SOXL surges, with on-chain positions decreasing by over 30%, mainly due to short covering.

Glassnode said in a recent post that investors who bought Bitcoin (BTC) recently have moved out of the strong selling zone. In late September, nearly all positions held by short-term BTC holders were in profit, a figure that has since dropped to around 70%. For investors expecting BTC’s uptrend to continue, current entry conditions have improved significantly compared to a month ago. The decline in the profit ratio of short-term holders indicates that selling pressure from take-profit orders has eased, though this does not guarantee BTC will rise going forward.

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi stated that the Federal Reserve will not and should not raise interest rates again at its meeting this week. The U.S. economy is facing growing risks, with the Fed's own policy missteps being one of them. This is the clear message conveyed by Moody's "Risk Matrix". The matrix assesses risks by evaluating two key metrics: the likelihood of each risk materializing over the next 12 to 18 months, and the potential economic damage it could cause if it occurs. A large number of red alerts have been triggered in the matrix, signaling that risks are becoming more probable or more severe. (Jinshi)

Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has published an article introducing a BTC Monte Carlo simulation model inspired by Sminston With, which generates price paths based on Bitcoin’s historical market performance via a random number generator to simulate potential future trends. Woo noted the model made three key adjustments: first, it incorporates BTC’s cyclical market structure; second, it reconstructs Bitcoin’s true probability distribution from historical data, rather than fitting it to a preset ideal distribution; third, it uses data from the 2018 market bottom through the 2022 market bottom as input, deliberately excluding earlier BTC market data to better reflect the modern market environment shaped by derivatives, ETFs and rapid liquidation mechanisms. Additionally, the model retains a power-law scaling mechanism to capture the phenomenon of diminishing returns for BTC across each cycle. Woo specifically highlighted the 28th percentile simulation path, as it aligns with a pattern he observed: the next market bottom may find support near the previous cycle’s peak. Previously, Sminston With shared another Monte Carlo experiment projecting BTC simulations to 2034, which ran 5,000 total trials. Its results showed no simulated price fell below the current ~$80,000 level; the median result was ~$1.48 million, and even the lowest 5% of outcomes reached ~$464,000. It is important to note that these figures are simulation results based on specific assumptions and historical data, not definitive price predictions. The model’s conclusions are subject to factors including input data, diminishing return assumptions, and changes in market structure.

According to HTX market data, SOL has dropped below $100, currently trading at $99.94, with a 0.83% decline over the past 24 hours.

October 26 (Eastern Time), StoneX initiated coverage of Lumentum (LITE) with a "Buy" rating and a $1,200 price target. The firm is bullish on Lumentum’s supply position in high-speed indium phosphide lasers, optical transceivers, and optical switching, citing management’s statement that AI-related optoelectronic production capacity is almost fully booked through early 2029. Per TradingBeats data, as of press time, LITE and AAOI perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid rose 9.53% and 9.91% respectively in the past 24 hours, with both surging over 10% intraday at one point. Measured from before the public rating report released at 18:19 ET last night, the two contracts subsequently rose approximately 8.16% and 7.90% respectively. LITE is trading at $823.43, with a 24-hour trading volume of around $8.52 million and a funding rate of approximately +0.000625%. After the rating news broke, its open interest (OI) dropped from about $7.47 million to $5.83 million, a decrease of 21.97%. AAOI is at $72.401, with a 24-hour trading volume of roughly $5.47 million and a funding rate of approximately -0.00221%. Its OI fell from about $5.58 million to $3.65 million over the same period, a drop of 34.61%. The price rally coincided with a contraction in positions: two large accounts took a combined profit of around $2.61 million from their LITE and AAOI long positions after the news, with one account liquidating both holdings entirely (0x8afac, 0x3bcae).

Machi(@machibigbrother) has lost all his money on @papertrade_xyz! He also has just $4,517.7 left on Hyperliquid. An hour ago, he sold another Mutant Ape at a loss to fund more trading.