Who Actually Profited From the Crypto Rally? Major ETH Bullish Institutions Lock in Profits and Exit, the "BTC OG Insider Whale" Still Remains in the Red

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000, with its 24-hour gain narrowing to 3.38%.

U.S. long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, and the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of long-term U.S. bond repurchases has had limited effect. Repurchases mainly improve market liquidity but cannot alter the core pricing of long-term interest rates; what truly determines yields are fiscal deficits, inflation, Treasury supply, and global capital allocation. Against the backdrop of sustained U.S. financing needs and AI-related capital expenditures driving long-term funding demand, the term premium demanded by the market is likely to stay high. U.S. debt pressures are also interconnected with global bond markets and energy risks. Japanese long-term bond yields are at high levels; a further rise could increase incentives for Japanese capital to flow back home, exerting additional selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, risks such as those in the Strait of Hormuz, Russian refineries, and Red Sea shipping could push up costs for refined products, insurance, and transportation, increasing global inflation uncertainty. If the U.S. expands secondary sanctions on Iran, it could further drive up energy and trade costs. As such, the Jackson Hole Symposium will serve as a key observation window. Markets should focus more on how Wash views inflation, long-term interest rates, and balance sheet policies, rather than simply waiting for rate cut signals. For the crypto market, U.S. long-term Treasury yields are a key benchmark for dollar funding costs; if yields remain elevated due to fiscal factors, inflation, and global capital competition, they will continue to compress the valuation space of high-volatility assets. In other words, before there is substantial improvement in deficits, inflation, and financing needs, U.S. Treasury repurchases are more a tool to alleviate pressure than a fundamental solution to reverse the long-term interest rate trend.

As investor enthusiasm for AI trading cools and regulators step up measures to curb demand, South Korea’s chip-linked leveraged ETFs have posted nearly $1 billion in outflows this month. So far, leveraged products tracking Samsung Electronics have recorded $381 million in August outflows, while those tracking SK Hynix have seen $601 million—marking the first monthly outflow for these products since their launch in late May. Notably, during the July sell-off in global AI assets, South Korea’s Kospi index suffered a historic 22% plunge in a single month. In response, South Korean regulators raised the minimum margin requirements for new investors buying such products and mandated a five-day simulation trading period for investors.

On-chain analyst Murphy discusses right-side trading strategies after Bitcoin’s breakout above $80,000. Some traders may wonder: if they buy now, what if BTC drops back to $58,000? A 20% pullback could lead to further declines of 30% or even 40% — this is a common "fear of heights" delusion in right-side trading. Right-side buying typically requires setting stop-loss levels in advance, tailored to each trader’s technical indicators, actual position size, and risk tolerance. Murphy states he frequently uses STH-RP (Short-Term Holder Realized Price) as a key reference metric. Historical data shows that once BTC breaks above STH-RP in the latter half of a bear market, a small uptrend is highly likely to emerge. If the price pulls back to test STH-RP and holds above it, the trend is deemed to continue; if it breaks below, the trend is over. Currently, STH-RP stands at around $70,000 (dynamic). If BTC drops back to $70,000, traders should exercise caution; a daily close below this level warrants a stop-loss. In theory, the stop-loss range for right-side position building is roughly around -10%, rather than waiting for a 25% or larger decline to act. Murphy concludes that trading friction is normal and even necessary, as avoiding such friction could cause traders to miss out on major trends.

CryptoQuant analyst Moreno noted that Bitcoin’s "new whale" group has realized over $1.2 billion in profits over the past three days, marking the largest profit-taking event in the group’s history. Of this total, roughly $614 million was earned on August 20 alone, the highest single-day profit on record. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has rebounded above the short-term whale realization price of around $68,900. On August 23, BTC traded near $77,700, approximately 12.8% higher than the total cost basis of these "new whales". In prior months, some large whales that recently accumulated Bitcoin were sitting on long-term unrealized losses. This rally has completely reshaped their position structure, giving previously trapped capital a sudden opportunity to exit at break-even and lock in substantial profits. The current trend thus constitutes an important demand test. If BTC can hold steadily above the whale cost basis of around $70,000, while profit-taking gradually returns to normal levels, it signals that new demand is effectively absorbing distribution pressure, laying a foundation for the rally to continue. Conversely, if profit-taking remains elevated and the price falls back below this cost basis, the rally may be closer to a "break-even exit rally", with previously trapped holders turning into fresh selling pressure above. The market has now regained profitability; what remains to be proven is whether it can absorb the pressure unleashed by this profit release.

US bitcoin treasury firm Strive (ticker: ASST) CEO Matt Cole has once again reaffirmed that the bull market has only just begun. He stated that while ASST’s stock hit a bear market low in February 2026 and external sentiment was extremely pessimistic, Strive’s team’s long-term conviction never wavered. “We clearly recognize the value of our bitcoin holdings,” Cole said. Executives and directors have been buying additional stock with their own capital, and some directors have joined the company full-time. This highly aligned internal conviction and execution capability laid the foundation for the performance delivered in the subsequent six months. Strive will not forget the steadfast shareholders who supported the company during its toughest times. Now, with the stock surging and market sentiment running high, the team’s core focus remains unchanged: the bitcoin bull market has only just begun, and we will continue to go all-in. Yesterday, Cole published a lengthy bullish article on bitcoin, citing the bitcoin/gold ratio chart. He pointed out that bitcoin has broken through against both the U.S. dollar and gold, signaling the end of the bear market and reinforcing that the next cycle will be the strongest in history. Cole believes three converging forces are creating an unprecedented favorable market environment for bitcoin: the long-term weakening of the U.S. dollar, rising demand for scarce assets in the AI era, and the re-strengthening of the BTC/gold ratio. According to market data from BIT (bit.com), Strive’s U.S. stock price nearly doubled in the past week, breaking above $20. Strive announced yesterday that it purchased 1,110 bitcoin last week at an average price of approximately $73,409, a significant increase from its prior weekly purchase volume. As of August 21, Strive holds a total of 21,356 bitcoin, plus 505,000 preferred shares of Strategy STRC (with a fair value of about $48.57 million) and roughly $171.9 million in cash.