S&P 500 fell 0.29%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.02%. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) dropped 2%, General Motors (GM.N) fell 6.8%, Western Digital (WDC.O) gained 3%, and Apple (AAPL.O) declined 1%. According to HTX market data, Bitcoin remains range-bound, currently trading at $82,992, with a 24-hour gain of 1.03%.

Bitcoin yield platform HoneyB’s developer completes $5 million funding round at a $30 million valuation.

Bitcoin yield platform HoneyB’s developer Nectar Group has raised $5 million in a seed funding round led by Portal Ventures, with participation from Peer Venture Partners, Anchorage Digital Ventures, an unnamed family office, and angel investors. Nectar Group co-founder and CEO Josh Gordon disclosed that the company launched the financing round at the end of Q4 2025 and closed it in early Q3 2026. Gordon noted the round used a Simple Agreement for Future Equity (SAFE) structure, accompanied by a 1:1 token subscription warrant, and carried a post-money valuation of $30 million. He also stated that none of the investors secured board seats, board observer status, or advisory roles.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s resistance zone of $87,000–$87,800 remains intact; a breakout of this range may spark sharp volatility.

Glassnode noted in a publication that Bitcoin’s key fourth-quarter price level is currently holding steady. The firm previously pointed out in the "Charting Crypto" report, co-authored with Colin Basco and the Coinbase Institutional team, that BTC faces resistance in the $87,000 to $87,800 range. Since then, Bitcoin’s price has been blocked at this level and has continued to consolidate below it. Glassnode believes that if Bitcoin breaks out of its current consolidation range, significant market volatility may occur, but a major sell-off pressure zone remains around the $90,000 mark.

Unusual activity has been detected in addresses linked to Irish drug traffickers holding 6,000 Bitcoin, with 500 BTC transferred to Coinbase Prime.

Per Lookonchain's monitoring, a Bitcoin wallet allegedly belonging to Irish drug trafficker Clifton Collins—dormant for over 10 years—has transferred 500 BTC to Coinbase Prime, valued at approximately $41.52 million. Collins was previously reported to have lost his private keys, leaving him unable to access roughly 6,000 BTC in his possession. It remains unclear what prompted the transfer and whether the private keys have been recovered.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through $83,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded and broken through $83,000.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through the $82,000 mark.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to break through the $82,000 mark, with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 0.29%.

Bitcoin ETFs see $578M inflow while Ethereum ETFs face $101M outflow

Oct 20 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +7,103 $BTC(+$578.22M)?? 7D NetFlow: +4,965 $BTC(+$404.18M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -42,349 $ETH(-$101.34M)?? 7D NetFlow: -143,108 $ETH(-$342.45M)??

Viewpoint: Bitcoin is currently in a phase where both buyers and sellers are hesitant, and market confidence is being rebuilt.

Crypto market analyst Darkfost noted that the Bitcoin market is currently in a phase of low investor confidence and hesitation among both buyers and sellers. The current profit supply ratio has dropped from its earlier brief break above 60% to 53.8%, approaching the 50% break-even line. This metric excludes Bitcoin held for more than 10 years to better reflect the current state of the circulating market. Such a scenario is not uncommon in the late stages of a bear market. After the market goes through sell-offs and capitulation phases, and the profit supply ratio falls below 40%, it typically takes time for the metric to climb back above 50%. The recovery of investor confidence and the formation of new demand will take time; the market still needs to wait for investor behavior to gradually stabilize to drive a sustained improvement in profit conditions.

Wintermute: Bitcoin faces a test at the $82,500 level, with AI risks and Federal Reserve policy potentially triggering volatility.

