Predict.fun: 77% Probability of Democrats Sweeping Both Chambers in U.S. Midterm Elections

Intel's stock has suffered a historic plunge, falling 45% in October to mark its worst monthly performance in company history. On the last trading day of October, the stock plummeted 29% in a single session — its largest one-day drop since the 1970s — and fell another 8% on the first trading day of November. The slump was primarily driven by a profit warning. Intel projects its revenue for the current quarter will be $1 billion to $2 billion lower than analysts' estimates, citing weak PC market demand and high costs for memory and other components. The PC business still contributes around half of the company's total revenue. Meanwhile, while Intel's data center business remains growing, insufficient production capacity has forced the firm to shift some capacity at its Oregon factories from the advanced 18A process to the Intel 3 process to boost server CPU supply. This adjustment has sparked external concerns over its advanced process capacity and foundry delivery capabilities. Harvard Business School professor David Yoffie warned that if Intel fails to provide sufficient capacity beyond its own needs, it will struggle to become a trusted foundry supplier. Intel CEO Chen Liwu said the company plans to announce several foundry clients over the next two quarters, with progress in customer expansion being key to its foundry business transformation. D.A. Davidson cut Intel's rating from Buy to Neutral, noting that while the PC sector faces industry-wide pressure, the severity of its business weakness has made current valuations unsustainable. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matt Orton argued that the current period is not a "liquidation moment" for the AI sector, with fundamentals remaining strong, though investors need to re-examine the still-crowded positions in the space.

According to Bitget market data, Asian stock markets are generally lower. Specifically: South Korea’s KOSPI index extended its decline to 4%, standing at 5,624.02 points; Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index fell 3% to 43,570.41 points; Indonesia’s benchmark index widened its intraday drop to 2%; the Nikkei 225 index is down 0.33%; and the Shanghai Composite Index is down 0.71%.

Beating AI News: Israeli AI startup 42AI exits stealth mode, launches "Behavioral World Model" for predicting individual decisions. The company said it has partnered with 10 major brokerages to help them anticipate which assets clients will trade, whether to buy or sell, and transaction size. The model analyzes not only historical transactions but also leverages client onboarding data, fund transfers, customer service call records, even call tone and contact frequency. It deduces clients' risk preferences and behavioral tendencies from this data, then combines market changes to predict their next potential actions. 42AI noted that 98% of actual transaction volumes fall within the model's predicted range. For trade direction and volume predictions, the F1 score reaches 0.8 to 0.85 (out of a maximum of 1). Such predictions do not need to cover every transaction; as long as they can anticipate clients' overall buy/sell direction and size in advance, brokerages can arrange liquidity, adjust margins, and pre-hedge. 42AI added that one partner brokerage generated around $30 million in additional value via dynamic hedging. The $62.5 million seed round was invested incrementally over three years by the founders and Infinity Group. Infinity Group was founded by 42AI's CEO's father, who also serves as the company's chairman.

Beating AI Express: In its updated IPO prospectus filed on November 2, Anthropic warned that artificial intelligence (AI) could soon cross a key threshold related to Recursive Self-Improvement (RSI), which would drastically accelerate AI development. The firm noted past cases where significant R&D acceleration was not detected until after it had already occurred. Currently, Claude is already involved in writing code, running experiments, and processing training data to help build stronger next-generation models, which in turn speed up subsequent R&D—creating a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerating progress. Under Anthropic’s safety policy, crossing this key threshold would mean one of two scenarios: 1) AI can complete the work of an entire AI research team at comparable cost; or 2) AI technological progress speeds up by at least double, cutting progress that would take two years to achieve down to one year. As AI becomes more deeply integrated into its own R&D, model capabilities may grow faster than updates to safety evaluations, alignment research, and protective measures. Anthropic has not yet identified any existing model that has reached this level; the latest warning is based primarily on internal estimates and projections for future models. The company is now considering revising its safety policies to ensure critical R&D processes stay under human supervision and control.

Hedge fund Elliott Investment Management, which manages roughly $80 billion in assets, warned in its October investor letter that nearly all major bear market warning signs are currently flashing. The U.S. fiscal deficit, persistent inflation, private credit risks, and the AI investment boom are collectively exacerbating market vulnerability. Elliott argues that current debt-financed investments, the AI infrastructure arms race, and speculative trading are echoing some dangerous characteristics of the era before the 1920s Great Depression. If AI product pricing comes under pressure, or markets lower their expectations for AI infrastructure development, the impact could be historic, even matching the severity of major bear markets of the past several decades. The firm also warned that market sentiment could shift rapidly from FOMO (fear of missing out) to FOGO (fear of getting wiped out), triggering a chain reaction of bullish liquidations. Elliott stated that the top priority now is to preserve capital and prepare for investment opportunities after sharp market corrections. However, the fund’s return for the first three quarters of this year was just under 2%, significantly lagging the S&P 500’s nearly 13% gain over the same period.

Decentralized exchange platform Extended has unveiled the tokenomics model for its native token XTEN, with a fixed total supply cap of 1 billion tokens, all minted at genesis and no inflation mechanism. Of the total, 30% (300 million tokens) is allocated to eligible participants of the Extended Points program, with full unlocking at the Token Generation Event (TGE) and no fees required. XTEN is primarily used for trading fee discounts, staking rewards, and Vault yield boosts. The staking function will launch concurrently with TGE: users who stake at least 500 XTEN will enter corresponding tiers, offering trading fee discounts up to 30% and Vault yield boosts up to 5x, with a maximum individual Vault boost deposit cap of $2 million. In token allocation, the ecosystem fund accounts for 20% (200 million tokens), including 150 million for staking rewards and 50 million for ecosystem development. The team, founders, and investors collectively hold 50% (500 million tokens), which will remain locked for the first 12 months post-TGE before being released in tranches per respective vesting schedules. Additionally, XTEN’s total supply will not increase: trading fee revenue may be used for token burning, and Extended’s affiliated entities may also repurchase XTEN on the open market. The token will also natively support Circle’s Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP), enabling cross-chain transfers between Arc and other blockchains that support the protocol. Extended has not yet announced the TGE date or the airdrop claim window. Notably, users from the European Economic Area (EEA) will not be able to conduct XTEN spot trading during the platform’s initial launch phase, though they will still be eligible to claim, hold, stake, and transfer the token.