Perspective: Bitcoin may need to rally above $350,000 before entering a deep bear market, with a projected 70% to 80% price drop.

Sui development team Mysten Labs CEO Evan Cheng announced in a post that the company will officially establish an AI business division, focusing on AI agent trust products and native AI infrastructure development. Meanwhile, Mysten Labs President Kevin Boon will take over as CEO, with Evan Cheng shifting to Chief Technology Officer (CTO) to lead the AI business division. Evan Cheng noted that as AI agents start autonomously executing tasks such as transactions, payments, negotiations, and code development, ensuring agents act within authorized bounds, avoiding unintended harm, and resolving liability attribution issues between different parties has become a key challenge for the industry’s development. Mysten Labs plans to build relevant products based on Sui and Walrus, aiming to help individuals and enterprises constrain agent behavior and enable agents to perform tasks safely without real-time human intervention. Additionally, the firm recently announced a partnership with Google Cloud to develop Verifiable Agent Arbiters (VAA), providing an evidence layer for enterprise AI agents and helping resolve disputes in cross-organizational collaboration via tamper-proof records. Evan Cheng holds that AI agent-driven commercial activities have enormous potential, but trust mechanisms and incentive coordination issues remain the main obstacles to their large-scale development.

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an analysis noting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since Bitcoin’s inception, while the size of U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with interest payments exceeding Medicare to become the second-largest expenditure item in the federal budget. Fidelity pointed out that Bitcoin’s correlation with the 10-year U.S. real interest rate was long low, but has gradually turned positive in recent years, rising above 0.6 in 2026, a record high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has rallied nearly 30%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has jumped more than 10% in the same period. Fidelity argues that amid rising government debt, higher financing costs and growing concerns over fiscal intervention, Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins may boost its appeal as a potential hedge against currency devaluation and a portfolio diversification tool. If current debt and interest rate trends persist, government interest payments could even become the largest expenditure item in the federal budget in the future. U.S. Treasury data shows that the U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal 2026 rose to $1.99 trillion, up from $1.78 trillion in fiscal 2025, the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the Trump administration’s pledge to cut spending, military spending, Social Security expenditures and Treasury interest payments continue to climb, coupled with a decline in corporate tax revenue, further expanding the fiscal deficit.

Cobo plans to unveil its brand upgrade and showcase the latest capabilities of its institutional wallet products—including an upgraded offering for enterprise and agent payment scenarios—during the Singapore FinTech Festival (SFF) in mid-November. Founded in 2017, Cobo first gained recognition for its personal wallet products before shifting its business focus to institutions and enterprises. The company currently serves over 680 institutional clients spanning nearly 50 countries and regions, per its disclosures. The upcoming SFF showcase will highlight its latest progress in institutional wallets, payment solutions, and agent payments. Separately, Cobo Wallet announced yesterday that its app services will officially shut down on December 1, 2026. Users are required to complete the withdrawal of all assets and update their Cobo Wallet receiving addresses set on other platforms by 23:59 on November 30. Cobo clarified that the app stopped new user registrations as early as 2021, yet continued serving existing users with ample time to withdraw funds. The app shutdown marks the official end of Cobo’s personal wallet business. The company noted that this brand and product upgrade is part of its ongoing push to expand its institutional business. Leveraging its existing wallet and custody services, Cobo will further develop payment scenarios to support the digital asset management and operational needs of institutions, enterprises, and agents.

Jefferies market intelligence analyst Dan Kirsche said that despite continued pressure on tech stocks, market gains are spreading to more sectors. Coupled with reduced investor positioning pressure and falling U.S. Treasury yields, current market volatility may offer investors a rare window to build positions, and he expects U.S. stocks to perform strongly in November and December. Kirsche pointed out that the Nasdaq index has fallen about 5% from its peak, while the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has rebounded roughly 7% to 8% from its low, showing that tech stock weakness has not prevented other sectors from strengthening. However, he expects the S&P 500 index may still retest its 100-day moving average around 7,600 points. The semiconductor sector’s correction risk has not yet lifted; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight consecutive days, on track to log its longest losing streak since May 2006. BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky believes the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index may see a short-term rebound after its consecutive declines, but there is still further downside potential in the medium term. Kirsche, meanwhile, sees 11,000 as the next key support level for the index, and forecasts that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield could fall from around 5.13% to 5.00%, before dipping further to 4.8%.

TD Cowen analysts raised the target price of Bitcoin reserve company Strive (ticker: ASST) from $44 to $56, a roughly 27% increase. The analysts noted that Strive’s Bitcoin purchases over the past two weeks have already surpassed its full fourth-quarter forecast. As of now, Strive holds 35,595 BTC, valued at around $2.9 billion at current prices—an increase of nearly 7,600 BTC from the 28,000 it held at the end of September, exceeding TD Cowen’s prior Q4 target of 4,750 BTC added. Its Bitcoin holdings now rank fourth among public listed firms, slightly higher than MARA’s reported position. On the financing front, Strive expanded its SATS preferred stock offering to 7 million shares, priced at $90 per share, with a planned raise of $630 million, expected to close on October 20. TD Cowen believes this offering will fund further Bitcoin purchases while avoiding common stock issuance. The analysts also pointed out that prior warrant exercises had increased diluted share counts, pressuring Bitcoin yields, but with the $27 strike price warrants now exhausted, the related pressure is expected to ease.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire told Reuters that the company plans to enter around 40 emerging and developing markets, focusing on Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. He noted that as demand for stablecoins grows among individuals and businesses, blockchain is shifting from early adoption to mass mainstream adoption. Currently, Circle-issued USDC holds roughly 25% of the stablecoin market, trailing Tether’s USDT which accounts for around 60%. USDC’s circulation rose 19% year-over-year in the second quarter, reaching $73.3 billion. Circle is fueling its business expansion via the $400 million acquisition of payments firm Tazapay and a $100 million strategic investment from Binance. On the regulatory front, Circle obtained a federal banking license this July, while the U.S. GENIUS Act is expected to take effect next January. Allaire stated that the legislation will advance the development of legitimate digital dollars, marking a key turning point for the stablecoin industry. He also added that small, automated payments between AI agents are driving USDC usage, though AI is also exacerbating security risks facing financial infrastructure.