Crypto market maker Wintermute updated its market report today, noting that multiple upcoming events—including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, midterm elections, and third-quarter earnings reports—could soon break Bitcoin’s current narrow trading range. A breakout above $87,000 would confirm an upward move, while a valid drop below $82,500 could push prices further down to around $70,000. On the macro front, U.S. headline CPI rose to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, with core CPI increasing 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding the market’s 0.2% expectation and stoking concerns about energy price pass-through to core inflation. Wintermute added that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury prices largely reflects capital exiting crowded AI growth stock trades, rather than improved inflation expectations. The market currently expects the Fed to hold rates steady at its October 28 meeting, but a hawkish signal could prematurely reinforce bets on a December rate hike, pushing up Treasury yields and pressuring risk assets. Within the crypto market, funds are flowing into major coins. The report shows Bitcoin’s weekly decline stands at 1.99%, the Nasdaq index is down 5.52%, and altcoins overall have fallen 5.69%. Capital has continued to flow into BTC and ETH while exiting most altcoins, with high-beta and small-cap tokens facing more significant pressure. Wintermute believes major coins currently offer a more attractive risk-reward ratio, and a broad altcoin rally may need to wait for Bitcoin to strengthen further. The firm also pointed out that current implied volatility is low, and with the Fed decision and midterm elections approaching, the market may be underestimating subsequent volatility risks. The October 28 Fed meeting will be a key near-term catalyst, while earnings from AI-related companies will also influence market sentiment around computing power investment, financing costs, and business models.

Swiss FINMA approves the country's first spot Bitcoin ETF for retail investors.

The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) has approved Switzerland’s first spot Bitcoin ETF for retail investors. Unlike Switzerland’s existing Bitcoin-based exchange-traded products (ETPs), the new product adopts a regulated investment fund structure instead of a debt security format. The ETF will be subject to clearer requirements for custody, operational risk management, and information disclosure, marking a further advancement in the regulatory framework for Bitcoin investment products in Switzerland.

Weakness in U.S. stocks could weigh on Bitcoin demand, with daily net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reaching a one-month high.

Bitcoin fell around 1% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum dropped 1.4%. Weak Asian equities and rising oil prices intensified market pressure. QCP Capital analysts warned that if U.S. stocks continue to fall and trigger broader deleveraging, risks could spill over to the crypto market, and Bitcoin’s $80,000 support level may face a test. In terms of fund flows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of around $526.6 million on Monday, marking the highest level in a month. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a single-day net inflow of roughly $665.2 million, its largest daily inflow since October 2025; products from Fidelity and Grayscale, by contrast, posted outflows. In contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $103.3 million, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of outflows, indicating recent buying demand is concentrated in Bitcoin rather than the broader crypto market. The macro environment remains under pressure: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at around 5.13%, Brent crude oil prices are near $110 per barrel, and rising energy prices have stoked inflation concerns. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady next week, but markets have priced in a 25 basis point rate hike next month. QCP noted that if U.S. Treasuries continue to rally, real yields fall, and the U.S. dollar weakens, it could provide support for risk assets; conversely, if U.S. stock sell-offs persist, Bitcoin’s $80,000 level will be a key watch point.

Analysts: Bitcoin’s on-chain activity shows notable divergence, with whales shifting to hoarding coins while spot demand remains weak.

On-chain data analyst XWIN, citing CryptoQuant data, noted that Bitcoin’s current on-chain metrics show a significant divergence between whale behavior and the spot market. While large holders have begun re-accumulating, spot market demand remains weak, with the market transitioning from "seller exhaustion" toward a potential bottoming phase. XWIN added that on-chain data points to positive accumulation signals: large holders holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin have sharply reversed their 60-day net accumulation from a negative 62,600 BTC to a positive 5,230 BTC, indicating major whales are shifting back from a distribution mode to accumulation. Meanwhile, Binance’s USDT reserves have surged from roughly $790 million to $1.76 billion, signaling growing potential buying power in the market. However, U.S. spot buying has not kept pace. The Coinbase Premium Index is currently around -0.1416%, while weekly exchange flows have shifted to a net inflow of 8,428 BTC. Additionally, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) hovers near 0.9982, indicating short-term holders are still selling at a small loss around the break-even point. The analyst believes that while the underlying market structure is improving, stronger spot demand is urgently needed to fuel a sustainable rally. He advised investors to closely monitor three key signals moving forward: the trajectory of the Coinbase Premium Index, changes in exchange net flows, and whether the STH-SOPR can successfully rise above the 1 threshold.

Bitcoin's volatility has contracted to an extreme level unseen in nearly two and a half years, and the cryptocurrency is poised for sharp price swings.

