Wintermute: Bitcoin is expected to resume its uptrend only after reclaiming the $82,000 to $82,500 level.

Wintermute stated in a report that Bitcoin fell 2.43% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, breaking below the $82,500 support level and retesting the $80,000 threshold. On the macro front, rising energy prices and inflation concerns have replaced AI financing issues as the main market risks. Bitcoin’s recent performance is highly correlated with the Nasdaq and AI-related stocks, while ETF fund flows have also started to show two-way volatility. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and policy stance will be a key catalyst for Bitcoin’s short-term movement. If Bitcoin fails to hold the $80,000 level, the next critical support is $76,000; a valid break below this level could push prices further down to the $70,000 range. In the short term, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $82,000 to $82,500 range to resume its uptrend. If the Fed signals a hawkish tilt, markets may reassess expectations for a December rate hike, driving up yields and intensifying downward pressure on Bitcoin; if the policy statement leaves room for the December decision, it could create conditions for Bitcoin’s rebound. Currently, the market lacks directional confidence and will remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s decision, the U.S. third-quarter GDP data, and September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) figures. If the Fed signals a dovish tilt but subsequent PCE inflation comes in higher than expected, markets may sell off tech stocks due to renewed inflationary pressure, dragging down Bitcoin. The firm emphasized that it is not definitively bearish at present, but remains cautious until Bitcoin reclaims the $82,500 level.