Analysis: Bitcoin exchange net outflows have dropped to 1,500 BTC per day, with the current futures market’s long and short sides approaching balance.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that since September 22, BTC has seen continuous net outflows from trading platforms, though the outflow rate has slowed significantly. Currently, the 30-day moving average of BTC net outflows from exchanges stands at around 1,500 BTC per day, half of the 3,000 BTC daily average recorded a week ago. Adler Jr. pointed out that the recent pullback in net outflows is mainly because the large-scale outflow on September 22 has gradually fallen out of the 30-day statistical window, rather than a large amount of BTC flowing back into trading platforms. As long as this indicator remains below zero, the supply of BTC available for immediate sale on exchanges continues to decline. Meanwhile, the 30-day average position direction indicator in the BTC futures market has risen from -0.5 a week ago to 0.3, indicating that long and short sides are generally balanced. This indicator hit 7.6 at the end of August, then mostly stayed slightly below zero since the end of September; daily readings over the past week have fluctuated between -20.5 and 29, showing active market trading but no sustained clear direction. If trading platforms continue to see net outflows, and the futures position direction indicator holds steady above zero, it will provide support for market demand from both spot and futures sides. Conversely, if BTC shifts to net inflows into trading platforms, and the futures indicator falls back below zero, it could mean an increase in sellable supply and stronger bearish momentum.