According to Barchart, Bitcoin's daily Bollinger Bands have formed one of the narrowest widths in the past two and a half years. This indicates Bitcoin is in a "consolidation tightening" phase, possibly preparing for a major price move. BlockBeats Note: Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical analysis indicator consisting of three lines: the middle band, typically a 20-day simple moving average (SMA); the upper band (middle band + 2 times standard deviation); the lower band (middle band - 2 times standard deviation). Historical experience shows that after Bollinger Bands tighten significantly, a directional breakout (either upward or downward) often follows. It is common for volatility to expand suddenly from an extremely low state.

JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin will be the highest-return asset over the next decade, outperforming U.S. stocks and gold.

JPMorgan Asset Management released its "2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report on October 19, including Bitcoin in its long-term return forecast for the first time. The report projects Bitcoin’s compound annual return over the next 10 to 15 years will reach 10%, outperforming 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 5.5% for gold, and 8.2% for U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs). It also estimates Bitcoin’s arithmetic average annual return at 20.9% and annualized volatility at 55%. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, noted that JPMorgan has ranked Bitcoin as the top-performing asset expected over the next decade, a move that signals a shift in traditional financial institutions’ attitude toward crypto assets.

Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $526.7 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $103.3 million.

According to monitoring by Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $526.7 million yesterday: IBIT recorded a net inflow of $665.2 million, while FBTC saw a net outflow of $83.6 million. For Ethereum ETFs, net outflows totaled $103.3 million, with ETHA logging a net outflow of $95.4 million.

Analyst: Bitcoin’s rally may revive buying demand from crypto treasury firms, but an indiscriminate funding boom is unlikely to return.

Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen stated that corporate Bitcoin purchases generally slowed in the third quarter. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings rose by a net 1,666 coins, down from 83,901 in the second quarter; other public companies added a net 5,617 BTC, also lower than the prior quarter’s 45,725. He expects corporate Bitcoin buying could accelerate again as early as this year. Bitfinex Derivatives Head Jag Kooner argued that if Bitcoin’s rally allows treasury-focused companies to regain valuation premiums relative to their Bitcoin holdings, firms can continue purchasing Bitcoin by issuing new shares without diluting existing shareholders’ per-share Bitcoin exposure. However, investors now prioritize financing costs, balance sheet discipline, and Bitcoin per share, so capital may flow to more mature firms with stronger scale, liquidity, and operating track records—last year’s blanket financing environment is unlikely to return. Rasmussen also pointed out that 12 companies that entered the market during the 2025 treasury Bitcoin boom have liquidated their holdings, primarily to repay debt or return cash to shareholders. Still, corporate buying is not the only demand source: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $6.4 billion in the third quarter. Kooner warned that some ETF activity involves basis trades that could be closed out quickly; data shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of roughly $229 million last week, marking the second straight week of net outflows.

Prominent Trader: Bitcoin’s Correction Is Complete, Strong Support at $81,000–$82,000, Target Still $94,000

Prominent crypto trader Doctor Profit posted that he has opened a 4x leveraged long position on Bitcoin at $81,000. He believes this round of correction is complete, with the $81,000–$82,000 zone serving as strong support and marking a local bottom, while his next target remains $94,000. He noted that Bitcoin previously rallied near $87,000, but the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) posted a lower high, forming a bearish divergence. After this correction, the RSI has returned to the zone where the prior rebound occurred, and price has once again touched the orange line on its chart, mirroring the pattern seen during the last local bottom formation. Regarding Bitcoin’s subsequent price path, he forecasts that it first needs to reclaim $82,000 for confirmation, then consolidate sideways between $82,000 and $88,000 before breaking out of the range to rally toward $94,000. He expects the $86,000–$88,000 zone will act as accumulation rather than distribution this time, with buying pressure absorbing sell-offs to turn resistance into support.

BlackRock submits an application for its third Bitcoin ETF, designed to offer downside protection and upside exposure to IBIT.

BlackRock has filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protect ETF, which is designed to offer a degree of downside protection while capturing upside returns from its flagship Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) or similar Bitcoin exposure, with a cap on those upside gains. BlackRock launched IBIT in January 2024, and it currently holds over $65 billion in assets under management (AUM), making it the largest product of its kind. In June this year, the firm also launched the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, which aims to deliver Bitcoin exposure while generating monthly options premium income. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said this is BlackRock’s third Bitcoin ETF application. He noted that while other institutions have launched ETFs covering assets such as XRP, SOL, and DOGE, BlackRock’s current product lineup only includes Bitcoin and Ethereum-related offerings.

