Analysis: Binance Bitcoin order absorption ratio drops to one-year low, extreme pessimism could signal a short-term reversal

Dongcha Beating AI Flash News, November 12: Super Fusion passed the review of the Listing Committee of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext board, planning to raise 8 billion yuan, setting a new high in the proposed fundraising scale for ChiNext companies this year. Super Fusion's predecessor was Huawei's x86 server business, spun off from Huawei in 2021, and is currently controlled by Henan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. According to IDC data, in 2025, Super Fusion ranked second in China's server market by shipment volume, with a 14.2% market share. The AI boom has boosted its performance: in 2025, the company's revenue hit 58.246 billion yuan; in the first half of 2026, revenue stood at 37.286 billion yuan, of which AI servers contributed around 19.852 billion yuan, accounting for 53.29% of main business revenue. In H1 2026, Super Fusion's net profit reached 2.108 billion yuan, more than double the full-year figure of last year. However, over the same period, net cash flow from operating activities recorded a net outflow of 15.685 billion yuan, and short-term borrowings surged from 1.563 billion yuan at the end of last year to 18.026 billion yuan. The company explained that surging demand for AI servers required advance procurement of large quantities of chips and components, but suppliers demanded fast payments while customer receivables were relatively slow, tying up large amounts of funds in inventory and accounts receivable. As of the end of June, the company's inventory balance reached 35.662 billion yuan. During the review, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange specifically questioned whether the company's performance growth is sustainable, as well as risks related to cash flow, customer concentration, and supplier concentration. The IPO has only passed the Listing Committee review so far, with registration and issuance still pending.

According to Bitget's market data, Hong Kong stocks closed, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.55%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 3.02%, Zhipu falling around 10%, and MINIMAX dropping approximately 8%.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote that Bitcoin once fell to around $68,000 and has stayed below the short-term holder realized price of $75,429 for five consecutive days. The price-to-cost ratio is approximately 0.90, indicating that short-term holders as a whole face an unrealized loss of around 10%, and the gap between the spot price and the average cost of recent buyers has further widened. Over the same period, the MVRV Z-Score dropped 0.13 week-over-week to 0.54. The indicator remains positive, but the market’s overall unrealized profit buffer is narrowing. If it falls below zero, it means the price has dropped below the on-chain average cost. The analyst noted that when this indicator turned negative in late 2022, it was accompanied by the final capitulation sell-off of the bear market. The last time the indicator approached this reading was on August 19, when Bitcoin traded at around $69,335, and it rose by about 14% a week later. Over the past year, the indicator has been at or below this level on 38% of trading days. Bitcoin is still in a correction; if it can sustainably rise back above the short-term holder realized price, it will reinforce the view that the market is building support. If the MVRV Z-Score breaks below zero, it signals deeper pressure.

Beating AI News Flash: New developments have emerged in the data breach incident involving AI inference and model training platform Fireworks. Notion confirmed that hackers obtained real chat records of some Notion AI users, including user queries and AI-generated responses. Affected workspaces account for less than 1% of the total. These chat logs come from Notion’s Insights feature. Notion sends user-AI conversations to Fireworks for analysis to help enterprise administrators understand how employees use AI. Notion stated that Fireworks had committed in its contract not to retain such data. However, investigations found that Fireworks actually stored parts of the chat content, which were ultimately accessed by hackers. On November 2, Fireworks initially notified Notion that only fictional test data was affected. Notion immediately cut ties with Fireworks on November 3. It was not until November 8 that Fireworks further confirmed real customer data had also been accessed. Notion said the vast majority of leaked chat logs do not include user names, company or workspace information, but the conversations themselves may still contain sensitive content such as trade secrets and passwords. The company has notified affected customers, advising them to review their chat records and change any potentially compromised passwords and API keys. Currently, Notion has disabled the Insights feature and no longer provides open-source AI models via Fireworks. The company is verifying whether other AI service providers are actually complying with their commitments not to retain customer data.

US President Donald Trump said in an interview that he would consider launching a short-term military operation against Cuba. When asked by the host if he would approve a one-week operation requiring only a small number of military forces, Trump responded that he would consider the proposal. Trump also noted that he aims to resolve the Cuba issue before leaving office and is closely monitoring the situation on the ground there.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin has accelerated its pullback in recent days, falling 17.5% from its recent peak of $87,400 — a correction relatively common in bull markets. However, pessimism in the derivatives market is intensifying. Binance’s taker buy-sell ratio has dropped to a more than one-year low of 0.85, with sell orders dominating the platform’s trading volume. The monthly average of this metric has also plummeted to 0.97, marking a new low since February this year, when Bitcoin plunged below $60,000 and accelerated its pullback. The analyst noted that this data indicates derivatives traders are in extreme pessimism. However, such extreme bearish sentiment often emerges in the late stage of a pullback; in the short term, this metric typically serves as a bullish contrarian signal. Once market panic is fully priced in, it often signals an impending rebound opportunity.