Willy Woo: 5,000 simulations of Bitcoin’s future price trajectory yield a median projection of $1.48 million by 2034.

Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has published an article introducing a BTC Monte Carlo simulation model inspired by Sminston With, which generates price paths based on Bitcoin’s historical market performance via a random number generator to simulate potential future trends. Woo noted the model made three key adjustments: first, it incorporates BTC’s cyclical market structure; second, it reconstructs Bitcoin’s true probability distribution from historical data, rather than fitting it to a preset ideal distribution; third, it uses data from the 2018 market bottom through the 2022 market bottom as input, deliberately excluding earlier BTC market data to better reflect the modern market environment shaped by derivatives, ETFs and rapid liquidation mechanisms. Additionally, the model retains a power-law scaling mechanism to capture the phenomenon of diminishing returns for BTC across each cycle. Woo specifically highlighted the 28th percentile simulation path, as it aligns with a pattern he observed: the next market bottom may find support near the previous cycle’s peak. Previously, Sminston With shared another Monte Carlo experiment projecting BTC simulations to 2034, which ran 5,000 total trials. Its results showed no simulated price fell below the current ~$80,000 level; the median result was ~$1.48 million, and even the lowest 5% of outcomes reached ~$464,000. It is important to note that these figures are simulation results based on specific assumptions and historical data, not definitive price predictions. The model’s conclusions are subject to factors including input data, diminishing return assumptions, and changes in market structure.