Bitcoin ETFs see $94.94M outflow, Ethereum ETFs down $87.51M in 24 hours

Oct 19 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -1,156 $BTC(-$94.94M)?? 7D NetFlow: -2,926 $BTC(-$240.41M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -36,378 $ETH(-$87.51M)?? 7D NetFlow: -130,684 $ETH(-$314.39M)??

AnchorWatch Secures Nevada Charter License to Offer Bitcoin Custody Services

According to a report by The Block, AnchorWatch Trust Company officially launched operations this Monday, becoming a qualified Bitcoin custodian with a Nevada charter. The firm disclosed to media that the Nevada Financial Institutions Division has formally authorized it to offer custodial services. Its target clientele primarily includes trustees, listed companies, trust entities, and high-net-worth individuals requiring qualified Bitcoin custodial services. On the fee structure front, AnchorWatch employs a fixed dollar rate based on vault size, rather than a percentage of assets under custody, with a monthly custodial fee capped at $10,000. This means once a client’s monthly fee reaches this cap, additional Bitcoin purchases or gains from existing holdings will not incur extra custodial costs. Regarding key management and custody architecture, AnchorWatch provides two distinct options for institutional clients. In its flagship model, AnchorWatch Trust Company holds the core keys necessary for qualified custody, while permitting clients, trustees, or executives to hold an additional key. Under the alternative distributed custody model, key control is decentralized across multiple parties, managed jointly by AnchorWatch, U.S.-based BitGo, and Isle of Man-based CoinCorner, further mitigating the risk of single points of failure.

Bitcoin treasury stock Strive (ASST) rose 8.41% during intraday trading.

According to data from BIT (bit.com), Bitcoin treasury stock Strive (ASST) rose 8.41% intraday, currently trading at $26. Official data shows Strive has added a total of 10,463 BTC over the past four weeks, with details as follows: - September 21–25: Bought 1,107 BTC at an average price of ~$85,396 - September 28–October 2: Bought 2,000 BTC at an average price of ~$84,422 - October 5–9: Bought 3,311 BTC at an average price of ~$84,500 - October 12–16: Bought 4,045 BTC at an average price of ~$82,803 During the same period, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker MSTR) – the largest crypto and Bitcoin treasury company – only accumulated around 2,516 BTC. Notably, Strive’s buying pace has surged from over 1,000 BTC in late September to more than 4,000 BTC in mid-October, with its purchases in the last two weeks significantly exceeding some analysts’ quarterly expectations. As of October 16, its total holdings stand at 36,818 BTC.

Bitcoin infrastructure protocol Echo Protocol announces it will gradually shut down.

Bitcoin infrastructure protocol Echo Protocol announced on social media that it will gradually wind down its operations due to business adjustments. The project team thanked the community, partners, and users for their long-term trust and support in the announcement, and pledged to complete subsequent liquidation work transparently and responsibly. Currently, all core businesses of Echo Protocol have stopped accepting incremental funds. Its lending protocol has halted new deposits, new borrowings, and interest accruals, while strategy and LSD businesses have also suspended new deposits and new staking. The team has opened repayment, withdrawal, and necessary asset liquidation channels, urging users to act promptly: Borrowers must repay debts, release collateral, and withdraw assets as soon as possible; strategy and LSD users should initiate exits and claims early; users holding aBTC can still redeem via the Aptos-to-B2 cross-chain bridge. To ensure orderly liquidation, the announcement specified key deadlines: All borrowers with outstanding debts must repay by November 14, 2026. Unpaid loans after this date will trigger collateral liquidation, with proceeds used to repay lenders. The final deadline for users to complete repayment, withdrawal, and unstaking is 23:59 UTC on November 19, 2026. After this date, Echo Protocol will officially cease operations, with all remaining positions entering the final liquidation and settlement process, and only the Aptos-to-B2 cross-chain bridge redemption service will remain active. Notably, as LSD and Strategy assets depend on the timing of underlying staking/unstaking requests, users' actual claim timelines will be subject to this factor.

Bitcoin falls below $82,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $82,000, currently trading at $81,981.

