Data: Bitcoin is nearing a breakdown below the on-chain average cost line, and has remained below the cost basis of short-term holders for five consecutive days.
17 minutes ago
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote that Bitcoin once fell to around $68,000 and has stayed below the short-term holder realized price of $75,429 for five consecutive days. The price-to-cost ratio is approximately 0.90, indicating that short-term holders as a whole face an unrealized loss of around 10%, and the gap between the spot price and the average cost of recent buyers has further widened. Over the same period, the MVRV Z-Score dropped 0.13 week-over-week to 0.54. The indicator remains positive, but the market’s overall unrealized profit buffer is narrowing. If it falls below zero, it means the price has dropped below the on-chain average cost. The analyst noted that when this indicator turned negative in late 2022, it was accompanied by the final capitulation sell-off of the bear market. The last time the indicator approached this reading was on August 19, when Bitcoin traded at around $69,335, and it rose by about 14% a week later. Over the past year, the indicator has been at or below this level on 38% of trading days. Bitcoin is still in a correction; if it can sustainably rise back above the short-term holder realized price, it will reinforce the view that the market is building support. If the MVRV Z-Score breaks below zero, it signals deeper pressure.
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