MicroStrategy purchased 267 bitcoins over the past week.

According to official announcements, Strategy purchased 267 bitcoins over the past week and repurchased STRC stock for $193 million. As of October 18, 2026, the company holds a total of 848,517 BTC and $5.3 billion in U.S. dollar assets.

Strive increased its Bitcoin holdings by 4,045 BTC last week, bringing its total position to 36,818 BTC.

According to relevant filings, Strive purchased 4,045 Bitcoin at an average price of approximately $82,803 between October 12 and 16, 2026. The total includes the 2,822 Bitcoin bought between October 12 and 13 – a figure announced on October 14 – plus 1,223 Bitcoin acquired from October 14 to 16 at an average price of roughly $81,734. As of October 16, Strive holds a total of 36,818 Bitcoin, along with 505,000 shares of Strategy STRC preferred stock (valued at approximately $49.35 million in fair value) and around $317.5 million in cash.

MicroStrategy purchased 267 Bitcoin over the past week.

According to relevant filings, Strategy purchased 267 bitcoins over the past week and repurchased its STRC stock for $193 million.

QCP: Bitcoin demonstrates resilience against price declines; a drop below the $80,000 to $88,000 range could trigger a sharp repricing.

QCP Capital’s daily market report today noted that Bitcoin traded in a range of $80,000 to $83,000 last week, with strong support near the $80,000 level and showing resilience amid ongoing pressure on tech stocks. AI financing risks continue to simmer: CoreWeave’s 5-year credit default swap (CDS) spread widened to over 1,100 basis points, reflecting market concerns over debt-driven AI investments. On the macro front, higher-than-expected U.S. CPI once pushed 2-year U.S. Treasury yields to 4.9% and 10-year yields above 5.3%; yields later pulled back on defensive demand. Fed Chair nominee Warsh’s comments on Friday also lowered market expectations for an October rate hike to 15%, down from nearly 30% earlier this week. The pullback in U.S. Treasury yields has supported Bitcoin’s rebound. QCP pointed out that funds are shifting from the semiconductor sector to healthcare and bank stocks, with markets likely reducing exposure to crowded AI trades, though there is no clear evidence of direct inflows into crypto markets so far. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s implied volatility remains below its one-year average, and market makers’ positive Gamma positions may temporarily cap price swings. However, this stability could weaken as options expire and positions roll over; if Bitcoin breaks sustainably above the $80,000 to $88,000 range, the market may face more sharp price revaluations. This week’s tech giant earnings reports will be a key watchpoint.

Analysis: Bitcoin's recovery faces a test as trading platform reserves rebound and spot demand turns negative again.

CryptoQuant certified analyst XWIN Japan stated in a post that the latest on-chain data shows Bitcoin still exhibits signs of bottoming, though its recovery is uneven. Exchange reserves have rebounded, spot demand has turned negative again, and holding behaviors of whales of different sizes have diverged. 1. Exchange reserves rebound: In early October, Bitcoin exchange reserves stood at around 2.67 million coins, and have now risen to approximately 2.68 million. While still lower than the level in January, the rise in reserves does not necessarily mean increased selling pressure; it may also be related to changes in custody methods. 2. Spot demand recovery blocked: The 30-day spot demand indicator once approached zero, then turned negative again. Perpetual contract demand remains positive, providing support for total demand. This indicator differs from the previously discussed apparent demand indicator, and their values cannot be directly compared. 3. Divergence in holdings among different-sized whales: The group holding 100 to 1,000 BTC has remained net buyers over the past 60 days, but the buying intensity is lower than the peak in late September. The net decline in holdings of the group holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC has narrowed to nearly zero, while the group holding more than 10,000 BTC is still in a net selling state, indicating that buying has not yet spread widely. The above rolling data includes activities before October and may also be affected by address transfers between groups of different holding sizes. XWIN Japan believes that low exchange reserves and continued net buying by some whales still support Bitcoin's bottoming. However, for a sustainable recovery, spot demand needs to stay positive, buying needs to absorb BTC flowing back into exchanges, and buying behavior needs to expand to more holding groups. Additionally, market expectations from the U.S. midterm elections and monetary policy also need to translate into actual buying.

Bitcoin rebounds to $83,000, up 1.09% in the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has returned to the $83,000 mark, currently trading at $83,096, with a 1.09% gain over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin briefly broke through $83,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly broke through $83,000, with a 24-hour gain of 1.54%.

Bitcoin mining firm MARA's associated address transferred 1,000 BTC to a centralized exchange (CEX), sparking speculation of a sell-off.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, Bitcoin mining firm MARA Holdings is suspected of offloading BTC. Over the past five days, wallets associated with MARA have transferred a total of 1,000 BTC to Binance and Gate, worth approximately $82.8 million.

13-year dormant Bitcoin whale transfers BTC, with over $30 million in unrealized profit.

According to Arkham monitoring, a Bitcoin whale received BTC worth $54,000 in 2013, when Bitcoin’s price was only around $130. The whale has held these BTC for 13 years, and their current value exceeds $30 million. Seven hours ago, the whale transferred this batch of BTC to a new wallet for the first time.

Michael Saylor Proposes "Perfect" Digital Currency Vision: A Bitcoin-backed stablecoin pegged to the U.S. Dollar that can deliver 6% to 8% returns.

Strategy CEO Michael Saylor outlined his vision for a "perfect" digital currency at ParaFi Investor Day: a dollar-pegged stablecoin backed by Bitcoin that would generate roughly 6% to 8% returns. He noted this would be the next step for digital capital and digital credit products.

A crypto whale closed a $110 million long Bitcoin (BTC) position, incurring a $3.26 million loss and shifting to open a long position in US stocks.

According to EmberCN’s monitoring, a crypto whale’s previously established $110 million BTC long position failed to trigger its $80,500 market stop-loss. The whale closed the BTC long position at 5 AM today, then turned to opening long positions in US equities. At 4 AM today, BTC hit a low of $80,684—just $184 away from its $80,500 stop-loss level—but did not decline further to trigger the sell order. The whale closed the long position at $80,949 at 5 AM, resulting in a total loss of $3.26 million, before opening $45.8 million worth of US stock long contracts, including TSLA, DRAM, and SOXL.

The crypto market remains in sideways consolidation, with Bitcoin seeing a slight rebound to break above $82,000, while major tokens have all risen by less than 1%.

According to HTX market data, the crypto market remains range-bound and volatile. Bitcoin broke above $82,000 this morning, while Ethereum surpassed $2,400, both with gains of less than 1%. ZEC is currently priced at $1,131, SOL at $104, BNB at $723, and HYPE at $78.8, all with minor increases. The total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.785 trillion, down 1.4% over the past 24 hours. Leading altcoin gainers include GTC (up ~13%), AMP (~12%), QKC (~12%), OSMO (~11%), SENT (~8%), and CVX (~7%). Leading altcoin losers are AVA (down ~20%), A (~20%), LSK (~14%), DUSK (~11%), GNS (~9%), and EDU (~9%).

Galaxy Research analyzes why Bitcoin weakened in October, pointing to weak corporate treasury buying and ETF outflows as the primary causes.

Galaxy Research Head of Research Alex Thorn points out that Bitcoin’s weakness in October is tied to weak growth in corporate Bitcoin reserves and net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Using the “institutional absorption vs. long-term holder address distribution” metric for analysis, the calculation is: spot ETF net inflows plus net additions to corporate reserves, minus the amount of Bitcoin that has been dormant on-chain for over five years and reactivated. Data shows that as of October 18, the year-to-date net value of this metric stood at roughly negative 127,300 BTC, meaning the distribution of old coins from long-term holding addresses has overall outpaced institutional uptake. The analyst also noted that the year-to-date net inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to positive territory in September and has barely held steady since, currently at around $355 million, with a small net outflow recorded so far in October.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin has completed bottom hunting to liquidate long positions, may shift to a short squeeze next week, and maintains a bullish stance above $79,800.

Renowned trader Killa reviewed Bitcoin’s weekly chart trends, noting that last week, BTC fell from $87,000 to the $80,000 range before bouncing back 50%. After the current weekly chart opened, the token rallied on Monday but faced persistent resistance, eventually retesting the prior week’s low around $80,000. Currently, longs are the main targets of market liquidations, so there’s a high chance the trend will shift to targeting shorts next week. For short-term trades, closely watch for a retest of this week’s low at $79,800; if that occurs, look for long entry opportunities. Killa laid out a clear observation framework: If BTC does not retest the lows, focus on the $83,600 level. If the price fails to break above this level, the market will remain in a range-bound capitulation phase; if it breaks through successfully, the rally will push higher. He expects next week’s weekly chart open will move upward, forcing late shorts who entered short positions against the recent rally to cover their positions. In the worst-case scenario for bulls, BTC could dip to the $76,000–$78,000 range. The analyst also explicitly ruled out the extreme scenario of a retest of $74,000.

Bitcoin Jesus renounced his U.S. citizenship to evade taxes, only to be ordered to pay nearly $50 million in expatriation tax a decade later.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Justice announced a deferred prosecution agreement with Roger Ver, known as "Bitcoin Jesus", under which fraud and tax evasion charges against him will be dropped in exchange for a maximum fine of $49.9 million. As one of the earliest Bitcoin evangelists, Ver purchased large amounts of Bitcoin in 2011 for less than $3 million. In February 2014, to avoid high tax burdens, he obtained citizenship of the Caribbean island nation of St. Kitts and Nevis, and renounced his U.S. citizenship the following month. At that time, he and his companies held at least 131,000 Bitcoin, worth over $70 million at the then-current price. He thought changing his nationality would let him escape the U.S.'s high taxes, but the U.S.'s strict "expatriation tax" foiled his plan. Under U.S. tax law, eligible expatriates must treat their global assets as if sold on the day before expatriation and pay capital gains tax. Ver reported $1.03 million in taxes, but not only failed to disclose his personal Bitcoin holdings, he also severely undervalued his company assets. A decade later, the IRS uncovered his fraudulent tax evasion (fraud and tax evasion are not subject to statute of limitations), ultimately forcing him to pay up to $49.9 million in back taxes, penalties, and interest—48 times the amount he had self-reported paying that year.

Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, possibly signaling an increase in his BTC holdings.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates related to its Bitcoin Tracker, stating, "We found room for more orange." Per established patterns, orange dots mark Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase records, so this move likely signals the company will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes in its Bitcoin position the day after such announcements. On October 12, Strategy revealed it had added 250 BTC the prior week, bringing its dollar reserves down to $5.52 billion (a decrease of $193 million), while its total Bitcoin holdings rose to 848,250 BTC.

Strive's CEO released Bitcoin Tracker information, hinting that the company will announce another increase in its Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin treasury firm Strive CEO Matt Cole shared a Bitcoin holdings chart, captioned "Now stacking sats with double the horsepower", hinting that he will disclose data on the firm’s Bitcoin (BTC) additions next week. Strive recently added 2,822 BTC between October 12 and 13 at an average price of approximately $83,266 per coin. The acquisition cost $235 million, bringing the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 35,600 coins.

Viewpoint: This round of growth in small and mid-cap altcoins has far outpaced Bitcoin, and their high sensitivity means the trend is prone to rapid reversals.

Crypto analyst Darkfost stated in a post that since the end of August, mid-cap and small-cap tokens have posted the strongest market capitalization growth. Data shows the gap between the annual average and monthly average market cap of these assets has continued to widen, with the current ratio reaching 41%. By contrast, Bitcoin’s growth trend is positive but limited, standing at only 7%, while large-cap assets have an even lower ratio of 3.5%. The analyst pointed out this is a quite rare phenomenon. Normally, Bitcoin drives market trends, as was clearly seen in the period after the end of the 2023 bear market. However, mid-cap and small-cap tokens are more sensitive to market funds and sentiment, and their trends may reverse rapidly in either direction in the short term. Investors need to be alert to the high volatility risks brought by this structural feature.

Analyst: If Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance level of $82,000, it may accelerate its upward move to test $90,000.

Crypto analyst Micha?l van de Poppe posted that Bitcoin’s price range is gradually narrowing, with volatility declining, signaling a major price swing is likely ahead—but a "false move" could occur first. He noted that this false move could push Bitcoin’s price below $80,000, to the "blue box" zone marked on his chart. This zone has already been tested once before, and he would not be surprised if it is retested, calling it an ideal entry area. On the upside, he stated that if Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance level of $82,000, its rally will accelerate and likely move toward $90,000.

Analyst: Bitcoin’s MVRV percentile drops below 30, still aligning with the characteristics of an accumulation zone.

Crypto analyst Darkfost posted that after Bitcoin hit resistance near $87,000, the MVRV percentile fell back below 30, marking a return to the post-market capitulation transition phase. He argues the current valuation still aligns with the traits of an accumulation zone. Darkfost explains that MVRV is used to compare Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, where the latter is calculated based on the price of each BTC at the time of its most recent on-chain transfer. His approach does not rely solely on the raw MVRV value; instead, he measures the current value’s relative position in its historical evolution to reduce the impact of Bitcoin’s structural shifts and market cycles on indicator interpretation, while analyzing it within the current market environment. He points out that Bitcoin has only been at this valuation level roughly 25% of the time in its history. Though it has now exited the extreme undervaluation zone that historically always coincided with market lows, it still fits the characteristics of a typical historical accumulation zone.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $228.4 million this week, with IBIT posting the largest net outflow.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a combined net outflow of $228.4 million this week. Specifically, IBIT saw a net outflow of $165.4 million, FBTC recorded a net outflow of $60.2 million, BTC had a net outflow of $7.6 million, and BTCO posted a net outflow of $4.1 million. Meanwhile, MSBT and BITB notched net inflows of $6.7 million and $2.2 million respectively.

Bitcoin surpasses $82,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through the $82,000 mark, with a 0.52% gain in the past 24 hours.

Two Bitcoin wallets dormant for over 12 years have transferred approximately 416.69 BTC, with unrealized profits reaching $33.71 million.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, two whale wallets dormant for 12 to 13 years have transferred a combined 416.6941 BTC (valued at approximately $33.82 million) to the same address. Specifically, the wallet dormant for 13 years sent out 167.8402 BTC worth around $13.62 million, while the 12-year-dormant wallet transferred 248.8539 BTC valued at roughly $20.20 million. The original value of these BTC was about $105,400, marking an increase of approximately $33.71 million from their initial worth.

Bloomberg analyst issues alarmist warning: A 20% pullback in U.S. stocks could send Bitcoin tumbling to its $10,000 support level.

Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone wrote in a post yesterday that a 20% pullback in U.S. stocks could push Bitcoin toward the $10,000 support level. "The first cryptocurrency (BTC), launched in 2009, led the rally in risk assets, but Bitcoin’s 2025 peak above $100,000, gold’s rise to over $5,000 in Q1, and most central banks turning cautious amid surging government bond yields may signal the end of this cycle," he noted. In response, crypto analyst Darkfost countered that a 20% U.S. stock pullback has never historically aligned with a roughly 92% drop in Bitcoin from its highs, so he deemed the price target "highly unlikely."

Well-known trader Killa: Bitcoin may bottom out before the midterm elections, and the post-midterm rally requires caution.

Well-known trader Killa recently released a video predicting market trends around the U.S. midterm elections. His analysis summarizes the historical timeline correlation between midterm elections and Bitcoin’s bottoming: in 2014, Bitcoin bottomed roughly 70 days after the midterms; in 2018, 40-44 days post-midterms; in 2022, it bottomed almost during the midterm period itself. He believes Bitcoin could form a weekly-level bottom ahead of the November 3 U.S. midterms. Killa outlined two main scenarios: 1. Early bottom scenario: BTC forms a low before or around the midterms (possibly testing the current low, or holding above $80k), then rebounds, first testing the $80k zone, and potentially hitting $95k eventually. This would lead to a bullish fourth quarter, contrary to the widespread expectation of "post-election de-risking". 2. Classic de-risking scenario: Bitcoin rallies to a high (possibly hitting $94-$95k), then sees the typical post-election sell-off/de-risking drop observed in history (3 out of the past 4 midterm cycles followed this pattern). Killa advises investors to closely monitor price action ahead of the midterms and adjust positions accordingly: if an early bottom forms, hold bullish positions post-election; if the rally weakens after peaking, consider de-risking. He stresses that patterns are accelerating, so the historical "post-election must fall" experience cannot be simply copied. As a quantitative trader focused on BTC, Killa correctly predicted the peak of the current bull market in May 2025, and has over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, and switched to long positions during the broad market sell-off on June 5.